Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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Yeah we did get lucky, not just with the result but also the no non runners. However, looks like we were all sensible with stakes so its all good.
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Good work on the 16.10 gents.
Can’t see much of interest tomorrow although the interesting card of the day goes to Dundalk, which has seven races with 17 runners each. The 16.45 messes it up by only having 16.
Sky and Ladbrokes are showing 4 places 1/4 odds on most of them (non-runners are pretty certain I would guess).
365 and Betfair are showing them all as 3 places only. If Betfair goes to 4 places, they’ll probably be some decent edge opportunities tomorrow morning.
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Dundalk is funny. If you look at the horses they have Reserve 1,2and 3. These won’t run so 365 is right the odds will be 1-2-3, not 4 places. The rest will go to three places once the reserves are removed and they will be removed.
I don’t really understand why, but I think that I am right in what I said.
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Managed to get £826ew on tge 2nd fav at 2.75 in the 410… maxe £160 on place but took £60 loss on underlaying win… would bave been great with bog if won!
Managed only £47 ew on compton £21 @ 29 and rest at 26… shot bolt way too early laying win at 34 and 28 and place at ave 3.4 ffs!!
Still a tasty £165 after commission!+0
Actually if you know the reserves very likely won’t run. And you know the bookie won’t apply a rule 4 because the withdrawn horses are going to be bigger than 14/1. Can you back and lay say mojambo at a close enough match 3.0/3.1 in full knowledge that you will get a reduction factor on exchange and probably not at bookie?! Might tip the odds giving you an arb if the match is close enough….
Make sense?
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Could even try manipulating the exchange reduction factor by pumping money into exchange on the reserves.
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FoG, when are you going to dabble in multi accounting? You’re the smartest guy on here so it pains me not to see you making hundreds like you should be.
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I’m definitely not the smartest!
I am happy enough with how things are going. I am glad that I didn’t come across gambling when I was younger, I think I would have gone full time pretty quickly at the expense of my career, which is a lot more cushy and rewarding than gambling now. And has a future. Gambling would almost certainly have dried up for me by now with account closures.
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Cheers Fog… I should have spotted that!
Interesting idea about the rule 4.
+0I always miss out on these amazing races :(
+011.40 was probably ok but too late to get on anything….possibly one of the earliest races of the year!
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11.40 at Lingfield is standard for this time of year.
Hills chopping odds at Ludlow so High 5 is unattractive.
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Quite the opposite of what I thought is happening with the non runners. Exchange is not giving any reduction, possibly because not enough money traded on them. And bookie has stupid prices for them to make sure that they get a rule 4 when they withdraw the horse – Like Sally Gap @ 7/1 at the bookie when there was a little bit on the exchange at 16.0. The overround with the reserves listed is something like 130%.
Next Reserve to go might be Peace Mission and the bookies are already prepared to make sure that they get their Rule 4 and have him less than 14/1 even though can back on exchange @ 26.0.
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FoG, Rule 4 doesnt apply to reserve horses, I am 99.9% sure on that otherwise bookies would be making millions from it.
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That would make sense Chris.
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