Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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Got a couple of nice arbs on at Wolverhapton earlier for the extra place races at PP and they’ve just cancelled the meeting.
+0The inplay markets on the horses are something that have been bugging me recently…. it seems to be every couple of races that a horse that is trading at a silly price wins (with sometimes one or two that go to short odds on before losing).
+0You would have made a bit on Celtic at the weekend Chris if you laid them when they went 2-0 up…. probably about 1.01 I imagine.
+0Is there a way I can get notified as soon someone posts something on this thread?
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Interesting Chris. Nice £500. Just goes to show the price on the odds reflects people’s expectations of an event occurring, not the actual probability.
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The odds generally dont go to 1.01 unless a team goes 3 up or if its close to full time. Cardiff scored two late goals last night, I think Reading were about 1.05 but thats still more than Brondby who were 1.04 after about 30 minutes.
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Beaser – don’t say that!
I have no knowledge of anything, so everything I bet on is based on the exchange odds being an accurate probability…+0
Well done Chris. 3 from 4 is pretty phenomenal!
+0Yes I agree the markets are regularly wrong concerning the likelihood of teams coming from behind. I posted a thread a while back about huge in play arbs on Skybet and B365 when a team is a goal down with about 10 mins to go. It’s not just the exchanges that can’t price these scenarios up properly it’s the bookies too.
I made a killing of these for well over a year with no restrictions. Stupidly lost my B365 after “guaranteeing profit” on the £50 in play offer otherwise I may still have been going strong.
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Yep I remember discussing that with you Lewdy and also making a big guaranteed profit on those in-play arbs during the Real Madrid vs Legia Warsaw Champions League game last season when, at one point, Legia were 51/19. You have to be super quick though.
+0I think you’re safe for at least 99% of things crispy! Is an area i argued with that corrigan guy on though about exchange prices, in that I believe bookies aren’t stupid with boosts so sometimes will be confident taking on exchange price…. something I think some of us concluded anyway.
Going even more off track there.
For in play I doubt there is a fundamental price inaccuracy at 2-0. But I’ve suspected most in play prices are based on opening price then in play events….. which wouldn’t factor in everything such as how resilient a team is or isn’t, or even what circumstances in a game might motivate a team more+0
Well keep an eye out this evening for teams 2-0 up at half time, I know I will be looking at Watford and Stoke.
Also, theres a Alabama Senate Election going on. Republican lay is 1.35 right now but apparently its “too close to call”???
+0see if tonybet enter the market. haha
or if oddschecker pick it up for dutching/arbs, maybe look later
I often use the bookie prices to guage things like that rather than ‘too close to call’. In reality both are bollocks as brexit and trump were both 5-1 the day before, and I had 16-1 on a Tory overall majority (the election before may ‘strengthened her position before losing that majority).+0
Any takers to lay Chelsea at 1.02?
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I layed Ross County when they were 2-0 up and its now 2-1 with 15 to go. Liability £8.
I’m probably £200 down though as I boosted Burnley then watched the lay odds drift and drift and drift. Honestly thought they would be well up for beating a poor Stoke side and going fourth. 10 minutes for that one to be saved.
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