Bad EW Races NO CHAT

Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?

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feltt1p 7 January 22, 2018 at 4:39 pm

Also, when Betfair do the extra places it’s possible to ‘Edge’ it to the correct number of places. Usually a nice arb in there straight off the bat.

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bbobb 24 January 23, 2018 at 9:23 am

13:00 Leicester…..now down to 8 runners.

The one I got on at 25.0 late last night that was trading at 19 this morning is now a non runner.

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bbobb 24 January 23, 2018 at 9:45 am

Fav on a big drift in that race so everything else coming down.

Maybe risky with the 8 runners and heavy ground.

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MbPunter 24 January 23, 2018 at 9:49 am

Yeah managed to get that at 22/1 this morning. On Transpennine at 20/1 too so expecting another NR!

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feltt1p 7 January 23, 2018 at 9:56 am

Maybe some value in 16:20 Leicester with some bookies going 3 places 1/5, worth keeping an eye on. Could do with another non runner.

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deathstar 39 January 23, 2018 at 9:59 am

I was on Hayley as well. was going to be my first experiment at trading on the exchange seeing as i’m limited to pennies everywhere now. How do you guys work out the comms if you back and lay at the same exchange?

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bbobb 24 January 23, 2018 at 10:04 am

Pacofilha still widely available at 67.0

Place has already been trading under 10.0 so and win being nibbled around 60 so maybe could be value.

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bbobb 24 January 23, 2018 at 10:18 am

Unless you are trying to arb across markets on the exchange you don’t really need to worry about commision.

If you win on a market you pay commision, if you lose you don’t (although there is a big argument about that….as in reality it is the losers who are the one paying the commision).

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MbPunter 24 January 23, 2018 at 10:18 am

Would just work on the basis of 0 commission then take it off the net result.

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beaser 8 January 23, 2018 at 10:20 am

Commission is paid on net winnings not just the winning back/lay so I wouldn’t worry too much.

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deathstar 39 January 23, 2018 at 10:30 am

cheers guys, thats what i thought but wanted to make sure. i was overthinking and confusing myself because you win and lose at the same time. much easier to think about net winnings.

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junji551 0 January 23, 2018 at 10:34 am

it’s rubbish today…managed to get £47 EW on secret legacy with SJ but thats it

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beaser 8 January 23, 2018 at 10:43 am

I’m also (once again) exploring trading the exchange Deathstar. Getting sick of scratching around the bookies I have left.

Now to find an edge…..

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beaser 8 January 23, 2018 at 10:44 am

I think what a history of MB does teach you is that a hell of a lot of the money on the exchange, and certainly at bookies (which effects the exchange), is from punters who have no idea what they’re doing.

Must be opportunities to exploit this with a bit of hard work.

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bbobb 24 January 23, 2018 at 11:09 am

You could probably make money on bad EW races by backing the mid-prices horses on the exchange jusy before the bookies go industry prices.

The win price will start to come down a little as the bookies start laying their arbs off that are taken at the unrealistic win price (which is actually based on the place price).

ie. A horse trading at around 20.0/3.0 for place available at one or two bookies at around 18-1will be cut to 10-1 when the bookies go industry prices. The bookies then start mathcing any win bets taken at 10.0 on the exchange where the price is a lot higher.

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