Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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A penny for people’s thoughts on trading….. guaranteed profit or underlay
Conventionally traders lock in profit, whereas a lot of us are used to creating risk free shots at the win.
I have some thoughts but thought I’d see if others have views
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Mexican carpet fitters all the way
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Underlay, underlay.
Waste of time taking the guaranteed unless your arb is huge.
+0What I was thinking really, the main thing I (think I can) spot is shortening horses so same theory applies to matched betting on the underlay
I guess if you’re laying to back then there is a case for locking profit it or even overlaying
+0I’m in the camp of wanting my original bet to be a winner, so if i laid a horse with a view to a free shot i’d want it to lose.
So if i backed Horse A at 2.0 and it shortened to 1.70 i would underlay for stake back.
But if i laid Horse A for £50 at 2.0 and it drifted to say 3.0 i think i would just back it for £25, leaving the potential profit on the others rather than put £50 back on it.
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Different strokes…
I’d take the money, otherwise I see it as just gambling. Take the £30 or underlay for £60 on an evens shot. Hmm.
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13:30 Chelmsford. 2nd fav.
+0These short priced 2nd faves are the ones i tend to guarantee profit on. 1.5/1.25. Say £100 on i’m taking £20ish rather than risk free shot at £25ish.
+0Least the Bangor one got reduced to 7 runners early, save any time wasting.
Probably get on some in the 3pm Kempton.
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Its not gambling when its risk free though is it?
Given all accounts are on borrowed time, I will always go for the big bucks. Its a sucker punch too when you take the guaranteed but the horse places. Did that once on a 100/1 shot that came third. I took the guaranteed £21 when the underlay was worth well over £200.
I dont think I’ll ever understand why people do ew arbing for guarenteed £10 here and there.
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Lulu Star in that 1.30 race is the one to go for.
34.0 at Hills
+0“Its not gambling when its risk free though is it?”
I think it’s a philosophical question really haha. Given you have the opportunity to take a guaranteed profit, you kind of are.It’s comparable to winning a prize on something and being offered “double or nothing”. I’d say that’s gambling. But if your plan was always to go double, then maybe it’s not? I don’t know. For me I’ve pretty much always taken guaranteed profit unless the underlay felt right (mostly that the guaranteed was so low it was almost not worth doing).
The nuance is probably that if you underlay in the long run, depending on the length of the odds you’re taking, you should in theory make as much money, if not hopefully more.
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If you look up the definition of gamble in the dictionary, it will state the undertaking of a risky action.
Placing an underlay bet is not a risk, its profit or break even.
+0Tell that to my Mrs….
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It depends on if – when you lose on your underlay – you have ever thought ‘I could’ve earned £20 profit if I hadn’t underlaid’. I reckon if you’ve ever thought that, then yes you’re knowingly gambling.
You may think that you never had that money so classify it as risk free but the honest answer is yes, you could’ve taken it. In a similar way you could take a cash out (guaranteed) or let it run (underlay)…just without the bookies overound. Glass half full or glass half empty Chris? :)
Yeah I did see Lulu as a better option, was only allowed an auto stake of £2 though, not even a trader.
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