Bad EW Races NO CHAT

Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?

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April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm

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Chris 24 May 11, 2017 at 3:25 pm

Dragons Tail? As in the second fav? What made you do that for a bad ew? The place arb would have been small. Think you’re missing the idea.

Anyway may have worked well for you, i would let it run. Strong chance he’ll come second.

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orlandosteve 2 May 11, 2017 at 4:21 pm

Was planning to lay very little on the top 3, was a good value bet to place. Let the place run and it won so happy days.

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Mr Crispy 34 May 11, 2017 at 5:36 pm

Why would betting on the second favourite be a bad idea?

At 365 at lunchtime you could get 5.0 on Dragons Tail, at the same to time on betfair exchange’s e/w market it was laying at 4.5ish..

Plus 365 was paying 1/4 and the exchange was 1/5..

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orlandosteve 2 May 11, 2017 at 6:36 pm

19:40@Tipperary West Cork Golan 12/12 Lads.

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bobster 3 May 12, 2017 at 9:25 pm

Live and learn – kept waiting for Hitchcock lay to come down further in the 20:45, ended up drifting a lot, so let it run – didn’t place :'(

Only opportunity tomorrow looks to be Hex 13:45 – 8 runners though

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bobster 3 May 13, 2017 at 10:28 am

Two questions:

1/ Currently I’m backing early (as the prices on the “bad” horses normally seem to reduce throughout the day) – then waiting to lay the win when it’s a relatively low QL – in the mindset that if it drifts, as long as it was a good “bad” race, the place arb should cover some losses. Is this how other people approach it, or would you always back and lay the win at the same time?

2/ Does anyone see value in just not laying the place? By design, you’re often guna end up getting placed, so could there be long term +ev in just not laying it?

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Chris 24 May 13, 2017 at 11:10 am

Mr Crispy – nothing wrong with it but with ew arbing you’re looking for the place arb to be at least 1.0, ideally more. You’re never going to get that on a second fav. Unless you’re just looking for small profits here and there of course but if thats the case you’re better off doing a Bet 20 Get 10 free promo. Most of us do it for the bigger wins and you only get that betting on outsiders.

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Dave_Jones 12 May 13, 2017 at 12:34 pm

@ bobster recently read on here that one or two people don’t lay the place, also seem to remember someone else was doing this some time back.

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Chris 24 May 13, 2017 at 7:55 pm

8.15 Thirsk

Sir Runs Alot – 19.0 at various bookies
Triangulate – 29.0 at various bookies

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Marv 2 May 14, 2017 at 12:27 pm

anybody on 1.55 curragh and 2.00 ludlow yet

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pebblehead 0 May 14, 2017 at 1:02 pm

Hey Chris am I missing something, your saying back an outsider in bad ew. Odds on win part are always miles away – eg: 2.00pm Ludlow Taras rainbow back (41.00)/Lay (85.00)
Whats the script on the win part backing outsider?

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pebblehead 0 May 14, 2017 at 1:09 pm

Actually just run it through calc, outsiders do provide more profit even if odds on the win part are skewered..Hmmm interesting

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Chris 24 May 14, 2017 at 1:27 pm

Take a loss on the win part or if you’re happy taking a risk and trust the favourite then overlay.

Odds are usually tightest earlier in the day, if you’re looking to minimise losses on the win part.

I’m not telling anyone how to do it, I’m just saying that ew arbing isnt really about guaranteeing £2-3 here and there, if thats what you want, then a Bet 20 Get 10 is an easier way of doing that. Ew arbing can bring big profits.

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MbPunter 24 May 14, 2017 at 1:37 pm

Otter Moon 12/1 laddies. 2pm Ludlow.

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MbPunter 24 May 14, 2017 at 1:39 pm

Non runner right on cue!

Least should be short enough in the 2 to place.

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