Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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Chris, since you underlay the place, does that mean you are taking a loss overall when the horse doesn’t place? (given the loss on the win when there isn’t an arb?).
Or do you underlay the win as well when there isn’t a decent match- for example, £50EW on a 21.0, lay £50 at 29.0 and hope the fav/something else wins?
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Depends on the race John.
Over the jumps, where theres a really short priced favourite you can usually trust that he/she will win so I overlay making sure I am not exposed too much in the event my horse does win. I think on the flat short priced favourites get beat far more regularly so yeah I take the loss but if the back and lay odds are ridiculously far apart then I’ll think twice about whether its worth it or not. As mentioned the best time I think for backing and laying the win part is early in the morning as most of the time, the outsiders will drift throughout the day.
Hard to advise a strategy really, its all about what the market presents on the morning and if and when non runners kick in.
+0Cheers Chris, I appreciate your replies.
Don’t think I’ve got the nerve to overlay as I have a tendency to find winners at a startling rate in those situations :)
+0Anybody else think that the bookies are tightening up the odds in these bad ew races?
The 13:40 at Yarmouth today looks like a great race for this, but the win market is miles out.
It leaves you practically gambling on the horse you pick shortening to make a decent profit.
Noticed it on quite a few recent possible races. Anybody else noticed?
+0Or the exchange odds are skewed? Bookies/Exchange odds are driven by completely different factors, be thankfull when you do get a close match rather than bemoan every market that isn’t 2 clicks apart or less.
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I think you get a better match earlier in the day. As the day goes on and bookies take a lot of money on the bad ew horses they start shortening their prices drastically to minimise their liabilities.
Having said that I have begun my ew arbing career today in earnest after losing most of my acca insurance offers, and I targeted that race.
And I got Peace Dreamer at 13/14.5 ten minutes before the off giving me 3.4/2.4 on the place which I underlayed and he did place. In the same race Higgys was also 80/1 at some bookies giving 17.0 for the place which was laying at 9.0. I don’t have the liability for laying 80/1 horses so gave him a miss but notice he also placed.
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On the contrary I’d say they are pretty generous with some of these odds. Peace dreamer was available at 12s for ages then tumbled in very last minutes.
Liquidity at exchange is usually the issue, I got a bit on peace and laid at 16, then a bit more when I saw the lay was 14.5. With hindsight (or more experience on this!) I could gone in with more and laid later
Think I laid place at 2.44 but again with hindsight or experience this tumbled to evens just before the off.The place was also tradable, could backed at 2.66. I had a back order at 2.72 next to be matched when there was no liquidity on the win market, but cancelled when I got on at the bookies.
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Leicester 1550. Is anyone doing anything.
Balinrobe 1830 too risky right now. Maybe look at it later if it’s still 8 runners.
+0Leicester 1550, I backed Doreen e/w at 5 at Paddy, haven’t laid it, will do so just before the race.
Not sure if that’s a good choice or not – simply trying my hand at ew arbing…
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Adio, you gotta check oddschecker he is 5.5 on a lot of other sites.
And don’t know it’s a great idea to get Doreen as his lay is quite far off.
I am tracking Munstead Star he is 8.0/8.8 on the lay at the moment. Need it to get just a little bit closer and the deal is on. Also watching Dreamtide out of the corner of my eye.
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Maybe it was a lot closer this morning and if so then just ignore what I’m saying about Doreen!
+0Yeah, I was thinking about Munstead Star this morning as well. Might back him too at another bookie.
+0Adio, don’t back it yet, the lay may not come in.
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I’m taking 8.0/8.2 on the win there on Munstead. See how it plays for the place now.
+0Munstead 8/8 Hills/Smark.
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