Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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Cheers TP likewise. Only 2/3 races I feel like whacking on today at NEWM (due to big fields)
+0Yes this works best with a small field.
+0Just an observation but you want to primarily be worried about the implied odds not the field size.
Aware the 2 are linked, but i’d rather be backing an even money horse in a 12 runner field than any of four 11/4 shots in a 4 runner race unless there is a big difference on qls+0
Good point Betman. short price shots are for sure the best- today though in the mid to big field race there are few/none short price runners.
I hardly ever back above a 5-1 at the very most-in these mb2s- except perhaps in a small field 5/6 runners with a very short odds on fav.
Just for the record- for anyone not sure -there has to be a minimum of 5 runners to qualify as a mb2 race
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Just noticed that sadly the best race today for mb2s the 335 NM has now dropped below the 5 runner cut off
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Wouldnt re-open that can of worms matchthis, people can get really touchy and on their period about that subject.
That topic already exists sleepless, its this one, says so right at the top see so the suggestion to open one for MBS/sharbing is more valid. There seems to be a lot more activity on that side of things as we go through a dry spell on bad ew.
+0Shame re the 15:35 had my eye on that one – will not bother today now with the shops.
For me its all about the QL’s and how much they amount to that will drive whether or not I will get involved and as Scabbadab says the odds tend to be better on the smaller fields albeit not always.
I also take the view that there is a better chance of a horse coming second when the field is smaller – mathematically that seems logical to me – that said I wish I could figure out a way of calculating the % chance of a horse coming 2nd taking into account the win odds and the number participating at the start.
Personally I don’t think the each way odds are that accurate since I find it hard to accept that the odds of coming 2nd are the same as say coming say 3rd/4th but happy to be proved wrong.
+0Take the odds of winning and subtract the odds from the Place 2 to get the odds of coming 2nd.
+0Nice boosted arb and a some High5 in the first at Exeter.
Grounds looks heavy so could be a chance of a few today.
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Yes the sharbing stuff should be in another thread. I’m happy enough for it to be buried/hidden in here though because eventually if it’s an avenue that I decide to go down I don’t want it over exploited and the bookies start to close down the opportunities…. so in a way I don’t want a nice clean beginner friendly thread to discuss sharbing and hand hold newbie sharbers!
+0sorry maybe 4 runners was confusing example! I’d just done 10bet mbn2d to sp with 4 runners and it was easy maths for a sensible overround though!
In my opinion you just need the win odds to work out 2nd. That’s what I used for 2nd and 3rd in my place odds calculator and that reflects the market near the off pretty well
When you throw 4th in is when you start to see less of a correlation to win probability, which is why the 16 runner handicaps work out so nice (to tie us back into the post topic!!)
+0It was worked out that give or take a couple of points every horse has an equal chance of finishing 4th (in a race paying 4 places).
+0Start a daily horse racing thread. Would separate the two and probably promote more activity.
+0Thks Bbobb – I am sure you are not far off with the 2nd place odds – that said I still think having extra/less horses in a race will have an impact on the odds – perhaps I am over thinking this!
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