Bad EW Races NO CHAT

Extra place race, but say skybet will offer 5 places at 1/5 odds but bet365 will offer 1/4 for 4 places meaning the skybet off is practically useless

Don’t agree with that comment Tony. Sometimes the 1/4 odds 4 places is better than 1/5 5 places- often its not. Basically what ever odds/ offer u have placed bets with you lay off with those terms/oods in mind/ pretty obvious tbf

Today I caught Kansas kid at 16/1 545 galway 10 mins before race- while the lay was 17.0 and 4tp was 3.9- thus I had a small arb for the full amount and a free shot at good payout if it hit 5th- (It turned out going off about about 14.0/3.3 so I had an even nicer arb 👍) My rough estimate is it had about a 10% of hitting 5th- for a profit of over €300 (without the late lay extra value) So at the time of bet I had taken something like €25 of value for myself (after comma etc- without factoring in possible BOG if I had laid straight away) so if the place arb wasn’t as favourableI could have perhaps allowed up to €15 if loss on the place lay to justify the bet. Not an exact science but after a while u just know when things have value or not without doing exact maths.

My own feeling is that when it’s a wide open handicap with a favorite say 6/1 or better then perhaps 1/4 4 places is often the better option but if the favorite starts about say 3/1 or so and it’s close to 16 runners say 17/18 then I def prefer to be looking at 5tplace possibilities. Again I have no concrete proof this is true just my own belief
I def don’t believe there is one always pref to othe..all depends on the dynamics of race-

Now as I’m mulling this example over myself- I’m seeing that the same bet at 1/4 4 places would have locked me in a place arb shot at a similar amount about €75 after comma- and based on the odds would have hit the frame 1 in 4- so somewhere in the €20 value per bet mark- only a little less then my rough estimate of €25 value on the 5tp. So not a lot in it either way🤔

On that particular bet Hbet.. it was €75 ew

Scab it must come second nature when you’ve done it so many times, I’ll try to give you some figures. I use Oddschecker to see the best prices and what’s being offer Horse A is 21 ( I prefer decimal) Bookie A offering extra place at 1/5 but bookie B isn’t their offering 1/4 for normal places. I use Smarkets so the lay is 22 at the time and the place is say 6.2. Would you look at this as an option to try and get that extra place or move on to the next race? I seem to face this scenario a lot. Thanks again for the insight it helps a lot to try and understand value vs risk