Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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One of previous posts(many!referring to weather the 5tp was better or not for me this example… should read a ‘little more on this occasion’ rather than a little less! Couldn’t sleep well later knowing I’d left that error in( other ones I can cope with🙃)
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I’ll try to break down that example of Horse A you have Tony. If that 21 and the lays are 22/6.2 hen it has no value at all on (1)1/4 odds 4 places
Small loss about 5% on the win. 21/22
Small loss on the place 6.0/6.2 (I’d do the simple fractional calculation here 20/1 divide 1/4 = 5 then add 1 (always) to get the decimal value 6.0Unlikely the 5tp would offer to much on this losing 4tp shot
2 (5tp)
Same loss on the win
Loss on the place 5.0/6.2Let’s say you did €20 each way here
Lay about 19 on the win
Lay about 16 on the win
To cover your 20 ewayHen it’s a place no place loss- based on odds roughly 1 in 5
When it’s a win /no win or place loss- roughly 1/22 + 4/22 = 5/22
So every 22 races you will save €5 losses 17 times
€85 lossesThe question is how many times will you hit the 5th spot- Hard to say it’s not a science/ at very least 1- prob closer to 2
If it’s 2/22 hitting the 5 th then that’s 2 occasions out of the 17 non placed efforts then those 2 5th spots will yield €100 back at the bookies – which will be profit there minus the €5 you lost on the lays . So 2 occasions out of 22 when you hit a €95 profit (roughly)€190 profit on these if it’s twice minis the overall losses incurred when not hitting €85 roughly it’s a small overall profit of €105 after doing 22 x €40 = €880 in bets-. This is before commissions are taken into the equation. Prob somewhere in the €15-€20 range for all that. If it only hit once then you would be 22 races -€85 in misses •€95 on the hit for 5th— 15/20 in comma= tiny loss.
So overall a decent set of ofds for a pop at the extra place based on the fact that it’s pretty obvious you will hit the 5th more frequently than the roughly break even 1/22- but nothing to give up the day job for👍😅+1I rarely bother with 1/5 top 5 if im honest. Once its 1/5 top 6 (or more) then there’s good value there
Especially if BetFair Sportsbook offer extra places then you can use the “Edge” feature to your advantage
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These calculations/ rambles were done whilst having s few beers out. Hopefully they made some sense and are elidgible😁
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Don’t rule em out mate the shorter the fav gets the better they become. Had one a week or so ago with a a fav at about 7/4 and it was rich pickings- prob also on the 1/4 odds also. All depends I guess which firm is giving out out the value price at any time and then obviously u go along with what place terms they are offering.
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That last post was reply to Enigmas post👍
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And I think my rambling posts showed roughly that the 5tp 1/5 the odds was better than 1.4 4 places in both my Kansas kid 16/1 and Tony’s random 20/1 rag. So each option should always be looked it if available and if nothing’s there then leave the race.
For Tony I’d say just keep an eye on all possible races and go for it when it’s clearly a good value shot(whatever race) and leave it when it’s marginal/not obvious value until you have done more stuff👍
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Scab thanks for the breakdown, I’ve come from the matched betting and learned about this. My mindset has always been risk free betting. This is much more Expected Value betting so though similar not the same.
I might make a separate fund for this and try to track say 20 extra place races and see the overall profit.
Horse selection will obviously make a massive difference to my EV do you have a criteria for which horse to select or just closest odds?
Again massive thanks, sorry for what could seem obvious questions!
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No prob Tony/ hopefully all those long winded rambles were useful
Of course I see where your coming from ie Risk free match betting to this bad ew/extra place stuff which can come with some small losses and a bit of risk sometimes
On the extra place races, I myself used to do far too many without really looking to much into how much value I was really getting and am much more selective now. As a rough guide I’d say look for extra place races where the fav is pretty strong/short say around 2/1 in a 4 places EPR and maybe 3/1-4/1 in the 16 r plus races, the value will be much better in the same way a small field bad ew race will have better opps the shorter the price of fav is👍+0
Today looks like kind of day I like no stand out races but lots of potential small value opps
Good chances
700 Newcastle (9)
410 Yarm (9)Could be?
630 Newcastle (9)
715 Galway (9)
350 Cheps (6)
240 Yarm (8)
430 Redcar (5)
545 Galway (7)Extra place?
450 Chep
520 Chep
645 Galway
515 GalwayShame the 340 Yarmouth has dropped under 16 r as 5 places there with some firms would have been very tasty.
Plenty to work with on paper- gonna need a big float today I think.
Good luck👍+0
Oh yeah Tony- always check the terms for amount of runners each firm require to qualify for an extra place race. They can vary by 1/2 runners
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Also the 645 Galway at 1/4 4 places could be good and the 800 Newcastle EPR May be ok🤔
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my Optimism is waning a bit regarding that big! List of possible value races as up till now only squeezed out a few minor crumbs in a handful of races hopefully online odds are better. Hopefully catch better pops closer to race times.
Also the person who reported one of my rambles yestterday for inappropriate content (only trying to help out new recruit😃) should also report my post yesterday on other thread regarding having €200 to win on Western Victory(well named😀) being un lay able due to betfair exchange issues as it has no relevance to ‘matched betting’ and coining in a fortunate €800 prof may also came across as boastful/in poor taste👍
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And Tony if your having trouble calculating value/odds on extra place/bad E way place odds use betfair exchange as a guide as unlike s markets etc u will be able to (depending on liquity at time) what the various place markets are laying for ie 2/3/4 and even 5 . The 5tp market can sometimes be used to lay also if you have a good position in an EPR and prefer to lock in a prof rather than chase the bonus place👍
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As mentioned before BF can be used as a tool without logging in/being tracked!
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