Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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I missed Percy this morning! Was going to slap a load on at 26 and as I went to he halved in price so I left him! Anyone on La Rav in the 19.35? Seemed to have caught him at the right time, he’s coming in nicely.
+0Tony, you’re bang on. EV will always work out in the end but you have to play the value on everything and everything, or it could take a very long time to show any form of profit. I always lay, especially the win, but I do let my intuition allow me to let things run a bit longer these days and most of the time it does work out in my favour. But yes, laying at the opportune time and not laying at all are entirely different things.
+0In terms of laying at the right time, obviously thats a real art / skill, but I have noticed a trend over time that long shot horses (say 50/1 or above) will quite often come in on the Exchange at one point before the race, but only come in once, and then drift / stay very long odds even when the liquidity poors in ~20 mins before the off
They seem to sort of “take turns” coming in. So in other words it seems worth taking any close matches (say 100/1 laying at 130) on the long odds rather than waiting for the liquidity.
I’ve had a few where i’ve layed a number of long odds really low who have all drifted out before the off.
Then again, maybe this is simply determined by whether money comes for the SP fave or not
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Tony if you placed a bet you have done so because it is/you believe it is value/an arb (hopefully) So by laying it off you are losing around 2% of your value (the commision) And by not laying you are simply waiting for all your value taken to come out in the wash..so to speak. So its not gambling..it is allowing for the swings of variance👍
Tolayornottolay has long become the much more relevant conundrum to the simalar age old Shakespear one.
In ny experience it is Tolay..certainly at least 50-70%👍 to help keeps things ticking along steadily enough🤔
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Interesting stuff on the longshots Enigma. Certainly something I will look into/study a bit when I get some away👍
+0And La Bav keeps coming in nicely! Took him at 26 and he’s now laying at 10.5. Just a shame I’m still an unconfident newbie at each way arbing and only plopped £20EW on! Still a very good return in % terms.
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Sounds like a cracker Deej👍 Ive stopped looking now at the races for today..good luck👍
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I guess where I do allow for the swings of variance is with when I lay the win and place (90% or so just before off) I simply place the bet when.I can see the horse has entered arb territory and let nature take its course on how it develops by race time. Many lay the win asap and wait for the place lay near off (most times one has to wait for the placedue to poor liquidity/over rounds on the place markets early on) This is also allowing somewhat for the swings of variance to balance out.
If one plays it safe early on in their matched betting/arbing journey – and builds up a steady increasing bankroll.. then that cash is like poker chips and you will always be playing with ‘the houses’ money ..and then you should have no problem putting your chips in the pot when you kbow you have an edge and changing up tactics/taking more calculated value ‘risks.’🤔
+0I suppose that if each horse in the 24 hours or so before the race will go through ups and downs then you’re hoping to pick each one off and lay it at different points in the day, so (for example) as soon as the lay odds are one tick below your back odds you lay it off. If you have the time to keep track of the race every 10 mins or so then there’s probably a good chance you can take advantage of each fluctuation. Maybe. Or maybe it doesnt matter because the whole market will move in proportion anyway; lay now or lay later you’ll get the same total loss just on different horses.
Am I making any sense?
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Best time to experience the rush of gambling…or to change up Bruce Lees legendary quote (replacing the words fieding with gambling) ‘The Art of gambling widout gambling’ Is when you have a nice value bet in an extra place race. I never lay the 4/5 place markets- which I could and maybe🤔 should do sometimes. I always lay the win and minimum place markets off as close as poss to my stakes- and let the extra place/s run. These races are just about the only occurences I allow myself to really experience the buzz (which can lead to the darkside) of gambling…widout gambling- when I could have locked in a prof on the additional place markets ie 4tp/5tp
May start to consider changing this tactic up sometimes and try laying some off on the higher place markets -when in really good posistions🤔+0
Sounds good Enigma👍 Sounds like an interesting take on scalping. Worth investigation👍
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Typical slim pickings Saturday. Aside from the 210 Ascot there is next to nothing. Extra place offers will prob throw up the values today🤔
+0I tend to keep saturdays to my matched betting and focus on the bad ews in the week for that reason!
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Aye👍 Still the eps should be decent esp if anyone has a decent pp/sky account for their 6 place giveaway in the 440.
+0Bit of value on Sparkle Roll on the 14:45 Ascot with Sky (paying 4 places) – 34/38 on win and 7.6/5.2 on place
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