Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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Tomorrows…early thoughts…based on current low liquid prices.. and assuming all hcaps will be an EPR with at least a few firms…
1245 Yarmouth (12r hcap) Fav 4.2 (1.5/10) Not great on papes.
1320 Yarmouth (12r hcap) Fav 5.0+ (1/10) Will leave Tony to conjure some magic for us in that one.
1505 Yarmouth (11r Bad EW) Fav 1.67 (5/10) Could be good- shortest fav of the week so far.
1540 Yarmouth (11r Bad EW) Fav 1.87 (3.5/10) Promising.
1650 YARMOUTH (9r Bad EW?) Fav 2.6+ (0.5/10) Doubtfull/U never know!
1725 Yarmouth (12r hcap) Fav 5.4+ (0.5/10) Another one for ‘The Magician’!
1410 Kempton (11r Bad EW) Fav 2.04 (2/10) Could develop- should be some crumbs at least
1520 Kempton (12r Hcap) Fav 2.8+ (4/10) Very solid potential
1630 Kempton (12r Hcap) Fav 4.4+(2/10) Should be ok- could develope
1705 Kempton (12r Hcap) Fav 4.8 (1.5/10) Nothing too write home about atm
1740 Kempton (12r Hcap) Fav….? (?/10) Prices too schu whiff now- prob not vintage to say the leastWell, could be 11 races worth inspecting (maybe offers in others???).. Dont think its gonna pay for xmas but could well be solid chiseling kinda day…Shoud be best day so far this week .. deffo better than todays minimals IMO..After todays un inspired lay in- I for one well certainly be tuned in for start of play (10ish)
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Hey Nice one Andy. TBH it wasnt a great day on the value front..only a late rally mainly inspired by the return of ‘Big Arb’ Tony made it worth the battling..Tomorrows looking more lively (posted a wee races to keep an eye/ear on list) Hopefully you will back be in the thick of it tomorrow..
+0Interesting that you both go for the jackpot. I used to, but I never seem to hit them. I think I hit a couple a few cheltenham’s ago when I had loads of the field covered, but since then I don’t remember hitting any! So then I started making use of the lower place and laying on the extra place tabs. I rarely take notice of where they place now, just if they place.
Having said that, I have started tracking more stats for my EW bets now to see how many do hit the places and wins etc. I want to see for the return is over a larger sample size to see if I should move towards an full underlay on the place, or even not laying the win (like Scabba often does).
Also keen to keep an eye on the price movement of selections to see if there is any scope for trading just on the exchange in case I lose more bookies.
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Nice one MRM…interesting stuff. EPR’s can certainly go on very long runs without hitting the extra place spot, which as I know myself can be a right downer after creating many value shots and actually be losing dosh on them for long periods. Doing whats right to help one stay ‘in the zone’ is the best option Id say.
Regarding not laying the win (esp on 10-1 and above shots) in bad eways.. this has, according to my own study of my own 100+ bad eway naps at 10-1 and above, proved to actually be a negative long term option (ive also looked at a few hundred other bad eways from the last year or so) And the results show – regardless of how big the eway arbs went off- that the win part on the early ew prices taken was actually showing losses (which would mean the SPs were extremly dire!)- These ‘losses’ was offset to an overall +20% ROI when adding in the place side of the bets. Off the top of my head, id say my own naps on my thread without doing any laying were showing around -20% on the win part and about +40% on the places. A much better ROI than +20% would have come from either (1) laying the win in full/as much as poss and not laying the place or (2) overlaying in full whenever possible- esp on the 20/1+ shots- as they pretty much never win!! (the only 3 winners i picked up over 20-1 came in big field EPRs) The value is deffo in the places IMO, and laying full stakes for free shot at profit or an overlay stratergy (perhaps splitting the arb difference- so an equal prof either way is locked in) This has all led me to believe that these are the best 2 optimal profit laying options.
I’ve not studied EPR’s historical results in much detail and am happy to stay with the basic stratergy on them for now of minimal/no loss lays on the win/and 3TP lays as much of stakes as possible- and chase the pay off. But my guess is- if your prepared to ride the storms- that minimal/no place laying in these will may well be the best optimal long term stratergy. But dont think theres really any long term differences in the laying stratergies in EPRs- IMO only long term benefits to minimising laying in these is to save on commisions- but few really want to suffer long/big losing swings so a laying stratergy off some sort is needed!!
Looking into shorter price bad ew arbs in the under 10/1 area may well show different results. I havnt gone in depth at studying those.
+0Cheers Scabba, that’s really useful info.
I’ve dabbled with most of the different approaches to bad eways & EPRs (apart from the non-laying) approach but am not that consistent with my approach and mix it up a bit. I wanted to start tracking the no-lay vs lay win and fully underlay place vs lock-in on the place arbs (which I tend to do more often than not).
I agree that the value is in the place. What I want to find out is how I can get the most out of it (or at least improve what I’m doing already) and if, long term, it is better to fully underlay, That may well end up being some sort of hybrid approach like underlaying places on selections between 10-1 & 30-1 and locking in on place arbs above that, or something.
From just the past two days, my profit would have been double if I had fully underlayed all places having picked 5 placed horses out of 10 (2 in that last race just because of Tony though!) I think that strike rate will come down but I want to see what the results are like over a much larger sample.
I also want to see if I can improve the profit I can squeeze out on the places – learning when to hold off laying till closer the off, or maybe laying off a bit sooner if the win is drifting etc. Scenarios like that Secratario earlier. I layed the place at 2.36 but should have waited as the win price was still coming in and so was the place. On the flip side, if I had been prepared for the Jazz Party race, I probably would have locked in a much higher place lay – I was just lucky it was so close to the off and the place lay steamed in.
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Mr M, I’ll do some digging from my Cheltenham bets regarding EPR’s but I’m sure I hit 4 or 5 extra places though Sky giving 6 places in some races massively helped.
I’m hopeful for Ascot in a couple of weeks.
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Thanks for the heads up on tomorrow’s races Scabba!
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No worries Tony. Blimey Ive either been studying the races or posting stuff during and after about races pretty much non stop since waking up (strolled to the shop and cooked one munch) and have just noticed the day has passed!! Misses locked out from travelling to Ireland atm- so on me own with no one telling me to give it all a breather! lol. Kip soon/wake up/repeat! will try and add an hours stroll outside into the mix tomorrow!
+0Brunel’s boy currently 81 with Lads and Coral – Laying at 70s in the 15:05 best beway race of the day – be quick. Got up to 101 with Lads boost
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Morning MM. Nice spot mate- sadly in the rush to get a wee bit on- it snicked in to 50’s. Looks nice with the boosted 100s!!
All I squeezed on so far is a boosted 22-1 on Sea Fox in the 320 EPR. Not tipping that up as liquity went soon after
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Hard scanning atm- back n forth back n forth! all to get on just 2/3 shots so far. Your Brunel Bay 80-1 could be on course to wrap up the Monster arb of the week?? Had to join the party very late for a dab at 33s!! Happy with my Sea Fox 23.0. Liquity/moves limited atm- gonna take a break/put some dosh in the bank. Hopefully it revs up a bit in half n hour or so
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Case of fastest fingers atm as value prices are being cut too fast to post!. Monster steam on fav in the 320 EPR- Making it a big value erp as it stands
+0Took a boosted 7.5 on Plunger in the 3.20 was 7.4 on exchange, as soon as I hit go it drifted, out to 10.5 in 5 mins!?!
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Morning Andy. All the horses odds plunged a bit in that race as the fav steamed in ultra rapid! Was a huge win arb on the fav in one slow firm for quite a bit- But I resited lumping on as it may have lead to a gubbing?! Its still steaming in. EPR of the week for sure atm- hopefully yours comes back in a bit- should be able to rack up a few good arbs in that one before the off
+0Managed to get on at just the wrong time! Will have to see what position i’m in later.
Your sitting pretty on Sea Fox 😀
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