Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Thanks Chris.
I’m always keen to try to learn something new but my dabbles with picking longer odds horses for bad ew races and laying closer to the off has gone wrong as often as it has gone right!
So I end up backing and underlaying simultaneously..
I have zero horse knowledge though!
+0What I don’t understand is why the expected value from Bad EW races over long term is positive. From what I’ve read, people are backing early on and also laying the win part early on too( if the odds are close), and delay laying the place part untill close to the race. However, there is no way of knowing if the lay odds will drift or shorten in the run up to the race. It seems to be guesswork / luck picking a horse such that its place odds shorten. It could equally go the opposite way, and then you are making a loss.
So it seems to me that profits/ losses should cancel each other out, as you are picking an outsider horse at random, more or less…
Can someone explain why you end up with a profit long -term?
+0Outsiders may be better value per £1 staked. But i don’t think 2nd or 3rd faves should be ignored.
If your max on the win is say £500 at the bookies.
Random example..
20 ew at 25/1. Place 6.0/3.0
100 ew 5/1. Place 2.0/1.65.
Both of those have similar EV.
+0Is this thread returning to page 1 for everyone after posting?
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Have you guys thought of getting together and setting up a private consortium to post your arbs and other tips instantly?. Not really sure how to do it, use a messaging service of some sort. The forum is limited and slow, by the time the tip is posted the price usually goes. Pooled knowledge will be alot more profitable. Just an idea.
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ps as the very first post states. Yep. going to page 1.
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Adio have a read of page 1 Of the Q&A thread, you need to understand the rationale behind these races. You’ll see why the place arb appears.
Yes the horse may drift between initial stake and laying the place, but only once out of my several hundred bets has it drifted so bad that the place lay was seeing a substantial loss. And indeed if you cover a few horses in a race (as I did in that race), you’ll almost certainly find that other horses have steamed in proportionately.
A small IM group would probably be more efficient. But there is a part of me that enjoys sharing a good selection with public lurkers to take more from the bookies
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1.30 Nottingham is an absolute beauty. They’ll probably be a few non runners today given the rain but we should be ok.
A few races at Punchestown look good too but personally I stay away from Irish racing so wont be getting involved there.
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My Lord and Master, Ghazan and Corgi are the ones to watch.
Trickyish race as quite a few newcomers so trusting the market and finding the best odds is the way to go.
I’ve taken 13.0 on My Lord and Master at Sportingbet to start off with but only gone £40 ew as worried it could drift.
+0Missed the 20/1 on Corgi, 16/1 still looks ok though.
+0Hi Chris… bit random but is there any chance or place to look for screen shots or video tutorial walk through guides on what to look for….. best prices (back n lay) and best times or exactly when to put bets on etc for us newbies trying to get to grips with all of this. No worries if not
+0Looking at the lay odds I’m assuming you haven’t layed the win yet? Taking this to a new level now.
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Are you laying the win part of these straight away Chris or letting it ride until closer to the off?
+0Corgi 17 at william hill still if you’re quick
+0Corgi 17 at william hill still if you’re quick
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