Bad EW Races NO CHAT

Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?

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ncfcmikey
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ted1 0 October 27, 2017 at 10:39 am

Huge value in the Cox Plate taking place in the early hours in Australia.

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bbobb 24 October 27, 2017 at 10:52 am

17:30 Cheltenham Coral are going 4 places and looks like they are also doing faller insurance.

Faller insurance is one I will only be using if there is another offer on the race,

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matchedem
Blocked
10 October 27, 2017 at 11:11 am

All falling into line with faller assurance i see :):)

Cox plate Im struggling to see value…2 many evenly matched horses behind Winx

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FoG_BLoG 60 October 27, 2017 at 11:15 am

Nobody mentioned the Chelteham 16.55. Too risky with 8 runners?

Hows the weather.

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MbPunter 24 October 27, 2017 at 11:21 am

Yeah bookies being obviously cautious with their Cox Plate prices.

Can get Seaburge at 151/200 at stars/sky. Big place arb. Will keep an eye out for some of the more likely challengers.

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MbPunter 24 October 27, 2017 at 11:25 am

Didn’t spot that 4:55. Taken Point of Principle though at 365. Tiny max!

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FoG_BLoG 60 October 27, 2017 at 11:28 am

Cox Plate most bookies are Antepost but NRNB. I find big arbs there 19/26 on Royal Symphony on PP gives 4.6/2.46 on the place. Could guarantee about a fiver on a ten ew stake I think.

I dont think will have the safety net of BOG though on Antepost prices.

Not sure how to play this. Wait for the early prices?

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FoG_BLoG 60 October 27, 2017 at 11:46 am

Sorry. PP dont let you go ew on Antepost bets, or maybe just this race, or maybe just me. I dont seem to be able to find the ew tick box.

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bbobb 24 October 27, 2017 at 11:51 am

How are we falling into line with faller insurance?

I just said I will not be doing it, I’ll only be using it as additional (limited) value on other offers.

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bbobb 24 October 27, 2017 at 12:09 pm

First, and most likely looking, race down to 5 runners so no High5.

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Chris 24 October 27, 2017 at 12:17 pm

Yeah annoying that, had a nice arb on Its All Guesswork, hope he doesnt win now.

Cant say its the most “likely” race though, no basis to think that.

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Chris 24 October 27, 2017 at 12:20 pm

As for 4.55 as well as being high risk, its not really bad ew as there are a cluster of horses around the same prices which dont even go above 10/1. Arbs on the places will be tiny.

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bbobb 24 October 27, 2017 at 12:36 pm

I think it’s fair to say some races are more likely than others.

In my opinion Novice races tend to be more likely than Handicaps, 6 or 7 runners better than big fields and the longer the better. And most importantly a short priced fav that gives you a good chance of actually betting on the winner.

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Chris 24 October 27, 2017 at 12:54 pm

Anything can and does happen on the day though. You can get 20/1 horses winning by 10 lengths. I would argue that ground is a bigger factor. If its heavy then the pace will be a lot, lot slower.

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FoG_BLoG 60 October 27, 2017 at 12:55 pm

On the 4.55 the fav has drifted out. He was 1.9, so odds on when I checked first this morning so it looked better. Agree it probably hasnt developed into a great bad ew race but still there was and may be some value.

Anyway I got Dans le Vent at 5.0 and Point of Principle at 11.0 so are now 1.8/1.55 and 3.0/2.26 arbs on the place with 4 hrs for the place market to tighten up a bit more.

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