Scabbas Bad Each Way Naps

LOCKOUT finally coming to an end in a few days time! June 1st the day meetings will gently begin resuming in the UK- Followed by an 8th June resumption in Ireland. Always thought 3 months or so would be the time ‘THEY’ would keep the shutout going- although optimisticaly was hoping it would be less. I made it through this barren period myself without going completly loco with a mixture of Horse racing histrorical studies/Xbox and YouTube!
Am just updating the ‘story so far’ results/performances of all my ‘Naps’ by adding in the week or so’s worth I posted since my last stats breakdown to clear the path for continuing the thread/quest Post Lockout on the June 1st…..

So keeping with the recording of results criteria of my previous 97 recorded naps (posted on page 14) Im now adding in these last 11 naps for an overall total…

108 naps- 108 x $50 = Total staked $5400
Returns $6297. Profit $897. ROI + 16.70 %

That Irish run of 11 naps missing the frame knocked a big hole in the previous 97 naps ROI.

Having mentioned before in my posts the best ways of increasing these profits is in some form of laying. There are many different ways arbers apply laying to their arbs.
1. Lay the win as full to stakes as poss as soon as possible and then lay the place off for full stakes close to the off time.
2. Lay the win off as full to stakes off early/late and leave the place arb un-laid.
3. Overlaying the win and places for as much as the arb will let them to simply lock in as much guarnteed profit as possible regardless of where the horse finishes.
4. Simply back for value and not lay anything off- as my simplistic breakdown of results have been collated thus far.

Some will pick and choose these different options- and a few other ways- when and how they choose. I myself have most of the times when I have picked up an arb chose to lay off the win and leave the place un laid. There is no doubt in my mind that that option would have produced higher ROI on my naps so far- I believe option 1 and also option 3 would have been significant improvements also on returns- but thats my opinion (and dont have the data to show this) . I’m happy with the profit results so far based on the no laying stratergy (which few people actually apply day in/day out) It was a far easier way to show performances than the near impossible ways of recording data/results using all the different laying options like Early win lay/late place lays etc etc. So thus far have simply used these recording criterias to show the obvious value the naps have thus far produced and then leaving it up to the ‘Matched Better/arber) to apply these naps in the most suitable/profitable ways they choose.

Having always been a lay the win lay the place/let the place run kind of arber myself (perhaps enjoyed the thrill of the free shot of big profits too much!) Ive now- with the hindsight of anaylising my naps results so far on here and also researching a lot of bad eway historical data during this LOCKOUT- come to the conclusion that allways at least laying off your full stakes on every each way arb is a much better stratergy and now believe that OVERLAYING for guarnteed profit is the most productive option of them all (its so rare that i have ever overlaid anything- but evolution takes time!) So moving forward im going to be more like regs like SLEEPLESS who most times uses the overlay guarntee stratergy.

So moving forward in this new post LOCKOUT season- Im going to continue posting arbs/naps when ever I spot them- with some write ups when time permits. I’m now going to be recording the final Betfair SPs on both win and place and to record performance of naps based on laying off for full stakes amount just before off both win and place- and for 2nd breakdown option factoring in profit/losses with a full on Overlaying of arbs stratergy. So performance of naps going forward will no longer be based on the simplistic back for value at naps price.
Will also be posting early price ‘Naps’ in what I believe are value each way races regardless of wether or not they have entered arb range/there is enough liquity in exchanges. These early bird naps will be stated as such and will also go in to my overall performonce records. Of course followers will pick and choose when they want to get on any nap- but I will record all results for my own breakdowns of performances.

3 days to go! will prob be difficult to find an abundance of naps in the first week or two due to low amount of races/meets but am exited to get back into action and will be endeavoring to find as many value shots as possible as things gradually return to ‘normal’.

Stay tuned,

Scabs naps cont..

(2) 100 NEWCASTLE- AL OZZIL 7-1 (BETFRED) ** EXTRA PLACE RACE 4 PLACES

Got on earlier at the better price of 8s. But price went before i could post. The 7s with fred is overall decent ew value atm. Hard to read form right now due to long lockout.. but this horse has good consistencey over this distance 1m- and regular at course and thus could continue to arb even better and go off shorter.

Scabbas Naps…Cont

Day 2 post lockdown

(4) 135 KEMPTON. WIMPOLE HALL 12-1 * (LADS/CORAL) 4 places EPR

Good start on the naps front yesterday- will tally those up soon.

Slim pickings day today. Wimpole Hall kicks off todays naps. Small ew arb on the 4 place market- with the win laying tight atm. Form not great- has had a win over distance in last 6 starts.

Scabs Naps cont..

(6) 320 Kempton. Meras 8/1 (365) **

Small value bad ew race. Meraas at 8/1 has some arb value atm. Only 1 race on the form book a 2/11 over same trip

tip should read Swift not Swiss!! need to go to spec savers!

Scabbs naps..cont..

(9) Kempton 430- JAZZ PARTY 25-1 ** (365/LADS/VICTOR)

Same small bad ew race as previous 2 tips. Really having to scrap hard to find value in the low value ew races on offer in these 1st two days. Tip has steadilly come in on the exchange and has just entered small EW value range. One run on the form book to go-a steady 4/12 1m1 back in November. Todays trip 1m4. Rang pretty well on debut and suggested this longer trip shouldnt be a problem.