ACCA (again sorry!)

The offer isn’t worth a lot. I would say it’s worth about £2 per acca so no point in getting yourself into too much work.

Ideal picks for the real money acca is 4 short legs and one longer to make up the 4/1 total odds. To maximise the chance of one leg losing which is where the value is.

Ideal picks for the free bet if you win one is slightly higher odds, I like about just under evens as close as possible to true odds. To maximise the return when you get a winner since stake not returned.

The point is it’s a different kind of acca you are looking for in either case.

Hi arb. Not really. For free bet for max extraction best is longer odds. It’s the same as a regular free bet. Calculate the back odds and the lay odds and put in the main matched betting calc to give an idea of which combinations give best extraction/value.

Because it’s a little trickier than a regular free bet I usually settle for 75%.

I usually start with a few matches just about under evens and some with really really tight matches between back and lay. Total odds about 10/1.

Yes. Exactly. Long run you get 75%.

@ FoG_BLoG, massive thanks to you mate for opening my eyes to the no lay ACCA strategy. I used to do accas in the past in a way which would allow me to lay off the last leg only using the risk free calculator, but the hassle and inflexibility of this method caused me to abandon it some time ago.

The no lay strategy suit me much better, I am having an excellent run at the moment and am way ahead of the 20% RIO I expect to be making in the long run, so I am sure I will get a long run of losses before long.

So far it has not lead to any new gubbings but I’m sure they will happen eventually.

In terms of the amount of time and effort involved compared to the reward it has been the best thing I have found on this or any other forum, so once again thanks for sharing.

No problem Dave. I hope it continues to go well. You’re saving commission and if your like me you are probably hunting for >80% extraction which means you will be up on the theoretical profit. But yeah. You will find a period where you lose 100’s with no return.

unowhat … I’m not sure how that will work out. I’ve only started doing them a few months ago. I think the best time for acca’s is Nov/Dec. There were alot of cup games and early phase european fixtures which threw up many mismatches and plenty of midweek football.

Summer will be tough but there are some summer football leagues. And some leagues start back quite early if I remember. Then there will be a few international weeks although no big international tournaments this summer. But probably not enough to make any serious money on.

@ Foggy,
I know you don’t lay any of your legs when doing these accas but what are your thoughts on the following situation.

I have had several accas this week where the first four legs all won over the weekend and the remaining legs were completing Monday to Friday of this current week.

I did some E.V. calcs on these and provided my math is correct, by using Matts risk free calculator and laying the 5th leg on Smarkets, I am giving up around 1 to 2% in EV, but reducing variance and the consequence stress that goes with that.

Do you ever lay the 5th leg if the previous four have all won, and there is plenty of time available to lay the final leg?

I have part laid a couple when I’ve realised several accas rely on the last team, but only minimal amounts.
You already have the freebets as insurance, and by not laying accas are looking to ride out variance. As fog said you’ll be kicking yourself if they all win, especially if leg 1 of your new accas let’s you down tomorrow which isn’t laid!