ACCA (again sorry!)
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Hi Guys,
First post in a while!Thought it was time I started on the Acca’s. I feel the best method for me personally is the Lay all at the start method, I presume the no lay method is probably more beneficial, however guess i’m just a wimp!
Result Bookmaker Exchange Your Profit
All win (24%) £68 -£40 £28
1 lose (40%) -£5 -£7.50 -£12.50
2 lose (26%) -£25 £25 £0
3 lose (9%) -£25 £57.50 £32.50
4 lose (1%) -£25 £90 £65
All lose (0.1%) -£25 £122.50 £97.50I found the above online, this is based off a £25 stake and back and lay odds of 1.3/1.32. I assume this is correct?
Any tips would be appreciated!
Thanks+0February 16, 2017 at 12:58 pm
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I hope u did lay of u had the Mancs, or do a fog and never include them. They’ve just wiped out my accas across the board, best get knocked out in extra time now so can at least laugh at them
+0Yes I did a risk free lay on Man Utd. I’ve been very lucky this week laying the final leg has paid off really well, it also means I can watch these games and not get stressed over the outcome. I think from now on if the first four legs are winners I am always going to lay off the 5th if there is time available. It doesn’t make much of a difference to the bottom line, and smooths out the variance.
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Well aren’t Man Utd totally rubbish!
+0Man Utd and Man City, spoiled what would be a virtually perfect weekend for me regarding doing these accas. Can’t really complain though, the coming week has me in the fortunate position of have several access with four legs won and I can then use Matts risk free calc to smooth out the variance.
My main worry is that I am running well ahead of my expected 20% ROI, and might get gubbed by the bookies before it evens itself out.
I want to pick your brains Foggy (and anyone else) about something I have noticed since I started doing these accas seriously a short while ago. I will put it in another post once I have thought through what I want to ask.
+0As I think I have mentioned in the past I am always on the lookout for profitable strategies using the exchange once all my bookie accounts have been gubbed. Thanks to Foggy I have recently been doing these no lay accas (or laying the final leg using Matts risk free calculator if the opportunity occurs).
Now I have noticed when looking at the back and lay odds on BF that in probably 80% or more examples of hot favourites (typically below 1.5) that either both sides (back and lay) come in, the lay stays the same and the back goes out a little, or the odds stay the same.
Although it does happen, it’s fairly rare that the lay odds drift. So how likely is the following strategy to be profitable? Has anyone tried it, and where is the catch because it seems a little too easy and I suspect I’m missing something.
Two or three days before the game is to be played, and if a reasonable amount of money has been traded (not sure yet what I mean by reasonable) but I think we need at least a few thousand rather than a couple of hundred. We put in our back trade (but we try and get the lay price) ie. we ask for a price, we don’t take it. I don’t know how likely we are to get filled at this price, again if someone has tried this please let me know.
If we get filled then we keep an eye on the price movement (I don’t mean watching it every 5 mins), and if things go against us, try to get out with a small loss.
If the price starts to come in then again keep an eye on things but when the price looks to have stalled either take the current lay price, or if there is sufficient time available before the game starts, once again ask for a price to gain a little extra profit.
If one can get filled on both sides for the trade by asking for a price rather than taking it then even if the price does not move (often seems to happen with the biggest games), then one can still profit.
With this method I’m not looking for huge price moves, in fact as long as one can get filled on both sides of the trade, then no price move will be profitable (known as trading the spread in financial trading).
The thing is, there are lots of opportunities to do this on many games every week, and also if you want to use large stakes (not recommended if your new to this) then that’s possible on the bigger games.
Although I haven’t looked in detail, it might be an idea to use odds checker on each game your looking to trade, just to see what the consensus of opinion of the bookies is with respect to the pricing of each match.
So Foggy or anyone else with a bit of experience of doing accas what are your thoughts?
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I’m not sure Dave. I don’t have a lot of confidence in my ability to trade. It’s very easy to see patterns in random noise, it’s how the human brain is made. It’s called patternicity.
I have noticed odds drifting the other way too sometimes.
Just needs you to collect a lot of data and check it out honestly.
Some games odds can move either way quite drastically. E.g. A cup game, a few days out nobody knows if the manager will send the reserves out. Closer to the match ppl might have felt out the intentions in some press conferences. Then day of game odds can still jump in or out if the manager has gone for a strong team or weak team. Same with a routine league game a few days before a big European game. When the team news comes out and it’s revealed half the team are being rested the odds will drift.
I can actually think of more reasons that odds would increase rather than come in. But if you’ve seen otherwise it’s worth checking out.
I’ve believed for a while (based on the odds and results from football-data.co.uk) that there is value in betting on short favs, like really short favs, talking about 1/8 and shorter. So maybe look in that area. Maybe the traditional wisdom for getting odds for the overwhelming favs over estimates and takes a while for the markets to correct themselves.
+0It is all very interesting Dave Jones. I think in the majority of cases you would get a winning trade but there are times where things could go wrong very quickly. One example was Chelsea earlier in the season when Costa was suddenly linked to the Chinese league and he was left out of an away game. Chelsea’s price drifted from around 1.5 to 1.7 and beyond I believe.
One thing I have noticed is that the odds on fav teams can shorten in the last 5-10 mins before kick off by a couple of ticks. My theory is that bookies sort out their liabilities to the stage where it is manageable to them. For example tonights game Watford v Liverpool. Bookies current odds would be 5/1, 17/4, 4/7 for WDW.
The backs are currently. 6.4, 4.4 and 1.61. It is possible that throughout the day punters will bet around the shops and online on these 3 outcomes and they may end up with a big liability on Liverpool due to weight of money taken. What the bookie can do is use an exchange before kick off and sort out their liability so they have profited whatever the outcome is.
It all sounds marginal but when you think about the volume they take and if they all have similar liabilities and want to trade out 10-15 mins to kick off then it could put the price in slightly.
Thats my theory anyway I would if I were to trade football is watch the markets from a day or 2 out and trade accordingly based on team news an hour before kick off!
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Thanks for the replies guys, its a good point Foggy makes regarding patternicity I’m pretty good at spotting patterns in random data when in reality no pattern actually exists.
I wonder one method might be to exit ones trade (if profitable) say a day or so before the match takes place, in order to avoid the volatility created by team news, or as Beesty mentioned, bookies evening up their book.
I think I shall just keep an eye on the price movements of the selections I consider for my accas for the remaining weeks of the season, to see how things fair.
I wonder if this might be one of those strategies where you can have a large number of small wins all in a row. Then a massive loss can come along out of the blue and wipe out all your profits and more in one trade.
+0This has come up before and I’ve said no, basically as if the odds were pretty much guaranteed to shorten then someone would already be taking advantage of this. People have gone off to prove me wrong, and either failed or are hoovering up any money to be made already. Lol
What I do find interesting is your sensible expectations and talk of queueing bets. May be scope there. For example when I’ve done sequential accas I’ve seen lay money flying out the door when it’s an obvious time for accas to be laid…. eg ppl laying Barce for a wed night at 10pm on the tues night.
Or spurs yday, I laid some cash a point lower than I needed to really as after Chelsea ppl were laying them galore- but a market maker stepped in with a huge wad of cash to restore the price….so I guess you could get yourself in a queue to beat the market makers at certain times+0Does anyone lay their selections in-play. I’ve noticed the likes of Madrid, Barca, Bayern and Celtic are usually around the 1.10 to 1.12 mark before KO and usually score first so their odds drop to 1.01 or 1.02. I know the risks it might go the other way and they go a goal down. But surely against poorer opposition their odds wouldn’t drift that quickly. Also i know it’a time consuming because you have to keep an eye on the game.
But you could go from a profit of £10.50 for a £50 acca to roughly £35 for £50 acca.
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If you’re gona wait till they score..you may as well just not lay at all imo.
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Sportingbet restricted to £3 today on a 3/1 acca Amiens/CSKA/Cork/Everton/Chelsea.
Good while it lasted. About 7 months.
Activity looked like 4 accas every sat and sun and maybe another day in the week. 25 every acca. Extraction generally on horses under 10/1. Stuck mainly to the top leagues and top teams. But also did use teams like cska, ludogorets, dinamo Kiev, shakhtar Donetsk , zvezda, tns just for an easy pick. Maybe that wasn’t too muggy.
I did very few in-play accas because then that makes it look way too obv when you have 4 teams 2-0 up at HT mixed in with a tight longer leg. So stayed away from that in case it would raise alarms.
Did also have a recent withdrawal (may 1st) but I have deposited since and received free bets since. It was a small withdrawal too 160ish. I regularly withdrew.
No recent wins big or small! Actually was going through my worst losing streak in a while!
Anyway, just sharing so we can understand what causes restrictions.
Usual thing form LC…. traders decision … can’t provide any more information….. accounts get reviewed monthly …. yadda ya
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And there goes BetVictor today too. That’s Boyle gubbed and restricted to zero stake, Betfair restricted to zero, betvictor will no longer accepts sports bets and sportingbet restricted to small stakes. All in about a week.
Don’t know if they share info or if any of the bookies are linked. Just a coincidence I’ve been happily going along for months with no gubbings and then 4!
+0It wouldn’t surprise me.
I’ve lost a lot of accounts ion the space of the last fortnight
B365
Paddy
BFSB
Boyles
888
BetVicI am now heavily restricted on
Sky
BetfredAnd can no longer place EW bets on Betbright.
All within the space of a fortnight. Mind apart from 3565 (which was main account for 10 years) I haven’t mugged at all. A lot of EW Arbing.
+0Sorry to hear about the loss of Sportingbet Foggy, they are a really good bookie for the no lay acca strategy. I hope I get at least 7 months out of them but I doubt it, I just cant stop winning with them. Even the Free Bets I use on the horses win with them. If I had done what you currently do (ie not lay off the free bets) then I would have made a fortune the last few weeks.
Those teams you listed for today were all (or almost all) in the list of the most popular bets so I doubt it was the fact you selected those teams. I would not be surprised if bookies are sharing information on individuals, or perhaps using a third party that is doing it for them, so that they can deny doing it.
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