Bad EW Races NO CHAT

Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?

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ncfcmikey
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April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm

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deathstar 39 November 29, 2017 at 3:04 pm

you are correct in saying that if the number of runners decrease below the threshold of 8 or 16 the place markets lose a spot.

But Chris is referring to the reasons behind why the above are NOT bad E/W races, as you asked. You have to remember that they don’t happen every day unfortuntely. the 3.35 is about the closest, but it isn’t really as there are too many horses in with a chance as it were. you really need a massive favourite, at say 1.8, one or two around the 25/1 mark and the rest 200/1+ no hopers.

In other news, 3.35 down to 8 now. birch vale was coming in nicely before that.

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MbPunter 24 November 29, 2017 at 3:22 pm

Hmm drifted that. On Birch Vale too.

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Chris 24 November 29, 2017 at 3:25 pm

You guys are chasing it a little. Take a day off.

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deathstar 39 November 29, 2017 at 3:34 pm

i call it “keeping my eye in” Chris!

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MbPunter 24 November 29, 2017 at 3:35 pm

Probably right! End up in terrible shape on Dancing Amy, just about balanced out with Birch Vale being decent. Overall waste of time!

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bbobb 24 November 29, 2017 at 3:49 pm

I had Birch Vale at 13.0/13.0 and layed the place at 2.3

Anyone that thinks that wasn’t a decent bad EW race needs their head examined…. top 2 were taking around 85% of the book, a couple of no hopers and 2 of the 3 that you would normally target ended up placing.

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MbPunter 24 November 29, 2017 at 3:51 pm

Worked out well in the end.

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MbPunter 24 November 29, 2017 at 3:58 pm

Fenisas Hook 4.10 kempton 40s lads coral btype if quick.

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deathstar 39 November 29, 2017 at 3:59 pm

same bbobb, its a BOOM from me. took birch at 15/14.5 and got the lay place at 2.18. it did go down to 2.08 then drifted out towards 2.6

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betman 41 November 29, 2017 at 3:59 pm

3.35 was decent 15 mins off at least
Birch vale available at 13/15 then. Not that i got much on it but still made 100% on the place part

2 of them were so far out on the odds I thought they were about to be declared non runners (no lay and available to back at 1000) so pretty much 3 places on a 6 horse race

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Mr Crispy 34 November 29, 2017 at 6:01 pm

The 7.10 at Kempton should be reasonable on Bet365 once it goes to 4 places.
Power Home at 10.0 on the 4 place tab is value atm..

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beaser 8 November 29, 2017 at 9:34 pm

1220 and 1250 at Taunton look possible tomorrow chaps. Especially if there’s a non runner or two. Typically, I’m too busy at work ?

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supert 8 November 29, 2017 at 11:12 pm

Am i missing something or do you guys forget about the 16+ hcap races???

The 2.55pm at punch was an ideal race to hit 6 or 7 horses in….

Had £40 ew on winner at 18/1 that only made me £20 ffs but took away commission win had to be laid in play 19/19 on win but was a 1pt arb on place… some reason i had laid £45 on place ffs lol… but black scorpion was 26/26 …. only had £30 ew but had a 7.2/4.2 arb on place … laid just £30 so £90 profit on that and no commission!

Crazy how you discount the most profitable races!!

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beaser 8 November 29, 2017 at 11:27 pm

I don’t think I have the time to study the market like you SuperT. There doesn’t seem to be the liquidity whenever I look, but I generally try and get bets on a couple of hours before the race. I’m guessing you do it all in the last 30 mins when the money starts to form the market better…..?

But yeah, you’re right, I focus on the strong favourite races and often overlook the 16+ handicap.

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Matt
Keymaster
1607 November 30, 2017 at 12:28 am

I’ll look into that @deathstar…

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