Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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There seems to be some logic in backing when you know it’s a non runner to get the deduction increased but I can’t figure it out. Either that or it’s the bookies trying to increase the R4.
Do all bets get voided on the exchange for non-runners?
I had the chance their to cashout for £30 profit… would I have lost that?
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No Rule 4 deduction if 14/1 or above so you would have been ok I think.
Exchange applies reductions on the place markets but if you layed early that works in your favour.
+0Doesn’t affect me but didn’t you say that Bet365 had it down to 12-1 before the withdrawal. Is that the bookies then forcing the price down when they get wind of a non-runner to increase the R4?
+0Cheers for the thoughts guys.
I firmly agree on the laying of matched betting eating into profit, and the insurance analogy is one I’ve used before. Commission and the back/lay spreads are straight up costs, but close matches are often on shortening prices so overall I expect we lay at less optimal prices
For trading I like what mbpunter said about being on the side of original bet. Maybe just because it tied in with my thoughts, but the logic seems sound
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Yep thats what I saw and initially thought. No way would they get away with it and if you look at oddschecker now, the last price they offered was 17.0, still criminally low compared to other bookies who were at least 29.0 on him (with a few offering 34.0 and 41.0)
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Lulu place lay finally getting smashed in
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We’re buggered if a horse withdraws going in to the stalls
+0Strange odds really as there isnt much between 2nd and 3rd in the betting on form.
Lulu drifting so going to cost me….
On the bright side if I have a risk free £400 if True Calling wins.
+0Aye Chris, please no more non runners…
In terms of holding off laying, it is very risky especially when the market has it as a 2 horse race, as shown now, lulu is up to 40’s on the exchange…you need to have a real good grasp of the betting markets to know if something is going to get backed in.
@Betman, you had any success trading on these races, do you have any examples of what you’ve been doing- there is definitely potential would love to hear your thoughts…+0
I know, I think Commander Han is seriously underpriced.
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Underlayed Lulu 9.25/5.6 for a shot at £106 profit
+0Could have been worse…. lost about £10 but was punting some of that.
Fav was a donkey but just not bad enough.
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Tuuuuuuuuurd
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Not sure High 5 is worth the bother today either
+0Barely started.
I’ve traded places on bad each way races a little previously, but the market is often skewed now by people over backing the horses likely to shorten, plus it takes quite a bit of time.I was trying to see if the hills restrictions eased with show prices the other day, and tried to back a horse boosted from 4 just as 4.1 was disappearing off the exchange as I felt it would go below 4. Hills just froze but it quite quickly hit 3.8 where i would have got out so a risk free shot at 0.3 of my stake for not much time.
I’m just going to toy with small stakes, and if it works build up a bit with the aim to have another approach for making a little cash. I suspect my risk approach/discipline won’t work with it though as the market isn’t always so predictable and horses can play up in the parade ring/walk out+0
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