Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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Lets keep this thread going, guys!
1405 Carrick, Lil Gem at 17.0 Paddy, Lay 17.5 Betfair and Lay Place 3.55.
+01410 Newbury, Metatrons Cube. Bet 365 at 7 / Betfair 7.2
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Slightly speculative…
20.15 Newmarket
Pretty Asset is 2.75 on B365 and Sky (so 1.35 for the place if you go e/w)..
Limited liquidity but the win is laying at 2.64 and the place at 1.23..
Only 8 runners!
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6.15 Lingfield
Thistimenextyear 13.0 at Sky/Fred and Tote
+0188Bet offering 1/4 odds on 18:15 too, probably too late to help though
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Boom winner.
Got on at 15/13 before I was able to post it and underlayed the place 3.8/2.4 so a tidy £75 profit there
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How aggressive are people with 8 runner races? Would you just not touch them until e.g hour before the race or even not at all? and is there anything you can do if it goes to 7 runners?
14:50 newton threw a NR seconds before the race, i got lucky to escape the ‘minus’ 3rd place and realised i had no strategy to mitigate losses
thanks
+0The 2:50 was hazardous but got out really well. Someone panicked on the 2tbp market and had the fav at 1.02. So took bat for 500 whilst sorting out my ew arb on the horse that eventually won.
Your options are:
1) let it ride. If your horse comes 3rd or 4th you lose depending on the runners. There is more danger in the 8 runner Ones but your bet does go to a 1/4 from a 1/5 which helps.
2) back out of the to be placed market and re lay at one place lower. You will make a loss doing this but protect the situation as well as you can. Depending on the withdrawal and their odds can mean rule 4 can work in our favour.
I know today’s race was a jumps race but another thing to consider is do they have to go in the stalls or not. I would say it’s 3x more likely you get a late withdrawal on a stalls race than a jumps one. Also to back out I find there is more time in the jumps as when it happens with stalls they go instantly as it’s a horse that has had a lot of chances.
Personally I ignore certain races now because of this risk but something like the 2:50 or the 5:05 at Tipperary you just have to take the risk and know that one day you will get stung but your profits will be worth it in the long run.
+0Beesty, could you explain what you mean “back out of the to be placed market and re lay at one place lower” ?
What is the typical return for e/w races? I have only done a few, usually the returns are 3 – 6%, of the total stake for me, is that typical?
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Yeah its very odd to have a late non runner in a jumps race, must have been an injury to the horse.
My race was 8 runners on the flat so it was high risk, been stung before after both lays have been made and the horse finished third. I was just too tempted yesterday and lucky for me it paid off. Only wished I underlayed the win part too.
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20:10 Ballinrobe. Lots of time for non-runners though.
+020:10 looks ideal, big place arbs available already. Alamgiyr 15/17.5 B365 is not bad.
Two questions for you all:
1. Is there anything unique to 16+ races to look for compared to 8 – 15? in particular, if a NR reduced it to 15, would the bookies change odds to 1/5 top 3 or to 1/4 top 3? if they reduce to 1/5 then surely the risk of a NR for these races is disproportionately high
2. What odds for the 2nd / 3rd favs are acceptable for a race to be ‘bad EW’? if they fell below 4/1 is that a red flag for example? or in terms of the place odds being unrepresentative, do you want every horse other than the fav to be as high as possible?
Thanks in advance
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1. Not really, just how the odds are proportioned (ie you can have 2 at the 2.5 mark and the rest over 15). 15 runners reduces to 1/4 3 places in handicap races.
2. All lands on the odds of the lowest place, so 2 clear favs is also great for 3 places. I feel 1 clear fav and the bookies are stingy with the odds sometimes.
Also this Ballinrobe 20:10, now 16 runners so one more is a problem.
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Ballinrobe 20:10
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a 1/4 odds 4 places race with such a short favourite before..
There are some good edge bets available on the outsiders! I have punted my max stake on a few… come on Celtic Monarch!
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The Edge enhancement seems to depend on which way the wind is blowing.
In this race on any horse other than the favourite and second favourite, the enhancement is ridiculous.
The Lastonetogo is 15.0 at Betfair SB, which enhances to 34 when you change the places to 2, which is an effective 21.6 on the win. Admittedly, you can’t lay it at that on the exchange atm.
If there’s another non-runner then that would be even better (34 on the win less Rule 4 deduction)..
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