Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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Thats some brillant break down FOG. Great to have those figures to look at in future. Cheers
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I think your proberly right there Sleepless. Its become convienent to see a certain users name flash up on the forum page and know thats likely to have MB2/PP info and just reply on this thread.. Maybe not call it ‘Paddy Power/sharbing’! Just something simple like ‘MB2s’ Thread. Due to the lack of bad e/ws laely it certainly has saturated this thread!
I will post up a thread now.- Setara/Tennis anyone else. Post up on there with the mb2/sharbing/shop bonus stuff from now
Cheers
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Its up there now under the creatively titled..’MB2’s/Shop Bonuses Thread’
Hopefully there will be some bad ews tomorrow to talk about on here!
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Think everyone will be happy, Scab. Just wish there were more PP’s in England.
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Yep I think so mate.
+0Don’t suppose you had number runners or other horses odds with it Fog?
Also not sure i follow the 10-1 or longer had 10% chance bit, I’m clearly reading it wrong as every horse sat didn’t have a 10% chance coming 2nd!
Other than the outlier of serial 2nds who can’t get other the line I don’t see a reason the probability of 2nd wouldn’t be a derivative of the win prices.
although as already noted that’s far too complex. I just wanted to avoid the misconceptions you see that a shortish priced favourite (2-1 or less!) will almost definitely win and the probability of 2nd is 1/(no runners-1).
I remember people avoiding even money favourites and picking from a cluster of 5 or 6 to 1 shots on the good old mb2nd at dundalk+0Get regular offer updates, tip and tricks, big offer alerts and more straight to your inbox.
Yes, 10-1 and shorter i meant/said, in my data i saw 10% at least came second. Their chance of coming second was just a little better than their chance of coming first, which kind of makes sense for a long shot.
And yes, its a misconception that the second favourite is more likely to come second, usually its the fav that is most likely to be second.
It is quite hard to predict second, harder than first. It is much more levelled out. See below anything out from evens to about 3/1 had a 20% hit rate on second.
Anyway I have rechecked by data. And this is going by just SP:
fraction odds – decimal odds – total horse in sample – per cent of horse that finished 2nd
evens 2.00 5018 23.65
5/4 2.25 6948 23.62
11/8 2.38 6262 23.91
6/4 2.50 6256 24.49
13/8 2.63 6396 24.42
7/4 2.75 12528 23.89
15/8 2.88 7886 24.28
2/1 3.00 18712 23.46
9/4 3.25 20151 22.36
5/2 3.50 23657 21.11
11/4 3.75 24408 21.22
3/1 4.00 35141 19.94
10/3 4.33 14015 19.81
7/2 4.50 46727 18.95
4/1 5.00 52770 17.57
9/2 5.50 50644 16.41
5/1 6.00 57149 15.69
11/2 6.50 36501 14.57
6/1 7.00 60037 13.76
13/2 7.50 29084 13.75
7/1 8.00 73519 12.54
15/2 8.50 17544 11.46
8/1 9.00 98557 10.97
17/2 9.50 6318 10.46
9/1 10.00 49963 10.12
10/1 11.00 95427 8.96
11/1 12.00 29058 8.86
12/1 13.00 110875 7.53
14/1 15.00 111498 6.49
16/1 17.00 126194 5.75
18/1 19.00 8998 5.46
20/1 21.00 130857 4.28
22/1 23.00 11338 4.99
25/1 26.00 119833 3.48
28/1 29.00 14015 3.60
33/1 34.00 121707 2.44
40/1 41.00 35840 2.31
50/1 51.00 75449 1.47
66/1 67.00 52343 1.26
80/1 81.00 6809 1.26
100/1 101.00 47992 0.61
150/1 151.00 5186 0.52
200/1 201.00 5399 0.31+0
If I have a look now at banding it by runners. Its too messy to copy and paste in here. But here is the difference for 3/1 SP horses. So it drops from 26% hit rate to 18% hit rate going from smaller field to larger field.
fract – dec – runner band – horses in sample – percent who finished 2nd
3/1 4.00 <6 3039 26.13
3/1 4.00 6-10 15524 20.34
3/1 4.00 11+ 16578 18.43Anyway, no need to get so technical. The offer is definitely value. Just hit it and dont waste your time thinking too much about your implied odds. A good rule is just stay on horses 3/1 and under or if you go over 3/1 make sure there is a very small QL. You wont go far wrong.
+0thanks, and I said I must misread something!
my place model only goes up to 10 runners so can’t properly compare, although could churn a few patterns of odds to see if the jump in runners does correlate to price (out of curiosity)
You’re right on the general principles, and once you get it the exceptions are self explanatory e.g. worth taking the 5-1 horse as the favourite is 4/7
It’s the mb2nd to sp fav where the margins are tight, the favourite being 7/4 not 5/4 might seem trivial but makes a big difference to implied odds.+0Fogblog – to your point about it being harder to pick 2nd place than 1st – I guess they are all in it to win and if during the race it becomes apparant they cannot win then maybe a few runners will to an extent stop trying – then again I would imagine that would violate the racing rules because of the place market that exists!
+0The maths is probably quite complicated but when you break it down the shorter the price the more chance they have of finishing near the front than the back and the smaller the field the more chance you have of hitting 2nd.
If you start by thinking of a small field race with horses of equal ability then slowly increase the variables it is easier to get your head round it.
+0Anyway….a ton of racing today with loads of extra place offers and big handicaps so should be some decent value kicking about.
Picking a winner wont be easier so you can probably forget about High5 or 2Clear in all but a couple of races.
+0bbobb – I had wondered whether the maths was like/similar to a pack of cards i.e. you can predict the odds of picking anyone card and the odds change as cards are removed – there must be a similar way of doing it albeit I recognise it will never be an exact science unlike the deck of cards which would be over time.
I accept you dont really need it to make a profit – it’s more of a nice to have
Happy hunting today
+0Place market should give you enough info to offer a decent ‘guess’ at the % chance of 2nd.
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Tennis punter, I had a look at that strategy to estimate 2nd place 3rd place and it seemed wildly inaccurate for some reason.
Might have another look at it though. I think it was thrown off by the jumps and probability of falling. I could have a look at some flat races.
If I could get a mathematical model that I have confidence in then I would be able to trade the place markets which is surely flooded by ew sniper money who don’t really discern by value, they take a price just because it is an arb on the bookie ew place odds.
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