Bad EW Races NO CHAT

Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?

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tennispunter 2 April 18, 2018 at 10:20 am

It seems I was quite wrong about there being a relatively simple formula that you can apply to working out the true odds of a horse being placed. The following articles confirm this for anyone that maybe interested.

http://www.betfairprotrader.co.uk/2012/04/place-pricing-in-horse-racing.html

http://www.betfairprotrader.co.uk/2012/05/study-of-betfair-place-odds.html

As you say mbpunter the place odds are probably as good as anything – the article confirms this

Oh well one lives and learns – back to the drawing board

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bbobb 24 April 18, 2018 at 10:34 am

Does anyone know if it matters what order you place bets with Ladbrokes price boosts?

Should I be using my Daily Price boost before I use a specific one or will the system use the most relevant?

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tennispunter 2 April 18, 2018 at 10:35 am

Fog_blog – I think the following issues do impact the place market

——

“”The “Silky Sullivan” effect. Some horses either win or finish well off the pace. One such horse was Silky Sullivan that sat at the back of the race until the final furlong and would make a spirited attempt to win (or fail miserably).

Trainer orders. A jockey will be under orders from the trainer, which cannot be modeled mathematically. A jockey may be told to go all out for the best placing possible. Another jockey may be told to strike out for the win but canter in if the attempt fails. Yet another jockey may be told to treat the race as a training run. And so on.””

That said I agree with you re each way sniper money – that I am sure is worth pursuing – I recollect that one guy on one forum somewhere was taking that exact approach and backing when the crowd were laying and then laying once the price had moved back down…

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FoG_BLoG 61 April 18, 2018 at 10:38 am

New thread TP?

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tennispunter 2 April 18, 2018 at 12:19 pm

Good idea Fog – new thread started – see under “Value Bets on 2nd / 3rd/ 4th Places”

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bbobb 24 April 18, 2018 at 2:49 pm

Anyone see the finish there in the race at Cheltenham.

Fav came from nowhere to collar a couple close to the line, wasn’t in the picture jumping the last few.

1000.0 in running

Wasn’t on anything.

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Cliff 24 April 18, 2018 at 3:28 pm

Ignore that

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bbobb 24 April 18, 2018 at 3:42 pm

Nice extra place in the 15:35… backed at 18-1 and went off at 10s

I really needed that not to win.

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Sharbster 6 April 19, 2018 at 9:27 am

Newcastle 20.45 should have some potential

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MbPunter 24 April 19, 2018 at 10:29 am

Should be a good one that.

5.15 Fairyhouse should offer some value. Along with the 16+ handicaps of course.

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bbobb 24 April 19, 2018 at 1:21 pm

Every man and his dog seems to know Music Society is not winning the first at Newmarket today.

Been drifting all day and WH boosted it from 3.0 to 6.0 earlier.

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bbobb 24 April 19, 2018 at 1:57 pm

Never put in the race.

Someone was cleaning up laying that one.

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FoG_BLoG 61 April 19, 2018 at 2:01 pm

20.45 is perfect, enough runners you don’t have to worry too much about non runners. And the fav drifting a little so hopefully those place prices will come in nicely for our picks… now to find a bookie that will give me some money on it!

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bbobb 24 April 19, 2018 at 4:06 pm

Another fecking 33-1 winner on one of my fresh accounts.

Left a couple of quid unlaid though so cant complain.

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bbobb 24 April 19, 2018 at 6:23 pm

Sigh….2 5ths in a row going for extra place.

One caught on line and the other baulked when running on for 4th.

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