Bad EW Races NO CHAT

Out of interest, what was the exchange win/lay price on Luso Benny at the off?

I took the larger loss on the win earlier as the place arb was so decent but saw it went off at 10/1 SP.

Great shout on Smiling Jessica Chris, how did you know the price was going to come in so much?

A trend I have noticed with a few of these is the win price will come down and come close to matching the bookie and then will go right up near the off (combination of late money going onto the favourite and people looking to trade off their EW bets)- I’ve traded a few of them but only small stakes whilst building up more confidence ;)

Shame Jessica came in 4th, had Benny too but didnt stake a lot as the price I got was only available at a bookie where Im restricted quite heavily (got £15 ew). He did indeed drift at the exchange but because I got 17 early in the day, the loss on the win wasn’t that bad at all for me.

No horse specific knowledge needed guys, just look at the race. It was what I call a truly bad ew race. You had an odds on favourite, a short priced second favourite and a 14/1 third favourite until as late as 4.30pm. You then had a fourth favourite at 20/1 (25/1 up until about mid day) and the rest were real no hopers at 33/1 bar. As this was a national hunt race, the market can be trusted a lot more than those on flat races where we’ve recently seen 100/1 shots steaming in to win.

Its almost certain that punters whether they be matched betters like ourselves, online mug betters or betters on the course are going to look at this race as a great opportunity for an ew win. When the bookies are paying out on the top three and the fourth favourite is 20/1, its really quite obvious, or logical at least that the aforementioned groups of punters are going to all get on that 20/1 horse, it only needs one of the first three in the betting to have a bad race. We didnt really have to worry about the others.

So ok on this occasion Jessica didnt finish in the top three but the money came in for her as expected and the odds dropped like a lead balloon.

It would have been nice if My Name is Jeff had won. It was 67 on PP when laying for 50/8.2!

Turnpike and Fearsome was not a bad result for me though…cheers for the heads up on that one Betman and FOG.

I fully get where you’re coming from. I was against this idea when the post started, partly for your reason and partly as the poster wanted to be spoon fed

But as I’ve made cash from other posts I’ve joined in conversation and aimed to return favour a little. It’s worked out well a few times where I’ve not even looked at racecards but got on some thing, but maybe pms or some more private communication is better for the reasons you say…… never ceases to amaze me the random users who pipe up occasionally and read but don’t contribute. I did also request a private sub forum when Matt had his ideas post for people of a certain level of posting

I think a private message function is a good idea but not for the reasons outlined by beesty who I respectfully disagree with on two points in particular.

Firstly, the idea that bookies and/or traders patrol public forums to inform them of what customers to restrict or odds to cut is fantasist. I doubt they have the resources or will to do so and its not just matched betters that can spot an overpriced ew opportunity, bookies cant monitor every single online gambler all day everyday. These forums have been around for years, we’ve all speculated what leads to gubbings and/or restrictions but does posting offers, arbs or bad ew opportunities contribute to this? I dont think so.

Also, never in a million years are bookies going to go 1/6, 1/7 odds on each way. It just wont happen.

My activity on here especially in recent months has been very limited, but I find these races and share the opportunities because its in the spirit of the forum and I will continue to do so until I’ve exhausted all my accounts or exhausted myself.

But there’s plenty of people ‘lurking’. I looked at what had been matched for a couple if horses in the 5pm and it was very limited, some of these races there’s barely the money to go round all of us let alone a dozen other people piling in

And even if the bookies aren’t watching then the bets add up if we’re encouraging loads of random people to back the same horses, then whether they read this forum or not we’re part of a group to pile into the same ‘bad horse at a similar time.

So I think there’s a lot of substance behind what may sound paranoid, which is why I had reservations with this post first up…. but it’s helped me make money so I’ve tried to return favour and join in, as in the spirit of things rather than lurking!

I saw an interesting one the other week. A proper bad 8 horse race. I’d hung off being 8 horses, but about half hour before the off a couple bookies pushed a horse from something like 22 to 28.
I knew it would shorten again, they must have known too, but must have been pushing it out to balance their book a bit. They must known all bets would be each way, but still enticed the money to meet their needs….and on the other hand would moan at people for placing such bad each way bets.

It was trimmed quite quickly back from 28, had SP of about 12 whilst trading around 40 on the exchange.

It didn’t place so I probably helped the bookie then and had my card further marked for the privilege