Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
If a shorter priced horse has gone then your original lay will be subject to a bigger reduction. It’s usually pretty close from my experience anyway.
+0The very nature of these races means the likelihood of placing isn’t proportionate to the win price. You could see a 30% reduction factor applied, but a horse effectively competing for 3rd with 2 other horses to 2nd/3rd with 3 other horses so the place odds are much shorter
Although normally it would be a rank outsider withdrawing and would have minimal impact on the place market, so unless your horse steamed in after layed then the principle would be fine
Matchedem half the problem with your approach for this is desperation for guaranteed profit. It’s very difficult to lay at the optimal price, so the less you can feel comfortable laying the better long run
+0I know what you’re saying but Betfair reduces the place market based on the place odds not the win price.
So the reduction should still fall in line. Unless the horse you’ve laid has already shortened a fair bit prior to the withdrawal.+0Well shortening after u lay is another potential area, but the reduction is based on the 8 runners at the time. Dropping to 7 is a whole new market, but really does depend on the make up of the race.
Both times it’s happened to me I’ve been looking at guaranteeing a loss by backing out, although both times I think was the 2nd favourite withdrawing.
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Think betman sums it up nicely there.
If you’re desperate to guarantee yourself £3 then go do a Bet 10 Get 5 Free offer. Ew arbing involves some time investment and good judgement yes but it pays off well when the underlays come in. I’ve flicked through the last three pages of what I did today and last week and £300+ says you dont know what you’re talking about matchedem.
Now move along and let the big boys talk.
+0Recently started to try some e/w arbs, had a look at the races tomorrow. Does the 150 at lingfield look likely? Great advice cheers!!
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Id be wary of he 150 as only 8 runners. If u do wait til right near the off to avoid a risk of a big loss
Btw is your name an ode to myself?
Matchedem and Matchthis the match betting brothers+0
The 1.50 is a good one potentially.
I’ll be looking out for some nice ew arbs(/commission savers) on the two favourites.+0
Thanks for posting that one Matchie Jnr.. perfect result for me.
+0Haha in no way am I affiliated with matchdem money man!! Still new to all this, keep them coming I have had a look later… does the 625 and 655 look likely?
+0Haha in no way am I affiliated with matchdem money man!! Still new to all this, keep them coming I have had a look later… does the 625 and 655 at kempton look likely?
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Not that I’m an expert….
The 6.25 doesn’t interest me, too many horses and the favourite is not short odds.
The 6.55 is a good one (in my opinion)… Iconic knight is an ew arb already as is shamrock emma… I’ll be watching this one..
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Also in the 6.55, if you’re not fussed about keeping your sky account, Tipi is 51 in the three to place market, laying at 25..
+0Well the market got the top 3 right there
Sky cut those odds quick crispy
To satisfy matchedem I (and probably chris) lost a little commission on Landue there. But the underlay approach served me well on the minimal time I’ve spent matched betting today – made a lot more than that earlier this evening.
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Well done guys….725 probably decent too
u can be my pup match2 too
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