Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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I’ve been doing the extra place offers on Corals/Ladbrokes for the last few weeks with varying degrees of success (as usual when I fully lay the place it seems to place and when I gamble it doesn’t).
But I was wondering which horses I should be targetting for the extra place. My intitial hunch is that the horses around 4th in the betting are more likely to finish 4th in the race assuming the market has it correct, alternatively should I just be looking at the best matches (which has less chance of hitting the place you want).
Anyone else put any thought into this?
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bobb, success on the extra place offers will always vary because, lets be honest its down to pure luck.
I tend to go with horses 11/1 and above and stick to max stakes of £50 ew. Obviously you dont want to pick a donkey with 000000 as their form.
Apart from that I only go with the races where the ew terms are the same everywhere (1/4 or 1/5). Often find Sky, Paddy and Betfair will always find a 1/4 odds race and then offer an extra place but at 1/5 which makes back and lay matching on the places that much harder.
+0I’m not sure I agree…. picking a horse to finish 4th is no different to picking a winner. Yes, there is luck involved but no more or less than picking a winner.
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I think it is a bad assumption that the 4th ranked horse is more likely than any other to finish 4th.
It depends on the size of field and composition of the race. But I would say that generally the favourite is more likely to fill any of the top positions than any other horse. So I would think it usually could be the favourite that is more likely to hit the top places inlcuding the extra place.
Of course you have to balance that out with the payout and usually you can find you can get a better extra place payout for a longer priced horse.
It’s a bit of a funny one. 4th/5th is pretty random. I think in some races you could have equal chance of hitting it with any horse favourite or long shot sometimes. Generally the favourite or one of the top favourites.
I definitely agree with Chris 5 places at 1/5 odds is no more value than 4 places at 1/4 odds. Once they start playing with the fraction I generally turn a blind eye to those kind of extra place offers.
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in my experience its completely random. I remember one particular race a few years ago where all the horses at the front were so aggressively competing most of them fell at the last two fences and the 250/1 shot strolled in fifth
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Of course picking a horse to finish 4th is harder than picking a winner. The market (and the many write up previews) always give good indicators of horses that are likely to win, they dont do the same for 4th places. Ok so outsiders winning races happen every day but the pool of horses likely to finish 4th, 5th etc is bigger than those that could realistically win.
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Either I’m unlucky or this each way malarchy is getting more focus. Used 3 bookies for the bad each way Doncaster race last week, all 3 gubbed/restricted me since. In fact the amount of different emails 888 sent me today I get the feeling the office has been looking at my account shaking their head all afternoon (even though I rarely used it)
Anyway extra places- as fog said depends on field. They can be on biggish fields with something like a 6-1 favourite, in which case I’d say that horse is most likely to fill any of the top handful of places you pick- but doesn’t make it best value
My philosophy is look for close enough matches, do the sums quickly and roughly- if the implied odds make it worthwhile then have a go, if they aren’t then don’t.I tend to be a bit less stake aggressive on these than eway arbing. Arbing I know the value is on the place so accept a bit more of a loss On the win. Extra place is often squeezing the qls so I may leave my win part in a queue to be matched- in which case I don’t want loads sat there
+0If you have an even money fav in a 12 horse race with a fair book then it should finish 1st 50% of the time. It’s not finishing 4th 50% of the time.
By induction you can show that all horses don’t have an equal chance of finishing 4th.
Some have to be more likely than others.
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I’ve been using restricted accounts mainly for extra places and each way bets. Hit a few last week at Doncaster, I go horses under 10.0, the only time I did a horse over 10.0 at 13.0, the damn thing won (laugh a minute).
It’s just down to luck, a few races I’ve had 3rd and 5th place with 2 horses, missed the extra place.
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If anyone needs any profeshional advice on either these each way races or anything else MB then do let me know. Considering a consultancy idea as I dont think its been done before.
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Ok short test then with picking 1st and 4th. I’m going to pick two horses for those two places in the first four races at Redcar today as thats the most open card. Probably wont hit a single thing but would be interesting:
1.20 – 1st: Biddy Brady
4th: Bonanza Bowls1.50 – 1st: Placebo Effect
4th: Emerald Rocket2.20 – 1st: Summerghand
4th: Penny Pot Lane2.50 – 1st: Short Work
4th: Danish DukeThose are genuine choices by the way, I’ve gone with all those win picks for 2 Clear.
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That’s a good game @Chris I’ll join in, but I’m going to do e/w bets for 1st and 4th.
1.20 Dandy’s Beano and Artic Treasure
1.50 Dark Liberty and Placebo Effect
2.20 Geoff Potts and Duke Cosimo
2.50 Short Walk and Manatee BayI’m interested to see how many of the 8 horses place, total stake £8, 8 x 0.50 each way.
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From an odds point of view you can calculate the chances of finishing 4th based on the exchange odds. So probability of placing exactly 4th equals probability place top 4 – probability place top 3.
1/(lay 4tbp) – 1/(lay 3tbp)
There is not a lot of liquidity yet on the 1540 at yarmouth. But if you do a quick check on the odds of 4th I am getting 11.75% for fav.
For the entire field the percentages are 11.75%, 12.39%, 9.78%, 12.31%, 12%, 10%, 9%, 6%, 11%, 6%.
So it is much more evened out that the probability of a winner, and its not a given that 4th favourite will be most likely to be 4th.
+0I was in the process of doing a similar exercise to FOG
The numbers I came up with (from the 14.20 at Redcar today) are…
Horse Odds : 4.75,6.60,8.90,10.75,11.25,12.50,15.75,16.25,21.00,24.00,30.00
Chance of 4th : 9,9,11,11,10,8,10,9,7,8,6No real surprises but first impressions are that the best horses to target would be with higher odds.
I am going to do the same with a couple of other races today to see how a couple of big prices or a short price fav will affect it.
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Just a note with that Yarmouth extra place race, if you’re thinking of doing it then be wary that one more non runner will no longer mean an extra place is paid out on.
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