Bad EW Races NO CHAT

Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?

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ncfcmikey
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10 September 19, 2017 at 11:20 am

1.20 – 1st: Kyllachy Dragon
4th: Biddy Brady

1.50 – 1st: Placebo Effect
4th: Dark Liberty

2.20 – 1st: Geoff Potts
4th: Cosmic Chatter

2.50 – 1st: Short Work
4th: Manatee Bay

BOOM

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FoG_BLoG 60 September 19, 2017 at 11:26 am

Might as well join in the prediction game.

1.20 – 1st: Kyllachy Dragon
4th: Dandy’s Beano

1.50 – 1st: Placebo Effect
4th: Byrons Choice

2.20 – 1st: Geoff Potts
4th: Summerghand

2.50 – 1st: Short Work
4th: Madrinho.

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betman 41 September 19, 2017 at 12:11 pm

I’m a bit lost what we’re doing here?
Yes the probability of coming 4th (or 5th) is needed for the implied odds, but the biggest factor is the ql.

You can get a pretty good feel from the market shape if the ql is worth taking, but you can’t force the ql to be any better just because you found the most likely horse to hit the extra place – and you’re letting opportunity pass by if you just focus on that horse

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FoG_BLoG 60 September 19, 2017 at 12:18 pm

Agreed betman.

I think it’s a good idea to have an idea of the likelihood. But if we have shown, and I think that we have, that there is not much difference in the probabilities then that frees us up to concentrate on getting the lowest QL and the highest payouts/effective odds.

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Chris 24 September 19, 2017 at 1:29 pm

Ok so the fourth placed horse in the first race there was 100/1 and my pick was second.

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Chris 24 September 19, 2017 at 1:40 pm

Got a lovely boosted arb at William Hill on Short Work in the 2.55 by the way. Boosted to 3.96 (from 3.75 earlier) just underlayed at 3.30 so £122 if he wins.

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Chris 24 September 19, 2017 at 2:00 pm

2 out of 2 for BKK, nice one mate.

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BKK Farang 3 September 19, 2017 at 2:39 pm

4 out 6 places so far, no 4th places.

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BKK Farang 3 September 19, 2017 at 3:04 pm

5 out of 8 places, 3 1st places, but if these were extra place races, then nothing. I think I’ll do the rest of the card, 50p each way lol

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FoG_BLoG 60 September 19, 2017 at 3:21 pm

I picked 1 winner and no 4th places. Safe to say ppl picked more winners?

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Chris 24 September 19, 2017 at 3:26 pm

Boooom on Short Work, nice £122 profit plus a £50 free bet for winning by 3 lengths.

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BKK Farang 3 September 19, 2017 at 3:28 pm

How much did you put on short work @Chris ?

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FoG_BLoG 60 September 19, 2017 at 3:29 pm

Actually in that little test ironically Chris you picked 2 fourth places and only 1 winner. You actually got a perfect pick 1st/4th on the last race! What’s the odds!?

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bbobb 24 September 19, 2017 at 3:30 pm

Another 2Clear bonus in the 3.25… underlaid. :-)

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bbobb 24 September 19, 2017 at 3:31 pm

Chris, do you take the Boost then wait till near the off to lay?

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