Bad EW Races NO CHAT
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Right an idea I got from oddsmonkey, we post the daily bad EW races on here with no chat or discussion, plenty of topics for that. Think this thread will help us all in case you don’t think it will just skip this please ?
+0April 2, 2017 at 5:21 pm
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Why did i get greedy and post that 3rd nap🙃 said id post two- with one monster arb and one decent arb the targets.
(And focused in on the research to nab those 2. Those two in perfect shape atm- but the greedy 3rd one is langushing in ‘No mans land’ I could only get €16 each way at 80s and actually laid €24 of that off (thereabouts) for arbs value at the time. But was extremly low liquidy then (which got eaten by my small lay) A regular folly of early bird Irish low liquid (unknown types) arb hunting.🤞🏻👍+0
Why did i get greedy and post that 3rd nap🙃 said id post two- with one monster arb and one decent arb the targets.
(And focused in on the research to nab those 2. Those two in perfect shape atm- but the greedy 3rd one is langushing in ‘No mans land’ I could only get €16 each way at 80s and actually laid €24 of that off (thereabouts) for arbs value at the time. But was extremly low liquidy then (which got eaten by my small lay) A regular folly/educated risk factor of early bird, Irish low liquid (unknown types) arb hunting.🤞🏻👍+0
Another monster of the year contender on Field Emery😄👍 very nice on Kempstone👍
Forgive me the 3rd- hopefully BOG will cushion some if the lay losses incured there🙃+0Can’t buy a place at the moment! Might have to start laying the place and taking the guaranteed.
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Phew!! Nowt un the frame. 430.0 bsp in 2nd (not f fougo mind) Neither of your two either Andy🙃On we go! to the next cartoon..tomorrow👍
Dont think Bangor Doyle (3rd) ever came into range (maybe very doors at low liquid or very late on🤔)+0
Aye Andy very true. And yes big price place arb overlays could be the way forward🤔 to help keep morale going (esp with just one meet a day- an actual big price arb actually making rhe frame will almost take many more days than during normal 4+ meets a day times) I know Antisocial likes a nice guarnteed so maybe hes being doing nicley🤞🏻👍 on this weeks naps/his own scalps.
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As i have found myself when it comes to laying in general (mb races/arbs) Keeping the morale/spirits up by laying/even overlaying at times can be a long term positive thing to do/consider. For despite the additional commision costs incurred by more laying- this smallish overall extra loss can be offset by keeping confidence/energies up for moving on to the next day/arb and maximising oppurtunites👍
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Field Emery 50/1 nap (stine last!) off 15.25/3.05
Could have split the difference between the 50/1 on that (MOY) contender – and lay prices at off time. Locked in a 100% prof and still had a monster shot👍+0
That would have more than covered the ‘no mans land’ tanker Fougo -approx 60% loss at off lays/bog
Kempstone 50/1- marginal eway arb at off. 93/5.6.
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MOY is my own new abreiviation for Monster of the year. Adding M or W at the end will be put in to represent Month/Week respectivley
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That post about locking in 100% prof on Field Emery by ‘splitting the difference’. Should read overlaying the lay price on win/place by 100% . Ie back €25 each way at 50/1. Lay €50 on the win at off time 15.25 and €50 on the place at off price 3.05. Thus if it won – win pays €1250 + €25 stake- minus the €762.50 lost on exchange (up €487.50) and for it placing..up €250 minus about €105 on exchange (up about €145) And if it comes nowhere (which it did ) Up a straight €50 + 100% (minus about €1 on comms)
So some complex stuff (esp after long day) which I quoted in the wrong way/ but which does what it was supossed to say on the tin – more or less😅. In that posistion one have had to calculate everything into what is the ‘spliting the difference’ figures at off time- and thus locking in a higher guarnteed profit (than the 100% quoted) and thus leaving a reduced/same profit if the horse won/placed.😅 Many ways to skin an arb👍Hope there no racing tomorrow🙃😄 as im exhausted after clearing up/typing those last few posts.
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Could’nt help myself..the correct lays for locking in close to exact ‘split the difference’s’ on that Field Emery position, would have been thus (im not breaking down in pence or factoring in €2/3 comms- and maybe €1 or so off🙃
50/1 (€25 each way)
Lay the win for €83.60 at off price 15.25
Wins..up €1250 at bookie..down on exchange 83.60 x 14.25 = €1191.30
Thus up €58.70 if winning or €58.60 if losing.Lay for the place €90.50 at off price 3.05..
Places..up €250 at bookie.. down at exchange 90.5 x 2.05 = €185.52.
Thus up €64.48 if it places..up €65.50 if it dosntSo the split the difference lock in equal(ish) guarntee were these figures. Thus a profit very close to €123 could have been locked in with 50/1 on Emery at those off prices.. with finishing position not mattering..
Monster! Feel a bit gutted i didnt do this today myself (antisocial🎺) A new kind of outline/set of figures to look back on for reference when in a rush and considering a big ‘lock in’ when in the monster zone. Although i know, i for one will trim back on the lock in on monster win arbs/ because id feel too gutted on those rare times a monster big price arb dosnt just place but wins!👍If ive majorly missed/got something wrong anything in these figures. Please post up- as a bit of a He who dares wins type arber myself (andy👍) ive not looked too deeply into overlay options much before. Certainly not ‘split the differences’ anyway.
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Looks like the usual ‘Moody Mondays’ is continuing into the ‘Lockout’ period. Cant see anything likely to be worth the effort at Naas tomorrow. Opening race on cut off at 8r – may offer crummage , with no nrs. Not a day to be up early scanning prices and checking form etc -me thinks🙃
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And that’s good night folks
+0Fairview? Can still make a tickle on the Paddy Money Back Specials haha!
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