Hilary Clinton popular vote
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Hey
I think I’ve spotted a potential arb but have no idea. Hilary Clinton to win the popular vote is 7/2 with paddypower and betfred but is laying at 3.6 (4.5 vs 3.6) on betfair. Am I reading this correctly or am I looking at two completely different markets. Any help appreciated?
+0November 7, 2016 at 8:27 pm
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Sorry meant to say by 50-52.99%
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Looks good to me.
+0Thanks MrT. FYI it’s laying at 4.1 now. Still time to make an arb
+0Thanks guys quick bit of profit before bed. Also on pp trump is 7/2 to back and 3.6 to lay on the 41-43.99 percent.
+0Also the high end of Clinton electorial votes is on backed one at 6/4.9 and 19/16
+0It would be a sad state of affairs to get the gub stick over those two idiots.
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Clinton 360+ electoral college votes now 19/12 (PP/Betfair)
Usual ‘same company’ warnings apply for those without accounts in different names.
Thanks to OP and beesty for putting me into these markets ;)
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Yeah, oversight on my part – it’ll be an interesting test of the theory though. TBH, of my 15 active bookies, PP is the 15th most profitable, so I’d not be devastated. I’m sure there’s value in their offers, but variance has been kicking my arse for weeks.
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Mad scenes on these markets – seems that the bookies don’t have a clue how to price some of them! That 19.0 at PP was still available all night and has only been pulled in the last 15 mins or so.
Some arbs that I have seen at various bookies on the Electoral College votes and % of Popular Vote markets…
2.38/2.18
6.0/5.0
5.0/4.6
3.0/2.78If I had been more prepared I could have made a killing on this!
Hope others are making money from these markets too ;)
+0The only risk I can see is whether there are different ways of reporting the outcomes – for a couple of the markets, PP explicitly states they will be using figures published by CNN, for example. This leaves me slightly nervous that there may be room for different interpretations of the outcome that could be unpleasant for matched bettors. I might be being too cautious, though. I’ve only bet what I can afford to lose, in this case.
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The good news is that Betfair also go by the CNN published results too (as you would expect!), but I know what you mean.
I tried to see what other bookies went off, but none of them said (Fred for example).
To be honest though, I would have thought that for something of this magnitude the various news agencies would all end up with the same figures? They will “project” different outcomes through the night, but surely they all have to end up publishing/using the “official” results.
+0@albatros good point on the gubbing stick!
To think in 24 hours one of these clowns will basically be running the world! *shudders*
+0Being already gubbed from Paddy means its worth the risk. Made around 20 from all of the arbs. Once your gubbed from promotions it’s just a case of seeing what else you can make from arbing.
What makes me laugh is how generic some of the emails are when banning me from promotions. On one website I didn’t even do an offer when e/w arbing so had a right old go at them. Obviously nothing happened but just wanted to make a point.
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Was just 5/4.8 for a while on many sites. Defo one to keep an eye on in play today and tonight
Agree beesty with taking them for all they are worth once banned from promos as well! I have found that they often restrict on horse racing first too so can still get big bet arbs on footi or things like this
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