Hilary Clinton popular vote
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Hey
I think I’ve spotted a potential arb but have no idea. Hilary Clinton to win the popular vote is 7/2 with paddypower and betfred but is laying at 3.6 (4.5 vs 3.6) on betfair. Am I reading this correctly or am I looking at two completely different markets. Any help appreciated?
+0November 7, 2016 at 8:27 pm
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Big disclaimer! I’m not sure if these are the same markets..
Sky –
Democrats Electoral College Votes – Total Electoral College Votes
300-329 at 3.0
Betfair –
2016 US Presidential Election – Clinton Electoral College Votes
300-329 at 2.5ish
I haven’t bet on this because I’m not sure if they are the same market.. Anybody an expert on US politics??
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Clinton is a Democrat. They are the same market, yes.
As already stated, just be careful that you can’t get stung by Sky citing their winner from one source and the exchange from another. Unlikely but possible.
+0I spoke to Skybet and they confirmed its the same market as Tony said. They said the press conference from each State dictates the result so there shouldn’t be any discrepancies !! I can’t imagine two or more results can you ? I have done the above myself so i hope not lol.
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No way that there will be different results.
I think it’s still possible for a Democrat to win a state other than Clinton, but it would be huge odds as there’d be no point voting for them (rather a waste of a vote/more chance Trump winning)
+0Thanks crispy, better late than never to enter this.
Saw a tip to look out for arbs on this but didn’t realise the volume of opportunities. Also read this post last night but it sounded so good I figured it must been a different market!+0
Thanks Tony and LuvFooty..
+0There are no other Democrats in , the others bar Trump are from the Libertarian, Green , Constitution and Independent parties …. so it has to be the same market.
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Sky cut to 2.63 on the particular outcome now, but I got a fair wedge on at 3.0/2.68 (surprisingly as I gubbed at Sky!) so thanks for posting MrCrispy ;)
Lay has dropped now but no worries, that’s the 7th bet I’ve placed on this particular market.
Might have to monitor all bookie sites and just keep adding to the arbfest!
I had no idea there would be this many opportunities!
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Is the popular vote percentage the same as just regular vote percentage?…
+0Well as far as I can see the Electoral votes are simply regular votes and who ever wins takes all ; the electors for the relevant number allocated to each state are then pledged to the presidential candidate who wins the most votes in that state. So one vote is how i see it … unless anyone else knows more :)
+0Got to be a bit cautious as the American voting system is weird. Someone could win the popular vote, but not be the winner of the election (like with Al Gore vs Bush). Check and recheck market rules before arbing guys.
+0True wottsy but only happened 4 times in history and only Bush is a recent one. The popular votes and electoral votes are completely different markets …. the first decides who gets all the electoral votes for each state. It’s hard to get them mixed up ;)
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Clinton popular vote % market has a couple arbs on PP v Betfair (yeah, yeah… same company…)
53%+ was 10.0/7.6 for a while there (lay 8.2 now) and 50% – 52.99% is currently 4.0/3.65
+0On Paddy & Coral:
Clinton/Democrat Electoral College Votes, 300-329 @2.75, laying 2.6-2.62 on BF.
+0How much are people having to stake for this to actually be worth it?
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