Hilary Clinton popular vote
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Hey
I think I’ve spotted a potential arb but have no idea. Hilary Clinton to win the popular vote is 7/2 with paddypower and betfred but is laying at 3.6 (4.5 vs 3.6) on betfair. Am I reading this correctly or am I looking at two completely different markets. Any help appreciated?
+0November 7, 2016 at 8:27 pm
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Looks like this might drag on until the end of the month according to some sources.
I will be going down the complaints route with them as there is no way they are sitting on this much of my money for even longer than they already have.
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I’m tempted to just cash out on this . Got 350 tied up on Clinton vote percentage, 53% or more. Obviously the lay bet has won, so dont have a clue why they cant just settle it. Live chat are useless. Would cost me 3 quid but need those funds for each way arbs.
+0They won’t settle until their source confirms the result … cashing out is the only way.
+0Sky bet settled as lost yday morning on this market. Betfair still holding on
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Talking to Betfair live chat is like banging your head against a brick wall! They AGREE that no matter the outcome of the “3” outstanding states (CNN lists only Michigan as outstanding) Clinton cannot get more than 270 votes (obviously otherwise they wouldn’t have paid out on Trump for Next POTUS!!) yet they point blank refuse to settle bets on lines within the market that are DEFINITE winners and losers.
It’s now almost certainly going to take until the end of the month to resolve. Interesting article here (replace xx with tt):
hxxp://heavy.com/news/2016/11/michigan-new-hampshire-arizona-election-results-2016-called-calls-ap-cnn-have-they-been-called-why-havent-returns-votes-recount-trump-clinton-hillary-wisconsin/
Fortunately I’m not hamstrung by them holding my money indefinitely but if I was I’d have to cash out and set fire to £21 of my (completely guaranteed!) profits
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Agree Betfair live chat are absolutely useless and manned by a load of idiots who have no idea about promotions and how they work etc.
I didnt get on this one but I was chasing a free bet from yesterday on the 3/1 promotion and two guys I spoke to didnt know what the promotion was, one sent me a link to an RTE promotion which expired in February this year. Others didnt understand I was waiting on a £25 free bet and kept telling me i had been paid my winnings.
In the end I didnt get the free bet because even though the race went off late, I placed my bet 39 seconds after the due off time (3.15pm). Its in the T&C’s apparently but I couldnt be bothered to look and it seems really harsh but oh well, had a good Saturday and Sunday so let it go.
+0That’s annoying chris a couple of years ago I used to do 6 teams in their accas and swap them around as 6 lots of 5 folds for their acca promotion. You used to get a free bet if one let you down up to four in a 24 hour period.
Got hit with all the terms and conditions until I finally got through to a manager who credited 14 free bets and basically said what a great strategy and if I fancied a job.
I know how great you’ve done chris and 25 quid may not be worth the time with all of your successes but it’s the principal that annoys me more. Sometimes now with live chat I just leave a conversation as sometimes even after the initial convo you can just tell your not going to get anywhere.
+0According to both Mike Smithson (Political Betting Blog) and Nate Silver (Fivethirtyeight) it could be January before they have final figures for the vote percentage and turnout. Electoral college should settle before that (I think they’re just waiting for Michigan now), but could still be a while. If you can’t wait that long, just cash out. The hit is relatively small, almost certainly smaller than the opportunity cost of having all that money doing nothing! Links below for those interested.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-voter-turnout-wasnt-way-down-from-2012/
+0Anyone else not got a cash out on the % Clinton popular vote market on betfair?
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Ok so update, Electoral college votes has been settled, nice surprise when I logged in a few minutes ago. Vote percentage still to go though…
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Woo-fu**ing-hoo!!!
Only took them 21 days to settle then…. tossers!
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Ha so strange after I kicked up a fuss this mornin…maybe they do listen to their customers afterall
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What would we do without you, Matchie?.
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