My theory beyond matched betting
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Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.
The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.
For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)
Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.
As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.
Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.
+2June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm
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beesty, was just wandering, when you were doing your big stakes (1k e/w) did you not run into the problem of your lay bets not matching and the odds moving in the wrong direction
+0nice one poker4life. how many races did that include for that profit?
Mike I think he said he always waited for the lay bet to match 1st. So he was always just left with the place part then which is always lower odds usually.
+0Beetsy did you manage to get 200 today like you said and did you achieve it using just limited accounts?
+0Pretend @ 9.00
£50.00 Single 09/07/2016 16:49:16 50.00 0.00Limato @ 7.00
£50.00 EW Single 09/07/2016 15:25:35 100.00 475.00Early Morning @ 9.00
£50.00 EW Single 09/07/2016 14:50:45 100.00 0.00Royal Birth @ 10.00
£50.00 EW Single 09/07/2016 12:13:02 100.00 662.50
and did 3 on sky as well i lay the win part about 15 mins b4 and lay place about 5 mins b4+0Im still new to the each way bit and did lose out last week when a horse got withdrawn and payed only 2 places lol think i had different journey as a lot did on here
+0Chris, any joy? I did my 1st one today and lost 8p!!! I’m doing something wrong :-)
+0Excellent result poker4life, I’m struggling to get my head round it. It took me 4 12hr shifts at work for my mate to explain MB, now I find and place them in no time
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Nice one poker4life, so 7 races you done and made 200, impressive. Always the 50 e/w stakes aren’t huge and shouldn’t attract much attention.
+0Poker4life do u only place two stakes? Back each way and lay to win?
+0Nice results yesterday in the end my mates went to the pub so I joined them for an all day drinking session. As a result I didn’t get on them.
Always another race on another day. Great to know about a 200 win with 50 ew. That should be fine in betting shops and counted 10 around my gym yesterday so something to do on another day.
+0I got lucky with 1 though i had to place the lay part in play on the place but the horse was in front so the place part was 1.5
+0I get the basic gist of this thing, i think, you’re laying the place at a price that’s lower than the each way part of the bet, hopefully. so why do you need to do the win part, can you not just back the place earlier on then lay the place at the lower price just before the off to make your profit.
+0@daveh
that would make things easier if you could find the value. The problem is the place only market at the bookie will give you far worse odds than the place portion of an each way bet.The odds for the place part of an each way bet are figured out by doing a basic maths equation on the win odds. That is obviously not an ideal situation for the bookie as they cant independently control these place odds in line with the exchange. This is where the value come from; the bookies are giving you a place bet at odds that don’t reflect the real chance the horse has of placing.
+0Not really gregg but most importantly for me starting out on this, I didn’t lose anything.
I understand the extra place offers now and using the calculator makes it very easy but it can be a headache if a horse is withdrawn as one was in the race I did on Saturday. Well worth doing though as profits can be huge.
+0Ive been hitting some each way arbs over the past few weeks but in a slightly different way to how it is being discussed here.
This might have been mentioned already, but what is the logic behind your selection criteria for a race in which this method will work? I have just been looking for races with an odds on fave, since you can usually find a couple of good each way arbs right before the off. I try to do 2 horses if i can as it spreads liability and reduces chance of having to pay commission.
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