My theory beyond matched betting

Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

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beesty2016
7

June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm

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mike j 13 July 11, 2016 at 1:14 pm

@wottsy
Are you still backing/laying the win at an earlier time or just before kickoff. I sometimes struggle finding a good qualifying loss and then only making a tiny profit <5%

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wottsy 4 July 11, 2016 at 2:55 pm

@mike j
I do the whole shebang right before the off. Have to be quick and make sure you have all your calcs and stuff ready. Im just cautious about trying to predict price movements and want to know that the method you guys are talking about is profitable and why.

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BoomShakaLaka 0 July 11, 2016 at 4:26 pm

Just did my first one today in the Ayr 3:30.
Manged to make £13 profit from £25ew bet. Cheers beesty for opening my eyes to this!

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poker4life 1 July 11, 2016 at 5:56 pm

Im doing the 6.30 windsor tis marvelios at 25 ew at 1.50 sky lay 1.45 betfair place 1 only 3,46 profit but it all counts

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poker4life 1 July 11, 2016 at 5:58 pm

place gone to 1.11 now should com bk down 5 mins b4

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poker4life 1 July 11, 2016 at 6:44 pm

yeh wast of time laying the place on that 1 lol

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lb1234 0 July 12, 2016 at 12:07 am

What’s the chances of being gubbed by doing e/w arbing ?

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deathstar 39 July 12, 2016 at 6:29 am

you won’t get gubbed from e/w but you will have the amount of money you can put on severely limited.
And usually you will still be able to get on extra places as well because this is a change in terms rather than a bonus.
I say usually because I read elsewhere of somebody being banned from extra places by Ladbrokes.

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cumbriangregg 0 July 12, 2016 at 9:24 am

Morning, is there an odds finder for the place lay?

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Bullman 0 July 23, 2016 at 3:54 pm

Hello here,
im doing MB for three monts, so im not absolute newbie. But im not totally familiar with horses, i started few weeks ago with bet365 Channel 4 refunds, classic method. Anyway, reading this topic makes me completely confused. I have read trough twice, but im still not sure, what to do correctly.

So i decided to ask on some things, i attached a pdf with pictures and questions, it is focused on placing bets on specific example. Finding a suitable race leave for another time.
PDF: https://bit.ly/2a0Fnio

Would be someone so good and help me? :)

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Jay 2 July 24, 2016 at 10:01 am

The E/W betting is quite interesting but can’t really wrap my head around it. So you guys bet on the favorite in a given race, lay of the win part straight away for a loss, but keep the place part open until 5 mins before off?

Is there a way you know which horses odds will plummet or is this just a guess work?

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Dave_Jones 12 July 24, 2016 at 10:42 am

@Jay I think you need to read over the thread again, in particular read very carefully what beesty has written. Although its sometimes the fav that is selected, its more like one or more of the other horses in the race. If you read over the made up example beesty gave where he made up the odds it will start to make sense to you what is happening.

Be careful though, as this situation is very well known in the industry and bookies do watch out for it and you are likely to get restricted. I think beesty was lucky to get away for it for so long and make the money that he did.

I also think its not something you should do unless you are a very quick thinker (I am not by the way), you will often find that you only have a few seconds to do your calcs, make your decisions and put your bets on. Unless you are very comfortable making financial decisions under pressure and in a very short period of time then you might want to give this a miss.

I suspect beesty is one of those lucky people who can cope with these kinds of things and not make too many mistakes, there are not too many people like him around. So the chances of most of us making anything like the money he made doing this are extremely small.

When I have tried doing this, I rarely do better than break even, which is fine if your doing it as part of another offer (bet365 4/1 or sky bet first race special for example).

You can also sometimes get lucky with BOG as I did yesterday on the place part with the sky offer. The fav won, so I got a FB plus I got BOG on the place part of my E/W bet.

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beesty2016 7 July 24, 2016 at 7:35 pm

That’s pretty much it Dave on a little break from it atm until Goodwood. It’s all quick calculations and being able to get as much on as you can. Bet365 told me they audit accounts monthly so it seems like I was lucky that I had a decent run on it. Was getting 50 bonuses towards the end so was beginning to wonder if they thought i was a total mug bettor.

It’s been a bit more frustrating since the 365 and skybet gubbings.

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Bullman 0 July 24, 2016 at 10:24 pm

The biggest problem, which i see (now i fully understand how it works) is, how found so big market for laying win part. For example £50 win bet with back and lay odds 10 (9/1) i need £450 market on exchange, but usually is there only around £100 or less available.
Similiar, but smaller problem is, when laying place part. How do you handle this?

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Dave_Jones 12 July 24, 2016 at 11:42 pm

@Bullman, you are confusing your liability with what is required on the exchange. If you make a £50 win bet at the bookies you only need just over £50 on the exchange if the back and lay odds are the same. The £450 in your example is your liability, you do not need to see £450 available on the exchange.

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