My theory beyond matched betting

Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

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beesty2016
7

June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm

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Bullman 0 July 25, 2016 at 9:05 am

@Dave_Jones, now i understand, my mistake, thank you for explanation :)

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Dave_Jones 12 July 25, 2016 at 9:13 am

Your welcome Bullman, I can remember when I also used to get confused with this very thing, it takes a while to get all this stuff sorted in your head, and if your like most people you actually need to do it for real. Just reading about it does not seem to make it all clear, but after placing quite a few back and lay bets it all starts to make sense.

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Bullman 0 July 26, 2016 at 5:09 pm

Still have a problem to select correct races and horses. Today i was testing this method on some races with excel, but theoretical profit is small or there is a loss. I was looking for races with 8-11 horses, where are 2 and more outsiders. Im missing something?

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deathstar 39 July 26, 2016 at 7:14 pm

have another read Bullman
Beesty2016 wrote –
“The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite”

so he’s saying that it works best with races with 8 or 9 horses with a couple of outsiders, or races with between 16 and 20 horses.

incidentally, if you have enough time e/w arbs can sometimes be found in any race if you are quick enough to catch them when the odds change as the markets start to move. it gets easier with practice.

HTH

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daveh 0 July 30, 2016 at 1:47 pm

Could there be a way to use a betting bot to take advantage of this. For example use the bookies for the each way part of the bet and then lay on the exchanges, then use the bet bot to set the parameters for the lay when the price drops.
I’m still trying to get my head around it by using Bet Bot Pro, this way you can do all the each way bet/lay and place lay hours before the races start then set the bot to lay the place minutes before the off and set the price to below what you’ve laid it at.
The only disadvantage is you would need to open a new instance for each race that you’re doing the bet for. Does that make sense, in theory it should work so if you have work during the day the bot should do all the hard work for you.

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daveh 0 July 30, 2016 at 2:17 pm

4.55 at Goodwood , back Reputation at 8/1 each way and lay at 9 on Smarkets. Lay the place at 2.46 on Smarkets then set the bot to lay the place and set the max odds to whatever you want. i’ve set it at 2.30. leave it running and see what happens.

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daveh 0 July 30, 2016 at 2:38 pm

what am i on about , doh , back to the drawing board lol.

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hydro 11 August 2, 2016 at 6:29 pm

Does anyone have any good example for upcoming races where this method could be tried? I’m only trying it out now.

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dingodollar 8 August 2, 2016 at 9:08 pm

I have been doing a few of these and hit a 37 % e/w arb earlier insane and if I held my nerve could of got over 40%! The price crashed to be fair but you could make some big profits here, I have the funds to be doing £250 ew but I want to keep my accounts!

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hydro 11 August 2, 2016 at 10:08 pm

Can you recommend any races tomorrow to keep an eye out for.

I understand the concept pretty much but do not understand how it can be used to consistently guarantee profit. Is the price drop really that reliable?

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dingodollar 8 August 3, 2016 at 7:38 am

I have been doing it on races where you are getting enhanced place terms. Say a bookie is offering 1/4 odds on all races yet all the others are offering 1/5 then you know you are going to be getting extra value here and you don’t have to look through loads of races

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dingodollar 8 August 3, 2016 at 7:43 am

Regarding the price drop they do come in but I was setting a maximum so if the horse started drifting to an outsider you lay at the point where u would make no loss/gain but I can’t recall this happening many times as you can pick the good each ways before you place your bet as this is where the profit is

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Bill 0 August 7, 2016 at 9:23 am

Hi all,

I am trying to wrap my head around this and have a few questions.

I am looking to bet on Free passage 7.5 at the 16:40 Windsor today

If I put on a £10 e/w bet, how do I calculate how much to lay for the place part of the bet?

Cheers

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Dave_Jones 12 August 7, 2016 at 9:42 am

@ Bill, although the following link isn’t exactly what you are looking for I think it will help you get your head around what has been going on in this thread. Its Matts extra place strategy which of course involves each way betting and so it should be of some assistance to you.

https://matchedbettingblog.com/extra-place-offers/#.V6bzMCZTHIU

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dingodollar 8 August 7, 2016 at 11:24 am

@bill-

antodev.com/extraplace

Whilst this may not properly make you understand it it will give you the formula to see your profits.Great tool that someone posted on here

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