My theory beyond matched betting

Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

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beesty2016
7

June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm

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Bill 0 August 7, 2016 at 2:31 pm

Just to confirm,

I place an extra way bet
I place a lay extra place bet on the same horse

Or do I place a lay bet on the normal win market on the same horse?

Then I place a lay place bet.

Hope that’s clear.

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Dave_Jones 12 August 7, 2016 at 3:36 pm

I was hoping that link to Matts extra place strategy might have helped you, but I think it may have confused you. Maybe the following will be useful.

1. At the bookies make an each way bet, lets say for example £10 each way on horse A, this will cost you a total of £20, that’s £10 on the win part, and £10 on the place part.

2. At the exchange make a lay bet to cover the win part of the bookies win bet.

3. At the exchange make a lay bet to cover the place part of the bookies place bet.

So that’s a total of three bets, obviously you will only be making these bets if the odds available are in your favour. If you look through this thread you will see several examples of when this has happened.

I think though, and I have mentioned this in the past on this thread, until you have a reasonable amount of matched betting experience then you should be steering clear of this kind of thing. There are several things that can go wrong with this strategy, and until you have a few months of matched betting under your belt I would leave it for now. There is plenty of money to be made before you need to look at trying to implement this.

I am sure the thought of making the thousands of pounds beesty made is very tempting, but I suspect he is the exception, very few people could replicate what he achieved.

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jd 0 August 10, 2016 at 4:08 pm

So I just wanted to check my understanding of each way arbs as I’ve been looking in to it recently.
Using an example from today.
The 14.30 at Beverley was a maiden stakes race, had 7 runners and 1 NR.
Mister Moosah was 17 at BV and e/w was 1/4 for first 2 places. Effectively making the place part 5.
The lay win odds were 18.5
The lay place odds were 2.76

By using the extra place calculator link above results in;
£50 e/w @ 17 @ BV (£100)
£47.35 lay win.
£91.58 lay place.

Mister Moosah performed as his odds suggested and finished 5th out of 7.

So lose £100 at BV, and win £138.93 at BF, -5% commission = £131.98. £31.98 profit.

The calculator gave figures the same (albeit a few pennies different) had he won or placed.

Is someone able to confirm that this is an example of each way arbing?

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MarkCorrigan 17 August 10, 2016 at 4:14 pm

The odds you’re quoting (2.76) were for the three place market, not two places.

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jd 0 August 10, 2016 at 4:30 pm

ah, I see. So had Mister Moosah finished third it would have been disastrous in that example.
Using the above example, had the place markets been the same, it would have been a correct example? (Obviously the place lay odds would have been different)

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Blank 0 August 11, 2016 at 3:05 pm

Thanks for posting this @beesty2016 – I’ve been cautiously looking over it this week and I think, although it’s not completely risk free there is good money to be made.

The real key is identifying the correct races. I like 9runners as there is extra buffer if one drops out.
The reason for the discrepancy is the bookies work out the odds of a horse winning, but just assume to divide by 4or5 for the place odds. In some circumstances (e.g. a there are a few heavy outsiders), this isn’t an accurate representation of the odds of a place and we can take advantage.

And I thought matched betting was over!

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dingodollar 8 August 11, 2016 at 9:54 pm

Also worth noting 188bet run 2 enhanced place terms races per day which are good for the extra value.They did a whole meet one day last week with about 7 races as they were the sponsor but only two races offered better terms than all the other bookies.

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betman 41 September 8, 2016 at 8:02 pm

I get the theory here, but when I looked last week the sums didn’t work, not sure if the races I picked were ‘too obvious’ but whilst the each way arb was there the win was a huge loss with the exchange price huge compared to the bookies.
First race I watched I ended up trading as the exchange price was so big, so made a small profit in race.
Second race I profited on the each way section, but to make the overall bit work relied on the price shortening in running which failed me this time.

So how often are the real opportunities there? And is there some kind of timing secret to avoid these price gaps

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FoG_BLoG 60 September 8, 2016 at 8:26 pm

Hi betman. I am with you. I started scanning the races for opportunities, since about last week. I scan all races every day at 5 minute intervals and I haven’t identified any clear cut opportunities yet.

In the past I have have stumbled across these races quite by accident when looking at qualifying bets for some of the promos.

I think that there must be some trick here in that you:

1. Back e/w at the bookie.
2. Only lay the win part.

I think you have to get on these early because if you don’t someone else will and the bookie will immediately start adjusting their prices and the window of opportunity closes.

I am guessing you then have to wait to closer to the off to put in your lay on the place part. Early on, the place market seems very quiet so hard to find value, it only really comes alive before the race.

So, final step:

3. Just before race lay the place part.

I think I like this idea because if the bookie odds have risen then you will probably have a big enough arb on the win part due to BOG, so although the place lay will also have risen in comparison to the early price, you are probably still on a winner. And if the bookie price has shortened then the place price will have come in a decent amount too logically so should have a big arb on the place part of the bet you took at the bookie earlier.

The key would be finding close back and lay to win odds on the horses likely to finish 3rd or 4th and in races where the e/w odds are likely to be very generous (ie with a few horses with very long odds).

Haven’t tried any of this yet though. So its all just in theory.

But yea, question to beesty and co. are you backing and laying both win and place at the same time or what is the trick?

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Gman 5 September 8, 2016 at 10:46 pm

Fog – i’m fortunate in the sense that ive got a subscription to another mb site which has software that finds the best matches, theyre most profitable when the bookie is paying 1/4 odds, i wont even bother looking if its 1/5th. It more often than not is bet365 that has the best matches as they seem the slowest to shorten their prices as well as paying 1/4 on a lot more races. but yeah i lay the win and the place at the same time, today wasnt the best but as an example i got 25 e/w on kilmah on the 1.55 with bet365, lay win was 5.2 and lay place was 1.8. , so a profit of just over £1 and chance for 50 risk free on the next race. If youre up early enough then there are big profits to be made from racing posts pricewise selections but the danger with those is the arb is on the win part and could jeaporise your online accounts.

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FoG_BLoG 60 September 8, 2016 at 11:24 pm

Gman, that’s what I used to find too, I often played e/w on B365 for small qualifying loss or qualifying profit like that.

But others have been talking about making £1000 in a weekend on e/w arbs, I am not coming across that potential.

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Gman 5 September 8, 2016 at 11:36 pm

Yeah i get you fog, the biggest single profit ive seen on one horse was about £47, needed to back about 400 e/w for that. staking restrictions severely hamper you, to make the kind of profits beestys been referring to, his accounts must be or must have been in really good health. but then theres also the alernative of doing it in shop.

i avoid any races where 2 nr’s will affect the place payout, its too risky as you could lose both the back and lay place parts of the bet.

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Gman 5 September 8, 2016 at 11:39 pm

theres also another way of doing it, called each way dutching. basically you cover the whole field with each way bets, no laying involved. but this only works when many bookies are paying out an extra place. ive not been able to utilise this due to staking limits, or accounts being closed. but ive seen some folks make 150 on 1 race, as you also have the potential for bog on horses that win/place.

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FoG_BLoG 60 September 8, 2016 at 11:48 pm

Thanks Gman. I gotta keep learning.

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beaser 8 September 8, 2016 at 11:48 pm

I’ve followed this thread with interest. I tried it twice this week with small stakes. I locked in £10 on £50 e/w and £6 on £30 e/w, so roughly 10% guaranteed profit on my stake. I subscribe to oddsmonkey and checked the e/w matcher. To be honest I thought it was crap! I found better e/w arbs myself very quickly. I looked for the criteria Beesty suggested and found them no problems.

I’m not saying anyone is BSing, but I struggle to see how you could make the claimed profits here….. Perhaps a market inefficiency has already closed…..

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