My theory beyond matched betting

Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

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beesty2016
4

June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm

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Chris 22 December 7, 2016 at 11:50 am

Nice of you to take my tip here supert and post it on the twitter account 😛

Not that I mind at all.

I went smaller stakes today but took 15.0 ew at Stan James on Between the Waters. The win lay is down to 15.0.

Fingers crossed for no non runners.

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Tony C
Blocked
1 December 7, 2016 at 12:05 pm

30 pages of posts, can someone spare me all the reading and tell me – does this thing work after all? As I’ve seen few critics of the author… Cheers lads

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MbPunter 24 December 7, 2016 at 12:13 pm

If you were trying to put people off because of a loss in value. Why look to advertise it to even more people?

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FoG_BLoG 60 December 7, 2016 at 12:40 pm

Yes it works Blue Tony.

Chris’s example of Between the Waters if you got the back and lay @ 15.0, the place is at 3.45 at the moment but will probably drop, say you wait and you lay the place at 3.0 just before the off.

Then you have £50 ew (=£100 total staked at the bookie). And you have laid £50.07 @ 15.0 on the win market at bookie. You will also lay £63.76 @ 3.0 on the “to place” market at the bookie. Total liability = £828.45 on the exchange. And you guarantee £11.55 profit no matter the outcome.

Problem 1: The prices on the exchange for the place part only really form a few minutes before the race. So that’s why you leave it to lay that later.

Problem 2: You need a lot of money in the exchange.

Problem 3: There are small enough margins in this, so you have to make absolute sure to get as close a match as possible on the win lay. These opportunities might only last seconds before the bookies pulls in their price.

Risk 1: The place part drifts out and you lose a little money.

Risk 2: A few non runners means that the bookie is only paying out two places but the exchange remains at 3 places. If your horses finishes 3rd you win nothing at the bookie but lose a shed load at the exchange.

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supert 6 December 7, 2016 at 1:04 pm

One thing to add fog is that if you underlay the place to only break even if unplaces there is far greater potential for bigger profits… so between the waters is now 3.0 lay compared to 3.8… if you are happy to risk just your commission on £50 you have a potential profit now of £40 … so to me is like having a £2.50 bet on a 2/1 shot to return £42.50! If you got the other horse in the race we tipped grey day and underlay that place too £50 ew the place you were getting 3.2 once the tip was given and should easily get 2.6 matched so 0.6 of £50 which is £30 profit… again one of these 2 horses should place and then there will be no commission on the place of the other… if both place then you just made £70 virtually risk free

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supert 6 December 7, 2016 at 1:06 pm

Oh and Chris this was a race we targetted last night and hadnt seen your post first mate… but great spot… i think you are getting the hang of what we look for … also if there is a nr in that race we would cut our losses and lay on 2tbp tab near the off mate!@

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sleepless 9 December 7, 2016 at 1:50 pm

Give it a go. You need time to watch twitter (some have to work for a living, lol). Liquidity seems to be main problem for me.

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sleepless 9 December 7, 2016 at 1:56 pm

Newbie Tony – you need to go through the posts or you won’t really understand the process and will be asking questions when you could be betting. Won’t take long, most posts can be ignored. I see you are new to this. It isn’t a quick-fire route to riches. It’s hard work, especially to start.

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feltt1p 7 December 7, 2016 at 2:26 pm

O err.. First time doing this and feel sketchy as hell. Managed Gray Day at 9.0/8.0/2.2 for £13.50.

That’ll do. Sweaty.

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feltt1p 7 December 7, 2016 at 2:32 pm

Yep, typical. Wins. Any chance it drifted at all? Hell no. haha.

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Chris 22 December 7, 2016 at 2:59 pm

I underlayed Between the Waters after the place lay didnt come in as much as expected. Nice to see he came third so a small but nice profit of £36 there.

If you followed supert’s recommendations on the twitter you would have made a tidy amount.

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supert 6 December 7, 2016 at 3:53 pm

Yes that ‘joke twitter account’ came up trumps again… grey day was smashed to 1.96 place lay from 3.2!

Was nearly crying thou with Mortens Leam… 33/1 backed down to 12/1
7.6/3.0 place arb… was on for £400 but underlaid like the others ..
£160 if would have just placed ffs!!! But made a tidy sum on grey day so cant grumble!!

Joke Twitter Account PMSL!!!

Can Beasty set one up so i dont keep getting in trouble off the mrs for being on my phone all the time??? But rather than just post races post the horses at the exact right moment?? @tjebookieangel will be his first follower

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harris 6 December 7, 2016 at 4:05 pm

Keep it up supert, tomorrow we go again 😉

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harris 6 December 7, 2016 at 7:15 pm

Say what you like about the bookie Angel but there’s 6/2.6 arb on the place there and 21/6.6 on the win. This page is unreal.

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sleepless 9 December 7, 2016 at 7:22 pm

pennies from heaven

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