The Open Offers

Ppl are starting to get giddy about the open. Couple of posts already.

Betstars are doing their usual bog offer and their free bets for eagles. Both worth while.

Sky are gone TEN places which I think is a great sign. I’m enjoying this little battle that the bookies have going to see who can offer the most places. With the ten places there is marginally value on pretty much all the top ten each way (except Dustin who they have quoted terrible odds for as have most).

The surprise package is Sun here with actual decent odds. 16/1 on Dustin for example where some other good bookies are as low as 12/1. With 7 places too on Sun I think it isn’t bad value for an extra place shot. Sun are best price on the top 20. If you want something on DJ you won’t get any better value that Sun here….

I noticed on the Irish Open that BetMcLean have copied betstars style bog offer so I’ll keep an eye there too.

I can see some good value forming already and as the exchange prices get tighter over the week I’m hoping some more obvious value emerges. I have an eye on sky betstars and sun for the most part. Plus some bookies still doing 1/4 odds (ladbrokes, betstars, and Stan James) which throws up the odd surprise ew arb.

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FoG_BLoG
61

July 17, 2017 at 3:43 pm

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Chris 24 July 18, 2017 at 9:16 pm

So I see lots of excitement but no one giving any tips. Has anyone actually placed a bet yet or waiting until odds tighten? (if they do)

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FoG_BLoG 61 July 18, 2017 at 9:44 pm

My tip is Sky. Lay off on the 10 place market for a bunch of ew arbs. There is an arb on most of the top 10 and looks even better value down the field like Day and Casey who are laying on top 10 at about 5.0 but getting the place part on sky for about 7.6.

I’m restricted on sky so I have done a bunch of max stake ew bets on about 10 golfers.

Also ladbrokes works out well as few bookies are doing 1/4 odds which helps either the arbs. Also restricted on ladbrokes so done max stake value bets on Scott, Koepka and Garcia where they were best price and the 1/4 terms meant the place part was arbing…

Still want to get something on the McLean offer, and I’m thinking Spieth. He is 4/1 to miss the cut which means about 20% chance of cash back for missing the cut and his odds are quite tight on the exchange – so it’s probably worth the QL, plus get a chance to hit the extra places with him there too.

Also want to get on the betstars BOG offer but none of their prices are standing out for me yet…

Also got some small QL on extra places on paddy and sun. It’s like a case of starting at the top of oddschecker and going through the best prices and you’ll find value somewhere for all the golfers. I imagine matchedem somewhere out there is having a field day!

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Tornado 2 July 18, 2017 at 9:44 pm

Thanks for the responses, hopefully will be OK then. Out of interest I just checked my gubbing email from SKY (almost a year ago) and it states the same, as in won’t be entitled to BOG. I definitely get BOG with them, use them almost every day for a mixture of ARB’s and ‘trading’ and often get BOG.
Not sure how I’m not heavily stake restricted by now, sometimes can only get £50 to £70 on but others up to £300 or so (all horses). Didn’t use the account for ages but doing quite nicely from it now.

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Adio 5 July 18, 2017 at 11:41 pm

I don’t understand these extra place offers. Do we lay the “Top 5 Finish” on the exchange?

Fog Blog, I don’t see those odds on the exchange…For example, to lay Casey or Day for “Top 5 finish” the current odds are 11.5, so much higher than on Sky. Or are you looking at some other market?

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ste 0 July 18, 2017 at 11:51 pm

The Betfair exchange has the top 8 market which is giving good odds vs the Sky top 10 offer. I see favourable bets there but get hammered on the qualifying loss on the outright win market, either on Betfair or smarkets.

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feltt1p 7 July 19, 2017 at 12:30 am

Not enough liquidity for people to be giving out tips right now I’m afraid. Every man for himself.

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betman 41 July 19, 2017 at 11:15 am

Dustin small arb plus extra place – Fred

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bbobb 24 July 19, 2017 at 11:20 am

I think I will try the Betstars BOG offer and a couple of FB offers.

I just can’t see much value in the extra place offers right now…. every bookie is offering the just about the same odds on everyone. (I’m gubbed at Sky but their odds are so bad that only one that look’s worthwhile is Adam Scott)

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FoG_BLoG 61 July 19, 2017 at 11:43 am

But bbobb there is definite value on the Sky offer, even at the prices. Betfair have a 10 ew market. Most of the sky prices are small arbs.

Spieth 15/14
Fowler 15/14
Johnson 15/15
Rahm 17/16.5
Garcia 17/15
Rose 19/18

And like you said

Scott 29/23

And even further down
Casey 34/29.

There is a lot of value there, maybe it will get eaten up with commission etc but its definitely worth considering and monitoring in my opinion. I’ve scattered a bunch of small bets on the ones that look the best value, I’ll be unlucky not to hit a few places or even the winner.

BetMcLean prices took a bad turn last night Spieth cut from 16/1 to 12/1! So I’ve gone for Rahm instead to miss the cut, pretty big QL but also get the shot at the extra place, so I think worth it. They refused my 25 ew stake though and reoffered 10ew instead. Either they are taking a hammering on this offer (which is pretty good) or else they are getting suspicious of my acocunt.

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bbobb 24 July 19, 2017 at 12:31 pm

The most I can get on Adam Scotton at Sky is 1.61

The Dabblebet offer must be good value at a QL of about £1 for each of the top players. I would hope for £5-£6 in FBs back from each of them if the weather stays ok.

Betstars I think is the best offer around…. I’m going for bet and lay 2/3 on a few of the top players. Also, as you are only backing the winner, not having to lay a load of places is easier on the exchange account.

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ste 0 July 19, 2017 at 12:35 pm

Is there any way to take advantage of the good sky place odds without having to lay the winner market also? Any value seems to get eaten by the losses on the win market.

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aNtis0ciaL 15 July 19, 2017 at 12:50 pm

Fog – The BetFair 10ew market, how does that work?

I did a 25 ew Bet with Sky, Laid the win Part on Smarkets and the EW part on the top ten finish – (hope this was right) for small guaranteed profit.

How would you do it with the 10EW market – could you give an example please?

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feltt1p 7 July 19, 2017 at 12:54 pm

ste, no just suck it up.

Hoffman 126, lay at 240 and 13.5 for 18% arb. (£25ew = £9 profit)
Kuchar 51, lay at 75 and 6.6 for 13% arb.

etc etc, lots to choose from.

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Woo1y 2 July 19, 2017 at 1:11 pm

Am I missing something here or is it just as easy as laying the 10 EW market on Betfair? e.g. £2 EW on sky on sergio garcia at 17, Lay £2.05 EW on betfair 10 place market and then if it doesn’t place you get back your stake?

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lewi6079 4 July 19, 2017 at 1:12 pm

Betfred have an 8 place market (not shown on oddschecker) which is at 1/4 odds. Scott and Leishman were low QL for the extra place not so long ago.

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