The Open Offers

Ppl are starting to get giddy about the open. Couple of posts already.

Betstars are doing their usual bog offer and their free bets for eagles. Both worth while.

Sky are gone TEN places which I think is a great sign. I’m enjoying this little battle that the bookies have going to see who can offer the most places. With the ten places there is marginally value on pretty much all the top ten each way (except Dustin who they have quoted terrible odds for as have most).

The surprise package is Sun here with actual decent odds. 16/1 on Dustin for example where some other good bookies are as low as 12/1. With 7 places too on Sun I think it isn’t bad value for an extra place shot. Sun are best price on the top 20. If you want something on DJ you won’t get any better value that Sun here….

I noticed on the Irish Open that BetMcLean have copied betstars style bog offer so I’ll keep an eye there too.

I can see some good value forming already and as the exchange prices get tighter over the week I’m hoping some more obvious value emerges. I have an eye on sky betstars and sun for the most part. Plus some bookies still doing 1/4 odds (ladbrokes, betstars, and Stan James) which throws up the odd surprise ew arb.

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FoG_BLoG
61

July 17, 2017 at 3:43 pm

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bbobb 24 July 19, 2017 at 1:13 pm

You need to tie up a pretty big bankroll to do all these ew offers.

I have about £3k to work with and it’s just not worthwhile for me. Once I’d placed my bets I’d need to pretty much stop everything else until the middle of next week. You get the winner in the wrong place and it could be nearer the end of next week before you get your money back where you want it.

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feltt1p 7 July 19, 2017 at 1:15 pm

antisocial, simple back and lay. Open up your trickybet qualifying bet calculator and add in sky odds (So 29 for Scott) and lay odds on Betfair + 5% commission. Bam.

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aNtis0ciaL 15 July 19, 2017 at 1:23 pm

Thanks Felt, I just can’t get my head around it. My usual way to lay an ew bet is to lay both the win section and the ew section separately.

So lets say for arguments sake Adam Scott 29 on Sky Bet 24 on the 10ew Betfair Exchange market.

If I was to go 25ew on Sky would I then use 50 as the back stake on the calculator odds 29/24 commission 5%?

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feltt1p 7 July 19, 2017 at 1:27 pm

Nope, just 25. Betfair will work out how much to payout if he wins or just places.

Saying that though, generally laying the win and place separate gets you better odds, just eating more commission.

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FoG_BLoG 61 July 19, 2017 at 2:13 pm

I’ll be happy if they finish 1-10

1. Spieth
2. Rahm
3. Garcia
4. Scott
5. Koepka
6. McIlroy
7. Fowler
8. Fleetwood
9. Noren
10. Leishman

Or there abouts. If Spieth has a bad first or 2nd round and drifts that’s okay. And if Rahm is cut then I won’t mind too much either and then they can stick D. Johnson up 2nd instead and I’ll be almost as happy.

I have 12 other selections that can step in to the places if any of the above have a bad week and it’ll do almost as good..

Now to look at the three balls and eagles.

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SJ 0 July 19, 2017 at 2:17 pm

What’s you total QL for these (if you dont mind me asking). Or are they the Skybet 10 and BF lay 10 strategy?

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feltt1p 7 July 19, 2017 at 2:26 pm

Looks like Sky 10 lay 10 underlay to me? Good strategy, I’ve just taken the arb cash ;)

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FoG_BLoG 61 July 19, 2017 at 2:31 pm

Its just a mixture of things SJ. Money back offers and enhanced ew terms and BOG. Some I haven’t layed because I am stake restricted and just taking as a value bet. I am not going to back and lay a £2 bet. But if I do enough of them the value adds up. And if I do enough of them I’m bound to hit with one (almost like dutching, but much less scientific).

Its a bit of fun for me.

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bbobb 24 July 19, 2017 at 2:45 pm

Hills are now advertising money back if you miss the cut.

1/5 Odds top 7 for EW

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FoG_BLoG 61 July 19, 2017 at 2:49 pm

I think money back miss the cut is a good offer. Even the top of the field are 4/1 to miss the cut which gives an estimate of 20% to hit a refund.

BetMcLean have the same but looking at their odds this morning there was nothing that I liked. Will Hill looks slightly better – but they gubbed me a long time ago.

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orlandosteve 2 July 19, 2017 at 3:16 pm

Dustin 18/1 at Hills/Fred/sun/blacktype. Arb on win and place, play it how you wish.

Betfair and Boyle are the only bookies I’m aware of that won’t pay extra places to gubbed accounts, don’t shoot me if I’m wrong. I am certain that sky will though.

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Tornado 2 July 19, 2017 at 4:29 pm

@orlandosteve you may be right on Boyle’s, I just remembered I made a note of bookies that don’t pay extra places on my spread sheet. This would have been from forum posts a while back but I have Boyles and RaceBets that don’t pay.
Again, I could have wrong info or things could have changed……

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lewi6079 4 July 19, 2017 at 4:57 pm

@FoG_BLoG You might want to be a bit careful with your Betmclean account – I was restricted on what I could get on the Open today and got a gubbing email this afternoon…

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feltt1p 7 July 19, 2017 at 7:17 pm

Bill Haas @ Sky – 126/160/13 for a glorious 35% arb.

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setara 8 July 19, 2017 at 7:38 pm

What does the 13 stand for? He’s 36 5 place play?

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