The Open Offers

Ppl are starting to get giddy about the open. Couple of posts already.

Betstars are doing their usual bog offer and their free bets for eagles. Both worth while.

Sky are gone TEN places which I think is a great sign. I’m enjoying this little battle that the bookies have going to see who can offer the most places. With the ten places there is marginally value on pretty much all the top ten each way (except Dustin who they have quoted terrible odds for as have most).

The surprise package is Sun here with actual decent odds. 16/1 on Dustin for example where some other good bookies are as low as 12/1. With 7 places too on Sun I think it isn’t bad value for an extra place shot. Sun are best price on the top 20. If you want something on DJ you won’t get any better value that Sun here….

I noticed on the Irish Open that BetMcLean have copied betstars style bog offer so I’ll keep an eye there too.

I can see some good value forming already and as the exchange prices get tighter over the week I’m hoping some more obvious value emerges. I have an eye on sky betstars and sun for the most part. Plus some bookies still doing 1/4 odds (ladbrokes, betstars, and Stan James) which throws up the odd surprise ew arb.

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FoG_BLoG
61

July 17, 2017 at 3:43 pm

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feltt1p 7 July 19, 2017 at 7:43 pm

10 places lay on Betfair. Same as Sky so an arb not extra places.

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feltt1p 7 July 19, 2017 at 7:43 pm

double post

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betman 41 July 19, 2017 at 8:08 pm

Oddsmonkey makes this so much easier. Got a range of golfers for the 6th place with small qls, and even profits on some.
Gone for 3 decent golfers on sky where only laid the win part off

Spieth was 17/17.5 on he betstars offer earlier but been cut now before I got on.

Tied up all my exchange plus some of my banked profits, but busy this week and in between 2 weeks away so kind works.

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MbPunter 24 July 19, 2017 at 8:15 pm

Kyle Stanley another decent one at sky at big odds. 201.0/240. Place 41/34 in the 5tp. Or can lay alot shorter in the the 10tp.

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Chris 24 July 19, 2017 at 8:37 pm

I fail to see the value in the majority of these offers. Ok so there are some place arbs at Sky but realistically £5-6 here and there with all the money tied up for 4 days?

Surely better to just punt a bit on the exchanges.

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betman 41 July 19, 2017 at 8:44 pm

Depends on the opportunity cost of the money.
For me the chance of £200-£500 pretty much risk free is better than it sat in the exchange doing nothing. And once you have that one big win bet on anything extra (like my lay the win only sky bets) doesn’t eat into any more lay capital

However if I knew I had lots free time I’d keep at least some exchange cash for other stuff

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feltt1p 7 July 19, 2017 at 9:07 pm

Currently sitting at £101 profit with a nice amount of chances at extra places. Not sure what you’re up to Chris that you’re saving your float for but I think it’s worthwhile?

4 players at 6/7/8 places
2 players at 7 place
7 players at 6 place

Plus a few underlay’s at Sky extra places, and Betstars BOG and multiple ‘miss the cut’ fb and dabblebet’s £1 for a birdie.

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MbPunter 24 July 19, 2017 at 9:31 pm

If you’re going to punt abit, still likely to find better value via the bookies. Unless you’re punting win only.

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lewi6079 4 July 19, 2017 at 10:39 pm

Currently betstars has Stenson at 34.0/36.0 & 9.25/8.4 for a risk free shot at 6th.

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lewi6079 4 July 19, 2017 at 10:41 pm

Question re. 3 ball offer at betstars – what do you consider an acceptable QL on this offer?

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FoG_BLoG 61 July 19, 2017 at 10:41 pm

Chris, do you have a strategy for punting on the exchange? Taking back value on the place markets that the matched bettors are blindly pumping their money into?

Or…

The market can change very quickly in golf if someone shoots into the rough. If you’re clued up and have a good live feed maybe you can get on the swings ahead of the masses and back high and lay low seconds later after the world catches up?

I like the big golf tournaments gives lots of value across the board with so many bookies doing offers and extra places. I think sometimes we should allow ourselves punt on these tournaments, because Chris is right, a lot of us don’t have thousands to cover the liabilities. I have 20+ golfers all showing as good value according to the “true” exchange odds. If I get a few in the top ten then I’ll prolly break about even. If I hit the winner I’ll probably do quite well. If I get nothing then I’ll have lost a little of this months profit.

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FoG_BLoG 61 July 19, 2017 at 10:49 pm

Lewi, there are stats on the PGA website. Looks like most pros hit an eagle once every 10 rounds. I don’t know much about the course and if there are a lot of easy holes but I would say a €1 QL would be about okay to hit a €20 free bet.

But since I don’t know much about golf and which golfers suit which courses I try and err on the side of caution. I’ve only gone for two golfers, one was a zero QL and the other I know is quite good so I was happy to take the €1 QL….

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lewi6079 4 July 20, 2017 at 12:03 am

Thanks Fog. Took An, Kuchar and Schwartzman for sub £1 QL’s. Can’t say I know much about golf either!

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MbPunter 24 July 20, 2017 at 12:38 am

Usually can get some cheap QLs. But looking at the course guide eagles might be fairly scarce. Ony 2 par 5s the 15th and 17th, only one eagle on the 15th the last time it was held here in 2008. So could be looking at the 17th as the best bet. Will get a better idea tomorrow i guess.

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bbobb 24 July 20, 2017 at 11:51 am

Speith currently down to 7-1 after a couple of holes on the exchanges.

Complete madness by the madness by the markets considering he will have the worse of the weather to play in today and tomorrow.

It’s going to clear up today and the wind is forecast to drop.

Tomorrow it’s forecast to start raining just before he tees off and the wind is to pick up as the day goes on.

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