ACCA (again sorry!)
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Hi Guys,
First post in a while!Thought it was time I started on the Acca’s. I feel the best method for me personally is the Lay all at the start method, I presume the no lay method is probably more beneficial, however guess i’m just a wimp!
Result Bookmaker Exchange Your Profit
All win (24%) £68 -£40 £28
1 lose (40%) -£5 -£7.50 -£12.50
2 lose (26%) -£25 £25 £0
3 lose (9%) -£25 £57.50 £32.50
4 lose (1%) -£25 £90 £65
All lose (0.1%) -£25 £122.50 £97.50I found the above online, this is based off a £25 stake and back and lay odds of 1.3/1.32. I assume this is correct?
Any tips would be appreciated!
Thanks+0February 16, 2017 at 12:58 pm
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Intuitively your probability numbers look better than mine. I have had another look at them and I get:
Both win 30.8%, One loss 44.5% and both lose 24.7% but I suspect I am still making a mistake can you explain how you got your figures.
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Eskander would be interesting to see what your profit would have been if you had cashed out.
I was always under the impression the cash out is very poor value for punters, hence why the bookies offer it.
Thats why we always lay the final legs and not cash out as its better value, so interesting to hear that this was better.
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Hey Ryan,
I’m not sure what the profit would have been if I’d have cashed out. Apologies if I confused matters there, I didn’t even think to check it at the time, just laid to lock in a profit. Was only after the Acca won that I thought that I could have cashed out, by which point it was too late to see what the payout would have been, sounds like it was more than likely better for me to lay though!
@Dave – Interestingly I get each of your numbers in my calc, just not as the final numbers (except the probability of both winning!) I’d also rounded my figures in the earlier post, but will leave to 1 d.p here. Worth pointing out that I totally winged my calculations….I broke it down into 4 potential outcomes first. Both win, both lose, 4 wins but 5 loses, 4 loses but 5 wins.
Each leg had a probability of winning of 55.6% (1 / 1.8). Chance of both winning would be 55.6% x 55.6% which is the 31.8% that we both came out with.
Probability of a leg losing would then be 44.4% (1 – 55.6%), so chance of both losing would have been 44.4% x 44.4%, which gives 19.8%
Probability of 4 winning and 5 losing I got as 24.7% (55.6% x 44.4%). This is the same probability of 4 losing and 5 winning, so I added the two possible outcomes together to get the probability of 1 leg losing which would be 49.4%
Now, I’m not sure if my methodology is right or not, I kinda just made it up as I went along to be honest as haven’t had chance to check through this thread of the other suggestion that you made to check the maths!
I just have a very simplistic view with numbers, there are only 4 things you can do with them at the end of the day: Add, Subtract, Multiply, Divide. I went for a combination of them until I came out with something that looked semi-sensible!
+0@RyanB, whenever I have looked in the past, cashing out was always by far the worst option when I did the EV calculations, but this was based on all the first four legs having already won. That’s the only time I consider laying the last leg, most of the time I do what Foggy does and don’t bother laying at all. I don’t know if things might be different if you look at cashing out after three legs have won. My guess would be like yours, that cashing out would still be the least profitable thing to do. The bookies are not going to introduce something that will cost them money, they like to bring out stuff that cons the unwary into thinking they are getting a good deal, In reality it takes even more money off people, but lots wont realise it.
@Eskander thanks for that excellent explanation, it seems like a sensible way to work out the probabilities. I have an old maths book knocking around the house somewhere that has some info on probabilities. If I can find it I will see if it has anything in it on problems such as this one, and write up if it suggests something different to what you have written.+0@eskander, noticed something that you posted yesterday that I am not sure about but forgot all about it until just now. Are you sure your overall profit was £27?
When I use Matts normal qualifying bet calculator I get a profit figure of £20.22 and if I use his risk free calculator (this is the one I usually use if I lay off the last leg) I get a profit figure of £22.02.
I think you have probably used the risk free method but have failed to deduct your stake from the final profit figure, however if you have found another way of doing it, it would be great to see how its done.
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Hey Dave,
Yes, there were quite a few more newbie-isms which I’d kept quiet about…! Was going to mention them earlier but didn’t want to confuse matters even more (which it sounds like I’ve already done!)
When I stated the returns from the acca winning it was the number quoted from Oddsmonkey from when I’d built it, which I didn’t realise had already deducted the stake from the winnings. Also the odds fluctuated slightly when I actually placed it, so total winnings from Coral was £49.97 minus the £5 stake to leave £44.97 potential profit.
Also when I went to lay the final leg the lay odds had actually dropped to 1.75. I was out and about at the time and not that comfortable trying to work out the calculators and what I was trying to do on my phone, so just laid an arbitrary £24 thinking that the liability would be £18 giving £27 profit if the Acca won and £24 (less commission) plus £4 from free bet acca insurance if it didn’t. Not optimal, but for the sake of £1 in the EVs potential outcomes I was happy to take it to quickly minimise the risk of losing £1 if the acca didn’t win!
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I have a free £10 ACCA bet with BetVictor. How on earth do I guarantee profit from it?
P.S. I’m an ACCA newbie. Thanks
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Personally if you’re an acca newbie i say you should punt it…big possible payday. Rather than risk laying incorrectly and losing quite alot of money.
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I would definitely punt it.
To lay it off correctly you will have to lay potentially 5 legs as well as figuring out all the calculations.
There is a point where the amount of effort is not worth the reward.
All that to extract maybe £8 from a £10 FB.
When punting you are looking still to have legs with close matches versus the exchange. This will mean that you are getting good value. And also looking for the overall odds of the acca to be long enough, say 7/1 to 10/1 for the overall total odds. Too short and your not getting good long term value, too long and since your punting it then its too unlikely to ever win.
+0Hills have changed their terms and conditions. Maximum free bet per day is £20.00. Also now all odds have to be (1/5) or higher. Not like before on certain leagues only.
+04 days to use the freebet too
This was odd as they had 2 different versions of the revised t&c floating around this week, neither being the final one!
Big drop 50 to 20 along with the min odds shift. Gonna take expected value from £12+ a lot of the time to £4 or less+0
Huge blow for me that.
Wills ACCA was a good earner for me being able to get on the low low odds and close matches.
And only £20 now? Shame!
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ffs. Was looking forward to this new season, hopefully other bookies don’t follow suit and others add insurance to their promos.
+0And Fred have just dropped theirs from £25 to £10 looks like they are all going to follow suit… too many jumping on the bandwagon last season with acca software etc, ah well was good while it lasted.
+0Looks like Freds’ minimum odds have changed too from 1/5 to 1/3.
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