ACCA (again sorry!)

Hi Guys,
First post in a while!

Thought it was time I started on the Acca’s. I feel the best method for me personally is the Lay all at the start method, I presume the no lay method is probably more beneficial, however guess i’m just a wimp!

Result Bookmaker Exchange Your Profit
All win (24%) £68 -£40 £28
1 lose (40%) -£5 -£7.50 -£12.50
2 lose (26%) -£25 £25 £0
3 lose (9%) -£25 £57.50 £32.50
4 lose (1%) -£25 £90 £65
All lose (0.1%) -£25 £122.50 £97.50

I found the above online, this is based off a £25 stake and back and lay odds of 1.3/1.32. I assume this is correct?

Any tips would be appreciated!
Thanks

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RyanB
11

February 16, 2017 at 12:58 pm

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jamieek 0 February 25, 2017 at 4:52 am

Fog how you getting 9 accumulators on sporting in one weekend? Are they not restricted to one free bet?

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jamieek 0 February 25, 2017 at 5:14 am

Out my last 12 accumulators I’ve got all 5 legs right six times , the free bet 5 times and only one where I got just 3 out 5. . I do pick my bets carefully. I’m just gutted I’ve been doing lay bets to lower variance on 2 of the legs each time. Tottenham cost me the other night about £60 ridiculous the amount of misfortune in that game an own goal a needless red card and then throwing a 2-1 lead. Anyway that’s me. Good luck for the weekend

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Dave_Jones 7 February 25, 2017 at 6:13 pm

@jamieek, somewhere in this thread Fog explained this. He said that some of the accas may already be dead before the last game on say Sat or Sun therefore allowing you to do another one on that day. He also said as its unlikely to hit two refunds on the same day you could take the risk and do both of them at that time.

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FoG_BLoG 47 February 25, 2017 at 6:36 pm

Sporting give up to 4 free bets. Or did the last time I checked the terms!

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FoG_BLoG 47 February 25, 2017 at 6:39 pm

”
Any number of qualifying multiples bets can be placed in any 24 hour period (calendar day) but a maximum of four £25 free bets can be earned in that period.
”

And as Dave said I can put 5 bets on one day as its very unlikely to hit a free bet on more than 4. If there is enough variety I will have more than 5 on.

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J 0 February 26, 2017 at 9:06 am

I’m after a bit of advice please. My first attempts at accas and I went for the lay at start method. I’ve done 2 and for both of them the legs from yesterday won. Knowing that 2 of the legs are today I didn’t lay them yesterday. Another thing which is confusing it is that the legs left today can be laid sequentially. What’s the best thing to do?

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FoG_BLoG 47 February 26, 2017 at 9:19 am

It’s up to you J.

You can lock in profit now as the remaining legs are sequential but I would probably stick with your lay at start and just lay as you planned. This will probably keep things simpler as you are just starting.

The only thing that might convince you to lay sequentially is that since two legs already won you’re getting close to your worst case scenario for lay all up front of just one leg losing. Since two legs already won then there is probably quite a bit of value to be extracted by laying sequentially.

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FoG_BLoG 47 February 26, 2017 at 9:25 am

You can also look at the cash out value offered by your bookie and compare to the value of the sequential lays and decide if the inconvenience and time taken to lay the accas is worth the difference. This might be an option if you’re going to be out all day and don’t want to risk missing a lay.

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J 0 February 26, 2017 at 9:32 am

Not quite following you fog but thanks for trying.

3 legs actually won yesterday and 2 left today. I’m guessing by what you’re saying, I should maybe lay sequentially but I’m not sure how I would calculate stakes

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FoG_BLoG 47 February 26, 2017 at 9:37 am

Whats the potential payout ? Whats the stake? And whats the odds of the last two legs?

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McGenius 0 February 26, 2017 at 10:50 am

Hi J,

I am in the same boat as you today. 3 legs won yesterday that I’d laid off. 2 more legs today starting at different times and I’m planning on sequentially laying these and factoring in the value of the FB to lock in profit. As per FoG if you let us know the details I can probably do the sums to give you options.

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J 0 February 26, 2017 at 11:12 am

Hi,

Potential payout of £185 and £235 from £50 stake. Odds of last two matches on the first acca are 1.44 and 1.25.

Odds on second acca 1.47 and 1.23.

Thanks

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FoG_BLoG 47 February 26, 2017 at 12:05 pm

What are the lays on those? 1.44/?? and 1.25/?? and for the second acca.

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J 0 February 26, 2017 at 12:09 pm

Current lay odds on the first one: 1.45 and 1.25.

Second one: 1.55 and 1.25

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FoG_BLoG 47 February 26, 2017 at 12:21 pm

Acca 1:

Leg 1 Lay Stake = 86.47, Liability = 38.91.

Leg 2 if team wins and acca still alive Lay Stake = 117.89, Liabiliy = 29.37
Leg 2 if team loses and only going for free bet now Lay Stake = 32.52, Liability = 8.13.

Both legs win you are down 68.39 in liability but up 135 on bookie win. So 66.61 profit (minus whatever you lost yesterday on your lays).

Both legs lose then you lost 50 at bookie but up your lay stakes of 86.47 + 32.52 minus comm which comes to 116.61. So 66.61 profit ( minus whatever you lost yesterday on your lays).

First leg wins and second leg loses then you are up 50 free bet at booke (~= 40). Down the liability for first lay (38.91) and up the stake for second lay (117.89) minus comm. Also down the original bookie stake is 40 +115.53- 38.91 – 50 = 66.62.

And so on …..

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