Betfair Each Way edge
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So I just noticed this gizmo.
On betfair when you are placing an each way bet you can adjust the terms if you want.
For example I can bet on Top Tug in Catterick 14:20 today odds 3.25. Standard place terms are 1/5 odds, 3 places.
This is almost value as you’re getting odds 3.25/1.45 for the win/place(3) on the bookie and the lays are at 3.7/1.27 on the exchange.
BUT
If I toggle the Each Way Edge widget to only pay two places then this will increase the odds to 4.33! Giving 4.33/1.67 for the win/place(2), where the lays are 3.7/1.59 (2 to place). Which is better value.
Maybe its something someone wants to look into, but at least at first glance on this example looks like you can stretch the value you get e/w arbing by using the edge.
Anyone use this feature regularly?
+0January 12, 2017 at 11:58 am
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Chris, are you betting early prices then waiting till later to lay? I bet Lightoller at around 1pm at 12.0 when it was laying 13.0 (it was almost top price on Oddschecker at that time)
If people are gambing on prices coming down then that’s fair enough… I also backed the non-runner and was looking at a loss on it until it was withdrawn as I hadn’t laid at the same time and it had began to drift.
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Even better, the 19.10 race at Cork.
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Yep today I took what I knew was a great price on Lightoller around 11am and layed a few hours later.
+0Have betfair had a 5 place race since this discovery? Potentially some monster prices when they do..
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Cheers Chris 100 quid up for me as got restrictions on betfair
Tip as well as the 710 at Cork the 745 too…im off to sort a few doggy errands before those 2 tasty ones
+0Ok, thanks. I wasn’t doubting you… I was just wondering as I had been watching this race most of the day.
As you weren’t the only one claiming to be on Lightoller I was wondering if I was missing something obvious. Maybe matchdem just happened to spot the same value as you at the same time…he couldn’t possibly be lying.
+0For what its worth I had 2 horses on the 15:50 one being Lightoller at odds of 16/11 – overlaid for a profit which meant had it come 1st would have lost £15.
I am prepared for the worst knowing that even with the above odds there is long term value in these.
Would be really nice if more bookies were to offer this edge facility!
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The industry standard 1/5 odds in general wont be accurate at all. I certainly wouldn’t recommend using it to estimate EV. Most cases (except bad ew races) it will give a much lower odds than is fair. Its been tried and tested alright, and the bookie’s are quite happily making money by offering those term. By underestimating the fair odds for the place they are making money as they dont have to payout as much as is fair when a horse places.
Just be careful tennispunter because if you over estimate the chance of second you might be jumping in on a bunch of bets that you calculate as positive EV but are in fact going to lose you money long term.
+0Fog-Blog – surely by using the industry standard as a start point means that already I am underestimating the chance of a 2nd place. Add to that my adjustment which I have tweaked following your previous valid feedback, which further reduces the odds a horse getting 2nd place, then I think I am relatively safe long term.
Aberdeen – we are laying the win part on Smarkets which is far better value in terms of commission. Don’t lay them off on Betfair – you will end up getting restricted very quickly.
+0Sorry Fog-Blog ignore my previous comment re the industry standard – I get where you are coming from and will revisit my numbers – cheers!
+0Wouldn’t it be easier to just estimate from the exchange place odds? Take off the win percentage and then divide the other 3 places to at least give you a decent rough idea of 2nd.
Tennispunter, referring to the example FoG mentioned of yourse earlier, when you had win 9% and 2nd 21%. Are you sure the 21% wasn’t for Top 2. Rather than exactly 2nd? Seems way off otherwise.
+0MbPunter – In the quoted example its evident that the 2nd place odds were inflated.
I am trying to have an equation that’s easy to do without having to worry about looking at and recording lots of additional odds etc hence using the win lay odds with some additional automated tweaks.
Looks like its back to the drawing board!
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I think you’re slipping in to overanalysis here. Why not just find the best priced horses at Betfair, check the lay odds are ok then hope it comes second?
+0Yes that’s very possible.
Its just that I had wanted mathematically to prove a point but at the same time keep things very simple.
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