Betfair Each Way edge
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So I just noticed this gizmo.
On betfair when you are placing an each way bet you can adjust the terms if you want.
For example I can bet on Top Tug in Catterick 14:20 today odds 3.25. Standard place terms are 1/5 odds, 3 places.
This is almost value as you’re getting odds 3.25/1.45 for the win/place(3) on the bookie and the lays are at 3.7/1.27 on the exchange.
BUT
If I toggle the Each Way Edge widget to only pay two places then this will increase the odds to 4.33! Giving 4.33/1.67 for the win/place(2), where the lays are 3.7/1.59 (2 to place). Which is better value.
Maybe its something someone wants to look into, but at least at first glance on this example looks like you can stretch the value you get e/w arbing by using the edge.
Anyone use this feature regularly?
+0January 12, 2017 at 11:58 am
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Sshhhh. Don’t tell anybody but there are a couple of big handicap races (1/4, 1-2-3-4) at fairy house again tomorrow.
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Managed to hit second in the Irish National today.. Even better is that I haven’t picked a winner yet so my Betfair Sportsbook is considerably down!
It’s annoying that I didn’t stumble on this myself… I was playing around with edge for the Grand National in reducing the places from 5 to 4 (didn’t think about trying 2!)..
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Something for someone to look into.
I had ew edge -2 for example with Ice Cold Soul @ 26.0 in the 16.40 at fairyhouse, 16 runners.
There has been a withdrawal and so standard terms are now 3 places, so -2 ew edge is now win only. The great thing is that I keep the 26.0 (a significant boost on the normal odds). It’s laying at 18.5 so a good arb there. I might have a rule 4 but probably not as most of the horses in the race were 14/1+. Even with a rule 4 though it’s good odds.
Anyway the idea is to apply edge on 16 horse races and/or 8 horse races and get a big boost on win odds and hope for a non runner for a big arb when your bet becomes win only at the enhanced odds…
So it opens that question of how likely there is to be non runners. Could offer some contingency too for those ew arbing, you could also do an ew edge. If a non runner you lose out value on the ew arb but gain on the ew edge….
If you could predict non runners you can make arbs pretty easily.
+0Runners with other entries, sporting life racecard summaries will often say these.
Sudden changes in ground or forecast.
Or to keep the conspiracy theorists happy if there is a potential Eway arb the bookies will withdraw one ;-)
+0Just noticed this when i went to check bets from this morning. Makes it better than it already was.
Landed Bless the Wings yesterday but looks like i’ve paid the price for it. Can’t get much more than fivers ew on now!
Still should be able to tick over an ok return even with small stakes, few bets a race.+0
Yes I’m just doing small bets and staying under the radar for now.
No rule 4 deduction there on Thomas Hobson so got 25/1 on that. Nicely done. His sp was 7/1 haha.
For a moment though on the bet slip it had 5p rule 4 indicated. Maybe they waived it.
+0Not sure it would work on the 8 runners, the enhance price is never high enough
Be interesting mbpunter what your pre restriction staking was
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Nothing excessive tbh, staking mainly 50 or 75 ew. Nothing out of turn with usual betting patterns.
I hit 2nds for 25ew and 50ew.
But had a 1st with £75 ew which ‘won’ a chunk on sportsbook.
I also had a decent win on the special that was posted on other betfair thread. So maybe a culmination of all that rather than because i was taking advantage of the loophole.I’ll still keep having a go with fivers ew though, because the long term ROI looks good. Take on FOGs volume approach!
+0Has anyone tried to work out the formula they are using to calculate the Edge prices?
It appears there is some uneven rounding going on as the price increase seem to range between 18 and 33% (from 3 places to 2).
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17.05 at Ripon.
No liquidity atm.+0Crispy. How you playing the 17:05 at rippon. Never tried this before. Are you shortening the odds to 3 or 2 places?
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The idea is that you shorten to 2 places and only lay the win.
FOG explains it well, earlier on in the thread..
You can normally get a few at a qualifying profit. I’d start looking just after 4.+0Yup, makes sense now. Basically an attempted risk free place offer.
+0Did anyone find anything decent in this race?
When I was looking at about 4:50 the odds were so far apart that you would have to reduce to 2 places to get an even match on the win.
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Intense Romance 17.0/11.0
Scofflaw 9.5/6.6
Right action 21/13.5
Dandy highway man 12/8.2I took a qualifying loss in theory on all of them.
I checked at different times and the night before. Wasn’t much liquidity night before but would be enough to match my small stakes. And then got lucky on scofflaw as he was shortening on exchange just as I was watching.
I like to check early as possible for example the Newbury 16:10 race today was a 17 horse race yesterday so I got a few at two places, it’s now a 15 horse race so I’m win only on about double odds on one and good odds on the fav and the other.
I know the liquidity is bad the night before. But the value in this edge is pretty big so even if you don’t match some and end up losing it will balance out. I’m playing it low risk by covering many horses for low stakes.
To be honest I’m punting €2 ew stakes so I’m staying under the radar and don’t need to be too fussed if I get one wrong. My theoretic profit on 70 horses so far based on lay prices is €78, my actual profit is €200. Sometimes you have to love variance! The theoretic profit is fairly reserved estimate, doesn’t take into account commission saved, true price between the spread between the back and lay prices and the big boost I have gotten on about 6 horses where the price goes to win only.
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