Betfair Each Way edge
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So I just noticed this gizmo.
On betfair when you are placing an each way bet you can adjust the terms if you want.
For example I can bet on Top Tug in Catterick 14:20 today odds 3.25. Standard place terms are 1/5 odds, 3 places.
This is almost value as you’re getting odds 3.25/1.45 for the win/place(3) on the bookie and the lays are at 3.7/1.27 on the exchange.
BUT
If I toggle the Each Way Edge widget to only pay two places then this will increase the odds to 4.33! Giving 4.33/1.67 for the win/place(2), where the lays are 3.7/1.59 (2 to place). Which is better value.
Maybe its something someone wants to look into, but at least at first glance on this example looks like you can stretch the value you get e/w arbing by using the edge.
Anyone use this feature regularly?
+0January 12, 2017 at 11:58 am
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Spot on.
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Fill your boots on the Scottish Grand National (Ayr 3.55). Some great prices right now.
+0Just want to ask a question that I have in relation to a live scenario iro the Scottish Grand National today.
I have backed a horse, £5 each way at odds of 19. If I lay the win at the current odds of 13 I will incur a loss of £0.78p unless the horse comes 2nd.
If however I increase the lay to say £11.00 that will give me:
A loss of £19.50 if horse wins
A profit of £28.28 if 2nd
A profit of £0.78 if 3rd or worse.
My question here for the long term is whether or not in the above example there is a positive EV. My gut tells me there is – the horse is more likely to come 2nd or worse as opposed to 1st – but it would be good to know the formula (I am sure there is one) for calculating the EV in these situations.
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EV
= probability horse 1st * -19.50
+ probability horse 2nd * 28.28
+ probability any other position * 0.78You can use the market price of the horse to estimate prob 1st. So if lay is at 13.0 so probability = 1/13.0.
There may be a market at bookies or exchange that we can use to figure out prob 2nd. Or make a crude guess, in a 30 horse race with no strong odds on fav then the prob of horse finishing in any of the top few positions is equal so use 1/13.0 again.
Then prob of any other position is 1 – prob 1st – prob 2nd.
Then you have all your numbers.
You will probably find that no matter how you proportion the lay that the long term EV is more or less equal. The only difference being commission and the less you lay in general the less value you give away. You’re just laying for insurance against spells of variance. So I like underlay methods. But it’s personal choice, if you don’t want a big QL for the other positions (85% of the time) then go your way. But also to point out no matter what you think long odds horses win every day so you will be hit by that big £19.50 QL regularly.
+0Betfair sportsbook should be good for some each way arbs on the national too with the longer odds horses. With 4 places I’ll probably try a couple them rather than hit 2nd
+0Thanks Fog_Blog – this is helpful and I agree the more you lay the more your profit is eroded by commission.
I also agree that long odds horses can and do win – don’t I know it from the lays that I have done in the past!
I shall soon have to make a decision as regards the amount I lay and I suspect I will risk a bit more on the assumption my horse will not win – time will tell.
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Scottish National – Southfield Royale at 12.0 enhances to 19.0.
Giving effective odds on the win of 12.25, currently laying at 12.0.A nice risk free shot at second.
+0Can someone check the maths;
Sugar baron edged -2 is 26. £5 e/w =
Bookie+156.20 if wins
+26.25 if places secondCurrent lay 16.
Lay stake calculated as 15.62 so lay stake 9.77.
If wins; +156.20 bookie, -146.55 exchange. Overall +9.65
If second + 26.20 bookie.+ 9.77 (-2% commission +9.57) overall +35.77
Unplaced; -10 bookie, + 9.57. Overal -0.43.Seems too good to be true? Are my maths correct in terms of calculating lay stake and lay figure etc?
+0jd – using your odds and back stakes the following positions arise (assumes a lay stake of £10.40)
Horse wins – win £0.25
Horse 2nd – win £36.44
Horse 3rd or worse – win £0.19
Hope this helps and not certain where you got a lay stake of £9.77
+0Your effective odds are returns divided by total stake. You’ve just done it for winnings.
So effective odds are 16.625. So you would lay £10.40 at 16. To leave a guaranteed profit of 20p regardless. Plus bonus if it comes 2nd.You’ve underlaid (inadvertently) so you would actually win more if the horse wins.
+0To help here is a link to a spreadsheet that I have built
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6gt5D_cEs4IZlpMYjhwZkZoZzg/view?usp=sharing
+0Cheers guys, my mistake is not adding the 1 to the 15.625 as I divided the overall returns of £156.25 (profit and this included the place part) so that’s where I’ve gone wrong!
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BEAUTIFUL. Cogry does the business. Only went in 25 ew though.
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Same here 25ew..
His odds rocketed in before the start.. I was trying to put an extra £50 ew on him but I was milliseconds too slow..
Still can’t complain..
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