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My theory beyond matched betting

  • Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

    The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

    For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

    Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

    As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

    Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

    +2
    beesty2016
    7
    June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm

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    deathstar 39 September 11, 2016 at 9:11 am

    Good shout beaker, however Five non runners in the 13:55 at Ffos Las! which may or may not be a good thing. deffo keep an eye on it

    Edit – don’t bother, bookies are paying 2 places now where exchanges will still be 3

    +0
    beakerh 3 September 11, 2016 at 9:18 am

    Doh! At the time of writing last post there was only 1 non runner. 4 dropped out in the space of half an hour just after 8am. Definitely highlights the danger of backing a horse too early! Still keeping an eye on the 1515 Bath, one horse has dropped out reducing it to 16 runners.

    +0
    Dave_Jones 12 September 11, 2016 at 9:35 am

    @beesty thanks for the update its good to hear that you are still making money from this strategy. Would any of the available exchange trading software be helpful to you, for your lay bets. I’m thinking of products for example from Bet Angel and Gruss software, or are the standard exchange interfaces fine for your purposes?

    +0
    beakerh 3 September 11, 2016 at 9:44 am

    1400 Curragh – Above The Rest. Back and lay for 8. Back place odds 2.75, currently 2.52 on Betfair. 18 runners on that one.

    +0
    beesty2016 7 September 11, 2016 at 9:50 am

    As I have had some positive support. I have just spent 5 minutes for people here:

    Today’s list some will be have question marks which means they are marginal but a non runner or the market could swing things in your favour.

    Chelmsford City

    1:45?
    2:20? (Slightly better prospect than the 1:45 as 9 runner instead of 10)

    Ffos Las

    1:55? (Even with 5 this may be a goer just lay on the 2 place market)
    3:00? (Favourite is short but no massive outsiders)

    Bath

    3:15 – Always around a 5-10% profit on the cards in the 16+ races per horse.

    Curragh

    2:00
    4:50 – (The 1/6 fav should make ew value on the 2nd and 3rd favs)
    5:55 – (Paying out 5 places on 365 which is what I use to find my shortlist)

    Listowel

    3:50
    5:35?

    This would be my list of races if I was getting on them today. I would then log in from say 1:15 onwards to see what value is around and pinpoint these races.

    Good luck for whoever has a go and hopefully some decent profits posted as the day goes on!

    +0
    beesty2016 7 September 11, 2016 at 9:54 am

    Dave_Jones

    I have looked into betangel in the past. However, one of the thrills I actually get is by calculating stuff very quickly and manually before the races go off. I’ve always loved mental maths and numbers. Whether this costs me a few quid currently I don’t know but I can understand people using software as it can become very fast paced.

    Also guys please don’t get on them too early I know it is tempting to lock in profits when you see them but these chances will be there later. A non runner or 2 will really screw you up and it is always possible up until an hour before the race!

    +0
    beakerh 3 September 11, 2016 at 10:05 am

    Cheers Beesty. Been looking at this for ages and today I will give it a go, even if it is only a few quid. From scrolling through Betfair you see a number of horses dropping out throughout the morning. If you do put bets on and there is a last minute drop out, reducing the number of places paid out, is it just a case of waiting and hoping it doesn’t finish in the wrong position (ie 3rd or 4th)?

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 60 September 11, 2016 at 10:09 am

    Thanks beesty, I think that I am finally on the same page as you. I’ve done a bit of analysis and it seems the best value at the moment are on the horses below – like nothing that says profit but I will see if I can get a close match on the win and then “hope” that the place odds come in strong just before the off…

    I am happy that the list that I came upon matches with the list of races that you picked out.

    curragh/14:00 Intisaab
    curragh/14:00 Above The Rest
    curragh/17:55 Elusive Heights
    curragh/17:55 Katiymann
    bath/15:15 Vincentti
    curragh/17:25 Medicine Jack
    chelmsford-city/14:20 Desert Fox
    curragh/14:00 Naggers
    listowel/15:50 Brogine
    chelmsford-city/14:20 Wind In Her Sails

    +0
    beesty2016 7 September 11, 2016 at 10:20 am

    Beakerh – There is a small bit of luck in that a 5/8/16 runner race one may not go in the stalls. In an 8 runner race if one does not go in then you do not want your horse to come 3rd/7. I don’t know how often this happens but I would say somewhere around 1 in 20 this happens. In all the time I have done it I think there has been 3 races where I have been in the dodgy situation and thankfully not had the dodgy place. Where it works brilliantly is if your on a 9/10 runner race and one doesn’t go. Pretty much every time this has happened the R4 if one applies has worked in my favour.

    What you do say Beaker is the only risk to the strategy and if I do get hit one day it’s just one I have got to take.

    +0
    beakerh 3 September 11, 2016 at 4:20 pm

    Well today I put one bet on using this method. I backed the horse at 9 and laid it at 9. The back bet price was 3. I went onto Betfair 15 mins before the off. The place lay went as low at 2.50 at one point and could have locked in 10% profit, however me being greedy I held out longer but the odds drifted and ended up laying at 2.62.
    Today wasn’t for the profit, more for knowledge and understanding. Today I have learned:
    There are lots of races out there which you can apply this method, just look around first thing in morning.
    DO NOT back a horse too early in the day. I highlighted a race at 8am as one to watch and an hour later 4 horses were non runners.
    I will be working out the lay place amount I need to make 10% profit. If I get that lay price then take, don’t hold out for more.

    I have been getting bored of MB and began to think about jacking it. I thank Beesty for sharing this on the forum. I won’t make 17k as I don’t have the budget but I have found it more fun and feel it will make a good fee hundred a month once I get more into it.

    +0
    beesty2016 7 September 11, 2016 at 6:07 pm

    Nice result Beaker. A good start to it. Once you build your confidence up this will become a natural and there are even more advanced methods you can use especially if your lucky enough to have a bet365 account. I won’t go into them on here as way too confusing but their cash out feature basically means the worst case scneario in any race is a 5% loss should a horse drift between a certain range.

    Just stick to them now and good luck.

    +0
    beakerh 3 September 11, 2016 at 6:21 pm

    What stakes were you doing when you first started out on this? And what we’re you making in an average day? I still have my 365 account but not gubbed yet. The cash out has already crossed my mind for odds drift and non runnerving scenarios.

    +0
    beesty2016 7 September 11, 2016 at 7:30 pm

    I can’t really remember I think I started with a tenner ew as a sample and then very quickly went into 25, 50 and so on. Thats the way to do it beaker sometimes you can cashout at a loss on 365 but if the odds have drifted on the exchange and you’ve only laid the win market you can cashout on this and be up regardless.

    Always a hard one though because one time I did it and lost a huge amount from a potential BOG. That’s what I like about the strategy there are other ways which can help you along the way if done properly.

    My dream but it never happened was for a stewards enquiry and the result to be overturned. One time I had first and second but unfortunately the stewards controversially stayed with the result.

    +0
    beakerh 3 September 11, 2016 at 8:14 pm

    Will consider all that when I use B365. Will learn the basics with WH as I am gubbed with them.

    This is a duplicate of the extra place calculator online but I have done a spreadsheet that works out the calculations. It serves the same purpose but I find it easier toggling between Internet and spreadsheet rather than numerous internet pages. Link is below if anyone wants it. First time I have tried sharing on here so not sure if it will work:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14z0zft3Lpa1pe0Z8DC6AQiO-JDAOxzhYx2yhPZffwoE

    +0
    78naD 4 September 11, 2016 at 10:37 pm

    @beetsy hats off to you my friend, I raise my glas to you for giving up the job and pursing this. I’m only doing this the odd time as the sharbing and MB in shops is flying for me at the moment, but I think I’ll be getting into this in a big way in the shops in the future when the other offers dry up, if they dry up.

    All if the weather is too bad a day for the sharbing in the winter I could always stay indoors for a day and do this.
    Thanks for opening this door for a lot of us Beetsy and good luck to you!

    +0
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