My theory beyond matched betting
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Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.
The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.
For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)
Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.
As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.
Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.
+2June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm
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Ive been sucessfully using this method for around six months as most of my accounts are now gubbed… i have a small select few that can still get £30-£50 ew on horses… i will share some experiences….
1 …. dont be afraid to underlay the place… i have made far more profits by setting the lay where i break even if the horse doesnt place and make larger returns if it does place… in certain races where there is 1 clear fav… 2 around 5/1 and the rest 16-50/1 many times i have laid off the win and let the place part ride…. im getting an evs bet for what is around a 2/5 shot… theses place more often the 1 in every 2… more like 5 from 6 times making it much more profitable.
2 – Certain bookies are scared of these ‘bad ew’ races…. betfred have very poor odds on most of the horses making sharbing hard… take a look at the next race market…. b365, betvictor are usually top priced on a few of the selections
3 – Irish races, look out for big prices steaming in 8-10 mins before the race…. get the win part laid and hold out until 1 min before the race… ive had massive arbs and again i always underlay the place on these because the Irush horses that get punted have a great strike rate at being placed
4 – The dreaded 8 runner race becoming 7!!!
I tend to leave these races alone until 10 mins before race and just before show price… because once prices go to show price all horses get shortened and you lose all value… here you are taking a punt that there is no fun at the gates and one of tge rascals wont go in the stalls… i tend to wait until the last min before laying place… if one does drop out then its upto you to decide whether to lay the place and prey doesnt fin 3rd or just risk ykur place money for a big win or only lose it… i dont lay…. its a big risk for small reward if you do lay…. but its your choice… ive took some big hits between £200- £300 loss when a horse fin 3rd and was gutted … however on otger occasions i still made a small profit where fin 2nd or 4th to 7th…. its all in hindsight of what method is bestGood luck everyone
+0@Dan – Your methods inspire me a lot and often on days where the card is not so favourable I spend my time getting the footy bets on and do 50 ew on the extra place races if odds are ok when walking around. I never have an exact aim in mind but I know I need about 50 a day as this was what I was on before after taxes, student loan etc.
@Supert – You hit a couple of things I am really interested in. I know alot of this is blind luck but I am over 30k down on betfair this year the majority of this is from the method I have been using. My 3% commission which is what I am on I do ask the question am I taking 3% away every time I guarantee the profits. If I can only get on 1 horse on these races then it does make sense to perhaps underlay the place or not lay it altogether. If i get on 2 then things get interesting as quite often 1 places and 1 doesn’t meaning my commission is very low if any due to the crossed results.Also Supert are your gubbed accounts still letting you bet the stakes day after day. Skybet in the end restricted me from a win of 500 to 100 but I am currently using 2 other websites to moderate success to keep what I need ticking over. If it does all go wrong then I will be looking to take this to the shops but at a slightly bigger risk as I could be done to non runners but usually after midday the hits are not too bad so will be looking at getting them on between 12-1 or 12-2 in the high street bookies when they all pay BOG.
The other question mainly to supert is do you find the majority of the time when you get your horses on the price of it shortens more often than drifts?
I am getting close to actually waiting a minute before the race to lay both the win and the place. To do this though I really need a bookie that will give me BOG to protect myself from losses should the price drift.
+0Today’s list
Worcester
5:20
5:50Listowel
2:25?
3:35?Wolverhampton
6:55
Not many races today but still a couple there.
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Careful chaps,
Worcester 5:50 already down to 7 runners so bookies only paying 2 places.
Wolverhampton 6:55 lost a runner as well.
good luck to everyone today, I might have to give it a miss. goddamn real life getting in the way!+0
ps thanks very much beesty for posting these, very interesting to see which races you think are worth a go and a great asset to the community.
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Beasty…. although the horses get smashed in with the bookies they rarely do on the exchanges… purely as so many now are trying to get the win laid off and concentrate on the place arb…. especially where the fav is strongly fancied… i tend to find its the irish horses that get backed on exchanges too!!
I never concern myself with trying to find a win arb … just go for place arb…
I can hardly get anything on these horses with anyone now … knowwhere near what i want to anyway… even exhauseted all my mrs accounts too :( both mine and mrs accounts with coral even £10ew now gets referred to traders in these races and they come back £4 ew @ sp :(
Betvic take around £30-£40 ew paddys i can get on with mine and mrs accounts but seam to not be great prices… like betfred… tend to shy away from these races… however if i can get £40 ew on i have quite often made £20- £40 by underlaying the place …. i used to get around £150-£200 spread over a number of accounts but has all come to a crushing blow…. think its time to change my name move house and get a new girlfriend…. my first question on first date is ‘do you have any online betting accounts love??’ If yes date over … if no ok lets get back to yours and get cracking ha ha!!!+0Beesty, any reason you continue to use betfair as opposed to smarkets?
Is the liquidity far better for this type of bet etc?
I have been using smarkets, and now and again on the tv races where there has been these races, done the type of bets you stated
For example, I was able to extract 20% profit (whatever result) from the total stakes on the st leger, that was laying multiple horses, my bankroll is not big enough to be having a liability of thousands yet
From my experience so far, you need to win bet and lay sorted at least 10 minutes before race, as the prices then shorten, I need to also trust the shortening of the place lay side till nearer the race, yet it could be a coincidence if the horse you have guaranteed 20% already (say 5 minutes before race) just starts steaming in and if you had held on you could be guaranteeing like 40%
At moment I am always guaranteeing whatever, in the view it is all relative long term
I agree on the non runner angle, if in doubt think about the cash out if can and limit losses if have to
Due to having a gambling background and the matched betting side, you get a feel for the amount you have to lay, whether or not the amount is perfect guaranteed or not it is close enough
The part I need to get better at is spotting the opportunities to start with, especially when trying to match bet (tv channel 4 offers) at same time, hence I dont take up too many of the ew opportunities at moment
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Yeah Supert it’s interesting I have been using paddys and will hill and can get on them in the last 7 mins before the race. At this time all bookies seem to go industry wide and the chances are often seconds but I can get on one that is steaming in. At this time I have my 2 screens 1 on the win 1 on the place and my phone screen with the app. I always go for the back first and if it goes through then smash the lay straight away. I then monitor the place market and due to not getting BOG i get out if the place hits the same odds as my bet. If not I get in for whatever a minute or 2 before the start whilst also monitoring others that can come in.
Marv I know betfair is higher commission than Smarkets but I just trust it all a lot more. It’s just a preference thing.
+0I know this is not quite your exact system Beesty, but thought I would mention it
What is your success like with extra places, like where say 16 runners but they pay top 5
I find these types of offers to be really poor to make profits
Naturally the 1/4 odds bet365 is like an extra place when trying to lay the place, but i have much better profits from laying 8/9 runners for 3 places and 16/17 runners for 4 places
I use smarkets mostly and so it really highlights when I have to use betfair for likie top 5 etc, profits are just not as good
Smarkets sometimes have top 4 but mainly it is the 8/9 runners that are more profitable in my opinion
+0Marv – This is how I got into it all. It usually depends on the meeting and the race. If it’s a live channel 4 race then b365 used to be brilliant for it. At Ascot they seemed to do 1 a day and over the course of the week I had 3 goes backing and laying around a 1/3 of the field and was left in a position where I could guarntee 400-500 before the race or 100 v the Jackpot which would be 1300-1700. I did get very lucky that 3 out of 4 times I did hit the jackpot place. Twice it was a dream as it was my only winning bet on b365 but then 2 weeks later the fun ended and the gubbing began.
Sometimes these extra place races do offer very little value as bookies do not give a fair price but there is often one that comes steaming in a few mins before the start if your quick!
+0Just tried doing the 1855 wolverhampton one. It’s the first one I have done where place payout is 1/5 odds from bookmaker. I could not find anything worth putting on as the place market odds weren’t low enough to make any profit. Was it just one of those races, or me doing some thing wrong? Or is it often the case you struggle more where races are paying at 1/5 rather than 1/4 odds?
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I did the same one beakerh. There was definitely profit in it. 10% for sure on the 4th favourite, probably more as I stopped watching the place market for the last 15 mins. However, I wasn’t concentrating properly and flicking between screens whilst also looking after 2 kids.
I ended up forgetting to go EW. Laying the place and then realising I hadn’t gone EW so had to trade out at a loss once I realised. Still, cheap £5 lesson.
My learning points:
1. Identify the race and watch the odds coming in.
2. There will be a golden opportunity to break even for the win, or get a very small loss. If you miss it the bookie will shorten odds or the exchange will drift.
3. Only try this if you can concentrate and not have distractions.
4. Have multiple screens open simultaneously.
5. Be able to do some quick maths in your head.+0
jesus which race were you watching!Poets song backed in from 15/1 down to about 8’s! £40 for £70 ew could of got more, the place went below 2.0!
+0Lovely stuff Dingo it’s amazing when your on a steamer and those place odds just get lower and lower with the profit rising and rising!
+0I started looking about 645pm, like beaser I had kids in the room and couldn’t look before then. I hadn’t even backed a horse and by the time I was looking poets song price was 8 on WH? What time are you guys backing your selections? About 30 mins to the off? I did intend to start looking for a selection earlier, with kids in the house it was can hard work!
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