My theory beyond matched betting

Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

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beesty2016
4

June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm

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navillus 3 September 15, 2016 at 5:48 pm

I must be dense but why back and lay “Secret Number” Can it be explained simply please? If bookies were paying a 1/4 of the odds , did the place lay odds drop bigtime ?
Looking at odds monkey and their tool , “each way matcher” we are usually looking at a few pounds profit or am I missing something?

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beaser 8 September 15, 2016 at 5:57 pm

The value is in the place. Go back through this article to explain why. I got on at 13 and managed to lay at 12.5 as it was on the way down. The place bet was therefore 4 and the lay was at 3.1 I think, so already good value. I kept an eye on the place and got on at 2.6 with 3 mins to go, albeit it fell as low as 2.3 at the very end.

I just wait for the place lay odds to drop close to the end (as they normally do), but have a “line in the sand” to cash out in case they go the wrong way. In this case I decided to cash out if they went up to 3.5 so if still secure a small profit.

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beaser 8 September 15, 2016 at 5:59 pm

Btw on the races I’ve bet on there’s only been one horse this will work on. Maybe in not looking properly or just it hasn’t been the case in that race.

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deathstar 30 September 15, 2016 at 7:25 pm

I think it just depends on the race, the st leger was an absolute goldmine with a massive arb on almost every horse. I made over £100 with a few £25 e/w stakes. Today I only found one horse ( in the 3pm) and made a tenner. Then again, I didn’t look very hard.

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beaser 8 September 16, 2016 at 6:37 pm

Hmm. Just hit another winner. £50 e/w at 17. All for £11 guarenteed. That’s about £3k I’ve won off the bookies in 3 days. As good as this is it’s been a disaster for my exchange management.

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beaser 8 September 16, 2016 at 6:38 pm

Has anyone else noticed a disproportionate amount of winners? Or have I just been unlucky?

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Pickle 61 September 16, 2016 at 7:29 pm

My 30 day profit on smarkets was running at over -£7k the other day. Prob the main reason sky gubbed me.

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beaser 8 September 16, 2016 at 7:43 pm

Yeah. As good as this is, I think the returns are relatively small compared to how fast I will lose the bookies. I’m not sure I’ll be doing this daily any more…

As always, it’s taught me more about the markets and possibly better opportunities.

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Dave_Jones 9 September 16, 2016 at 7:59 pm

What do you guys think about the following and if you have the data what difference would it make to your bottom line.

If the place part of the E/W bet at the exchange is showing a good arb, don’t lay it. Although this is going to increase variance I think it should prove to be more profitable, and you don’t have to worry about non runners and end up loosing at the bookie and the exchange.

I guess the down side is that we are no longer match betting or we are only matching the win part, and if we have a tight float things could get difficult if we get a string of losses.

As mentioned above it would be good if some people who have done a lot of these could look at their stats and see if this would be a good idea.

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beaser 8 September 16, 2016 at 8:07 pm

Im put off by straight punts to be honest, but then I suppose you could argue it’s a value bet? Certainly from my experience this week I would be several hundred in profit as opposed to about £70.

That said of course, the £70 is risk free…

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Dave_Jones 9 September 16, 2016 at 8:09 pm

@beaser when you say

“I just wait for the place lay odds to drop close to the end (as they normally do)”

Does this happen often enough that you could trade this on the exchange and not have to worry about getting gubbed at the bookies, but use the bookies to help you select the correct candidates.

What I mean is you spot a place arb lets say between B365 and betfair, but you back the place part at betfair and then wait for the lay to fall very close to the off. You would need to have some kind of stop loss figured out incase it starts to drift. Do you think you could make money doing this?

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beaser 8 September 16, 2016 at 8:13 pm

I may have been premature with that comment! I’ve had several go against me since!

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beaser 8 September 16, 2016 at 8:15 pm

But you may have something, I’ve been jumping on a few with perhaps less than ideal circumstances as I’ve been keen to try this out. If the circumstances are right it MAY be more predictable….

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Marv 2 September 17, 2016 at 12:00 pm

Beaver, I saw the secret number race, I managed to make a small profit on another runner so was thankful to not have got on secret number, it was on bet365 though who were only 1/5 odds, are you seeing other bookies going a 1/4

Noticed a few sharbs today, just started to look at the possibility of doing this

Everton 1.8 Hills / 1.65 Smarkets

Newcastle 1.727 Ladbrokes / 1.52 Smarkets

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feltt1p 7 September 17, 2016 at 1:35 pm

If those are coupons Marv, then no. They are out of date and you’ll get reduced odds.

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