My theory beyond matched betting

Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

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beesty2016
4

June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm

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Marv 2 September 27, 2016 at 2:23 pm

So yes I do think it is very hard to find good ones when 1/5 of odds

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Traider 0 October 4, 2016 at 8:24 pm

Anyone else get on Capton in the 8.10 at Kempton?

Backed at 8.0/9.0 E/W, but place odds were effectively 2.75/1.5.

Like printing money!

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supert 6 October 4, 2016 at 11:30 pm

Yeah but am so restricted with coral they only let me have £35ew … gutted… they were only ones offering 1/4 odds.
Didnt get the best value thou 8/9.6 on win 2.75/1.65 place but i always underlay the place so i only break even on the whole bet ie. Get my £70 back if unplaces so still made £30 …
Got the 2nd too… cry wolf but again tried to have £50ew @ 15.0 but was restricted to £20 ew … 15/18.5 but 3.8/2.5 place before it drifted right out…. still £14 profit on that one just from £20ew!!

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Bazza74 9 October 8, 2016 at 9:30 pm

Today was the first time i attempted this. Staked £100.

I had £50 win @ 8/7.80 and won 39p and £50 e/w @ 2.75/2.61 and won £2.03. So only won £2.42 🙂 small acorns and oak trees spring to mind.

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bryan92 0 October 9, 2016 at 12:28 pm

Hi. i tried this yesterday and today looking at the odds aswell but i cant find any with the type of profit that is being said on this thread. How do you choose which ones you are going to bet on and how do you know that the odds are gonna go down?

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arb 6 October 9, 2016 at 1:04 pm

I’m sure that if anyone “knows the odds are going to go down” they’ll be far too busy making millions to post on this forum… 😉

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Bazza74 9 October 9, 2016 at 9:56 pm

I get the gist of this now. But one thing i don’t really grasp is the quote beesty put in his first post.

Beesty Quote.
“The other biggest risk is a last minute non runner which takes the field down to less than 8 or 16 and thus deducting a place. Never got done over by this but there were 2 occasions over the month where I had to ride the race out and a horse finishing 3rd or 4th could have hit me for around a grand”

i thought if you back the win/ew bet at the bookies and lay the win and lay the place on the exchanges to lock in a profit. How does the last minute non runner effect it. I thought you would already have a guaranteed profit. Can someone explain it just a bit more in detail.

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beaser 8 October 9, 2016 at 10:51 pm

Because for 8 runners the bookies pay 3 places, as do the exchange. However, if one drops out the bookies will only pay 2 places, but the exchange will still pay for 3. Hence, if your horse finishes 3rd you lose at both the bookie and the exchange.

Basically it’s the opposite of the extra place offers! Make sense?

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deathstar 30 October 10, 2016 at 4:33 am

Beaser’s exactly right, I got stung by this yesterday. Had a horse come fourth but there was a non-runner so the bookie changed the terms of the e/w part of the bet to 3 places, where the exchange remained 4 places.
Should have been up £8, instead i’m down £60.

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arb 6 October 10, 2016 at 8:13 am

Does anyone know the rationale for the exchange not making the same adjustment in the number of places paid out?

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FoG_BLoG 60 October 10, 2016 at 8:34 am

Well arb, its specifically states on the market in the exchange (Top 3 or Top 4). I suppose it makes more sense, ppl are backing and laying a horse to finish in the Top 4, can’t really change the bet after a whole bunch of money is already accepted in the market. And the exchange will be fair here as it will reduce the liability by the percentage difference that the non-runner represents.

When this happens can you back out of it?

You would have to back the Top 4 place on the exchange (probably a big gap in the odds you layed at – so looking at a loss) and then lay the correct place market on the exchange if they have it (Top 3), betfair usually have a few different place markets. I know you will probably still be down a little, but I personally wouldn’t like to have 1000 on the line for a horse finishing 4th!

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deathstar 30 October 10, 2016 at 9:15 am

The exchange doesn’t go with the traditional bookie rules, if you bet on the place market, that’s exactly what it is whereas e/w at the bookies you accept they can change the terms, same as rule 4.

its one of those thing. I could have backed out at smarks and then laid at betfair on the 3 places markets, or I could have waited longer to lay the place and decided what to do if/when the non runner showed up, possibly let it ride. but in my specific case I had other horses in the same race so I was more or less break even if I hit the place. I lost about a fiver in the end. it was a gamble on whether one of mine came fourth and unfortunately one did. And to add insult to injury, one of them won as well wiping my exchange out.
I just thought I’d mention it as beesty hasn’t seemed to have fallen foul of it yet. (lucky git!)

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beesty2016 4 October 10, 2016 at 10:44 am

@deathstar it has happened to me twice once 3 weeks ago and 2 weeks ago wiping out 120 and 160 on both occasions. Had another one last week but horse came 2nd so actually made a small profit as it was 1/4 instead of a 1/5. It’s all part of it though and a hit you have to take at times.

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deathstar 30 October 10, 2016 at 11:21 am

unlucky beesty. as you say, swings and roundabouts. I’ve still won more money than ive lost so its not going to stop me.

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supert 6 October 10, 2016 at 11:51 am

I hope everyone was backing ew in the irish caesarwich yesterday!!! So many ew arb opportunities!!!
I had six horses in the race where i had potential profits if the horse placed or broke even if horse didnt place!!
You could have had laws of spin 13.0/9.8 at 8.30 am on b365 and the chance of £50 free in next feature race
Place odds were 4.0/2.8 … near the off!!!
My other 5 horses actually came nowhere breaking even except 1 where i took £13 profit…watersprite was 34/23 win arb and 9.25/5.5 place arb £20 ew i got … didnt want to take the piss too much lol!!!
How you guys cant spot these or can only make pennies is beyond me???
I have so few accounts i dont even bother with the small profits from matched betting anymore i just make between £50 – £100 per day from races like this!!
Laws of spin netted me around £140 plus a free £50 b365 bet …. could have been much more if fully underlaid but had took around £20 profit if failed to place!!

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