Betfair Each Way edge
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So I just noticed this gizmo.
On betfair when you are placing an each way bet you can adjust the terms if you want.
For example I can bet on Top Tug in Catterick 14:20 today odds 3.25. Standard place terms are 1/5 odds, 3 places.
This is almost value as you’re getting odds 3.25/1.45 for the win/place(3) on the bookie and the lays are at 3.7/1.27 on the exchange.
BUT
If I toggle the Each Way Edge widget to only pay two places then this will increase the odds to 4.33! Giving 4.33/1.67 for the win/place(2), where the lays are 3.7/1.59 (2 to place). Which is better value.
Maybe its something someone wants to look into, but at least at first glance on this example looks like you can stretch the value you get e/w arbing by using the edge.
Anyone use this feature regularly?
+0January 12, 2017 at 11:58 am
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Lay at 24, it will be gobbled up in no time. Less than a minute for me.
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Lots of liquidity for Marino Marvel now
+0Shake The Bucket, Marino Marvel and Eight and Bob here – fingers crossed!
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Same here lewi
Potential ew arb in the 20.20 race on Game Puppetteer. 17.0 at Betfair and Betstars. Not great liquidity at the moment and could drift at the exchange due to strong(ish) favourite.
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Well that was a massive let down
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Really annoyed at Talsara coming second. Betfair were best price on that allllllll day but the lay odds never came in so I left it alone. Grrrrrrr.
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To say the least!
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Lovely arb on Game Puppetteer now if anyone got on? Underlayed the place.
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Lame. Not my day.
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Not dogs day either…good tip tho Fog ill keep an eye out for races tomorrow and saturday then, especially on this thread.
Am I right thinking the 4 place 1/4 odds races are the ones to go for generally?
+0Fog, are you still definitely restricted to that low amount say less than 15 minutes before the race, I know at that time the chances of getting on at good prices are not great, but there are opportunities
I find the restrictions are very much relaxed within half an hour of the race, I have compared many dummy bets are various times of the day and so there is a pattern
Also, these irish races in week are poor for liquidity, which may also mean betfair are tighter on restrictions earlier in the day, compared to the bigger meetings like on saturdays etc
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Agree with you Marv on restrictions and their timings, I’ve noticed the same particularly with my second bet on that each way edge race tonight.
Slightly disagree with you on Irish liquidity. The paddys are well known for betting late particularly at the racecourses and they tend to lump a load of money on 5-10 minutes before the off. No idea why this occurs. Anyway, you should notice the exchange wakes up at the same time. Demonstrated tonight in the 20.20 race. The tip I gave was still on offer at 17 at Betfair around 20.10. It was laying at 23 which had me worried but lo and behold a few minutes later the liquidity appeared and it went to 19 then 18 then 17, I actually arbed the win part to and layed at 16.
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Yes matchedem, we ideally want 16 runners + handicap races whereby the bookies will go 1/4 odds on first 3 or 4 places.
+0All – it has to be said that this has been one of the most interesting posts and thks to Fog-Blog for that.
I did exchange some comments re calculations for a horse coming 2nd with Fog-Blog and one or others not so long ago and have since used the info that I have gleaned in order to construct a spreadsheet that will calculate the ‘Estimated Value’ of any given each way edge. The link for this is below if anyone is interested.
I should welcome any feedback as regards the calcs for the odds on 2nd place – I am pretty certain every other calculation is ok and it’s only that of the 2nd place that is up for debate.
To arrive at the 2nd place probability for the horse concerned I have
– Taken the lay win odds of the horse and worked out the corresponding each way price accordingly.
– I have then increased these odds by a factor (I guess this can be dated at length) which is based on the number of horses in the race.
– I then take the place odds that have been calculated and deduct the win odds from them and the result is the probability of 2nd place (I think)Effectively this is often telling me that there are lots of opportunities on 16+ races that are to 4 places where even when I overlay a little (I hate making small losses on races) long term you can make a profit.
Fog-Blog I know we exchanged emails and your thoughts were that the 2nd place odds could be worked using the win odds when working out probability. However I have tried to be a bit more scientific about this and if you can find the time I should be grateful for your feedback since I guess it’s quite possible that I could be kidding myself with the figures and perhaps I have just been very lucky thus far with my small overlays to always ensure a profit unless the horse wins. This week thus far I am in profit for circa £200+ using this methodology on stakes of £5 each way.
Anyway I trust I have not bored you all with this and any feedback re the calculation I am using for 2nd place would be most welcome.
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tennispunter, I dont seem to have access to your s/s.
One way to check if your estimate for 2nd is accurate is add up the probs. One and only one horse can come second so the total prob should be 100%. And the better horses should be more likely than the worse horses.
Its just academic though, as its quite easy to see that this offer is value without calculating the EV to the penny.
I did an exercise in calculating 2nd place for virtual races based on the win odds. So you remove the win odds for one horse and then readjust the odds on the rest of the horses to 100% giving new odds for the rest of the horses coming next given the one horse wins. Do it for removing each horse and prob 2nd is the sum of the products or something.
For example a 3 horse race with prices A=6/5, B=2/1, C=3/1 implies win probs of 45%, 33% and 25%. But adjust to account of the overround just simple divide by total prob for more mathematically true probs of winning of 44%, 32% and 24%.
So the prob that horse A is 2nd = P[B Wins] * P[A without B] + P[C wins] * P[A without C].
For P[A without C] I take C out of the market – leaving me two horses with 45 prob and 32 prob. Total is 87 and scale up all the prices of all the horses except C by dividing by .87 gives me new prices for betting without C with a true prob in the sense it sums to 100% and the strengths of the horses relative to eachother are in the same proportion as the original market.
I’m not sure what ppl think of this estimate for 2nd, definitely overkill for this discussion but was useful.
I was using it for virtual races to get some estimates as paddy were doing money back 2nd on virtuals in shops. But for real races you can probably find markets on the bookies and base estimates off betting without markets, or top 2 finish or whatever.
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