Betfair Each Way edge
-
So I just noticed this gizmo.
On betfair when you are placing an each way bet you can adjust the terms if you want.
For example I can bet on Top Tug in Catterick 14:20 today odds 3.25. Standard place terms are 1/5 odds, 3 places.
This is almost value as you’re getting odds 3.25/1.45 for the win/place(3) on the bookie and the lays are at 3.7/1.27 on the exchange.
BUT
If I toggle the Each Way Edge widget to only pay two places then this will increase the odds to 4.33! Giving 4.33/1.67 for the win/place(2), where the lays are 3.7/1.59 (2 to place). Which is better value.
Maybe its something someone wants to look into, but at least at first glance on this example looks like you can stretch the value you get e/w arbing by using the edge.
Anyone use this feature regularly?
+0January 12, 2017 at 11:58 am
-
-
New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
I just did it for the Cork race tomorrow plugged in the betfair odds in my virtual racing s/s and first thing I noticed was that the overround is totally crazy on betfair’s odds! Bearing in mind a fair book the implied probs add up to 100%, but on betfair early prices for this race the total adds to 147%!
The next thing I notice is that my estimate for 2nd is within half a percent of the implied odds for first. So tennispunter I really think in big races like this without a short odds favourite then the prob of winning based on the odds is as close an estimate to prob of 2nd as you are going to get. If your probability estimate for 2nd is way off the prob of winning then maybe review your idea.
+0Thanks Fog-Blog (FB) as ever for your considered and speedy response.
Firstly my apologies to you and others for not making the spreadsheet link available as I had first thought last night. Hopefully those of you who have requested access now have it?
I think my spreadsheet uses an element of what you have suggested FB but if you do get a chance to examine it further then that would be great.
I have found it quite surprising that there are positive EV’s on many horses using this methodology even when the odds are not perhaps as close as one would like e.g. recently I chose a horse with win odds of 12 (4 places 1/4 odds). Using the edge facility this then became odds of 19 to 2 places.
My spreadsheet shows that even when to lay the horse at odds of say 15/16 it’s still positive EV – it even shows a positive EV when overlaying which is the method that I prefer albeit I know that at some point I will have to take a hit just as those of you who do from time to time when not laying off your ACCA’s
There is even a positive EV on some of the races to 3 places at 1/5 odds albeit these in my experience thus far are not quite so good.
+0
I think you need to be careful. Like you said you might be fooling yourself about the EV of some of these.
The example there with a 10 horse race and horse with lay odds of 10.5. You estimate the prob of win is 9%, which is fine. But the estimate you have for prob 2nd is 21%. Seems way too high for me. Which means you are expecting positive EV for many horses which will be way way less likely to hit 2nd than you estimate.
Do me a favour and fill in the odds for all the horses in the race and add up your probs for 2nd. If you are accurate then it will be close to 100%.
Not sure where the over estimation is coming from. You are using 1/5 odds and then adjusting by a small percent. I think to start off reducing price by 1/5 is reducing the price way too much and hence increasing the estimate of the prob way too much.
I think the best way to play this anyway is to wait for a big race and take qualifying profit. There is no value in taking horses of marginal positive expected value because it will lead to restrictions for the sake of pennies and then you will miss the real profitable opportunities where you get a horse at prices like 12/12 or 19/12 with the boost or even one where you can get an arb on the win price even before the edge.
+0What is the best time to look at these races?
I tried a couple on the 17:00 at Redcar yesterday but had to take a small QL on them 15(to26)/18
Gettign a close match on a big handicap early in the day is not easy.
+0
I used to try and get on early for the bonus of a non runner. But it’s not worth it. Probably added to my stake restrictions.
Wait to close to the off like we did at the clonmel race there yesterday. You will be allowed a bigger stake and the odds move quite quickly and plenty of liquidity in the last 10 mins. And you will blend in much better with the normal punters.
+0
Couple of questions Fog or Chris.
Does a non runner effect the price in the same way…that is rule 4?
And what happens if a 16 runner 1/4 odds race goes down to 15 runners and you have chosen to edge 2 places? This is quite apt looking at the TV races tomorrow
+0
If a non runner then you get win only and the price stays same as your enhanced.
E.g.
16 horse race and you’re on Mr Fact at 12 (edged to 19)/12.0. With 1/4 1-2 for place terms.
Horse withdraws so standard terms reduce to 3 places. You’re on ew -2 so your terms are now win only. So you have odds of 19 (minus any rule 4)/12.0(minus smarkets reduction factor).
So you’re on a big arb for the win. Lay more to guarantee profit or leave it the way you already layed for risk free big payout if wins.
+0Get regular offer updates, tip and tricks, big offer alerts and more straight to your inbox.
Rule 4 deductions would still apply but the beauty of this is, if the race becomes 15 runners or less, your edge to 2 places becomes win only at the enhanced odds so you have effectively created a massive arb and are now looking for 1st place for a big win.
+0
You beat me to it Fog :)
+0
Great news…so whereas the standard extra place races can be a nightmare to fall to 15 we actually want this to! Thanks for the explanation
What time is Mr Fact running?
+0
I’m loading up on the 3.50 Chepstow race. Got two horses covered for extra place at Paddy, one at Sky and one so far for Betfair Edge.
+0
struggling to find much edge value on that 1 factually so far. will keep looking
+0
Yep the best prices have gone. I got on Lightoller at 17.0 (23) and Legendoire at 15.0 (21). Layed off easily.
+0There is no ‘edge’ value in the 3:50. Because it’s only 3 places originally the enhancements aren’t big enough. You’d need a decent arb, in that scenario the value is in the arb not the edge.
Scrap that. Didn’t realise the first jump on 3 place races was bigger. Might be some value but probs have to take bigger QLs.
+0
No QL losses here MbPunter, I’ve got two risk free shots at second places that will pay out £200+ if they come in and if either horse wins I still make a small return on my stakes.
If thats not value then I dont know what is.
All about the timing.
+0
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.
