Acca Profit Spreadsheet
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Hi All
I’ve been racking my brain most of the day trying to come up with a spreadsheet that generates the correct lay stakes to guarantee the expected value profit of a 6 fold acca.
After a lot of trial/error I think I’ve got something that works.
The spreadsheet can be accessed here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gBiVP9tC1wIP-jwv_ps0uMqr-mZSPYRt-TOPkHDWHsc/edit#gid=432786789
If someone can check I’ve got this right it would be appreciated as I’d like to start doing these over the next week or so.Thanks
+0February 27, 2016 at 6:41 pm
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Patrick, again?
Firstly, where do you statistics on gubbings come from? Do you have any solid evidence for your theory? Is it just from hearing on forums like this of people being restricted? Or from your own set of bookmaker accounts? Hardly a big sample pot. Look on the MSE forums, which date back over 10 years, and you’ll see this is nothing new!
Remember, the world doesn’t end at your front door! Bookies have been restricting punters for decades. You need to get over it.
As for the acca refund offers, they are going nowhere anytime soon
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Not sure if I’m missing something, but it seems quite difficult to actually guarantee a profit with the acca insurance. Surely you need the back and lay odds to be very close and there’s no real way of knowing if those odds will change by the time you come to lay the bet on each leg? Am I missing something obvious?
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What a condescending outlook you have on the world, Patrick.
Are you just here to gain from all us “idiots” posting offers? Do you contribute anything to this forum?
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@BobbyP As Jez would say, it’s a “piece o’ piss” to make profit from accas consistently. There’s low, close odds every week. You just pack your accas full of those and simply choose a different leg to end on for every day after. Of course the odds can change, but over the long run you will find just as many drop in odds and give you higher profit. Finally, as has been shown before, the margin is seriously large… You’d need a huge swing in odds before you even get close to breakeven point for one accumulator. Even having 1.25/1.32 for six legs doesn’t lose money!
Blindly choosing the top matches this week for odds <1.5 on Hills (which don’t overlap) gives you +£11.
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Cheers Mark, will start putting this into action!
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Maybe Titanbet is a good place to start practicing your acca’s?
They are doing money back on 4-fold acca’s.
Some problems though:
max €10 (small stakes might not be a problem for someone trying to get the hang of it).
Each leg min odds 1.4, a lot of the examples I have seen listed here have shorter odds than that, but still if you get a good match at those odds its not a problem.
Full terms:
Place a 4-fold bet on any sporting events of your choice and if one selection lets you down we will refund your stake as a free bet token.
Minimum qualifying bet is €1. Max refund as free bet token is €10 per bet.
Combined odds of accumulator must have odds of at least 4/1 (5.0), each leg must have minimum odds of 2/5 (1.4)
Wagers placed using free bets do not count, system bets do not count, only straight 4-fold accumulator are valid for this promotion.
If in an accumulator bet, one or more legs are made void or the match postponed meaning the bet has fewer than 4 eligible selections, this bet will not qualify.
If more than one bet is placed on the same event then only one of those bets will count as a qualifying bet towards this promotion.+0Get regular offer updates, tip and tricks, big offer alerts and more straight to your inbox.
Or even better they do acca insurance on tennis & baseball trebles – max refund €10, min odds per leg 1.3 for tennis, 1.8 for baseball..
The max bet is probably limitting for experts but these might be good place to start for acca beginners. Might give it a go myself.
+0hi Mark
I agree with BobbyP. Ive put odds of 1.25 and 1.32 in to Jez’s 6 fold acca with a stake of £25 and the first leg losing and it shows a profilt of -£0.31Apologies if im missing something very obvious
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Titanbet still don’t accept Irish customers 🙁
I knew there was a reason I hadn’t joined them before.
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I was using the assumption of 85% extraction of a free bet. I assume this is the difference. The 1.25/1.32 example was an extreme case… there’s plenty of permutations available at the moment which guarantee £11+ profit.
If you include the 10% bonus from Hills, even 1.25/1.33 doesn’t lose money.
Here’s a selection of teams you might find useful this week:
Juventus 1.57/1.55
Arsenal 1.36/1.36
Man City 1.22/1.23
Napoli 1.18/1.20
Utrecht 1.12/1.14
Celtic 1.17/1.20
Sevilla 1.40/1.44
Real Madrid 1.33/1.36
Plzen 1.20/1.23
Barcelona 1.20/1.24+0
Low, close odds are key. You can choose to stop laying if you like – any strategy is fine.
+0Where can I find the titanbet acca’s ? jut cant seem to find them lol
I was browsing last night and found a golf acca now I cant remember which bookie was offering this
It must be my age! memory going 🙂
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madgolfer.
Im not sure that I am seeing the same promotions as ppl in the UK because I can’t see the midweek premier league refund offer. But I can see alot of acca refund offers on their promotions page. But when I click to join they tell me that their sporstbook is not available for my territory. I am in Ireland.
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