Acca Profit Spreadsheet
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Hi All
I’ve been racking my brain most of the day trying to come up with a spreadsheet that generates the correct lay stakes to guarantee the expected value profit of a 6 fold acca.
After a lot of trial/error I think I’ve got something that works.
The spreadsheet can be accessed here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gBiVP9tC1wIP-jwv_ps0uMqr-mZSPYRt-TOPkHDWHsc/edit#gid=432786789
If someone can check I’ve got this right it would be appreciated as I’d like to start doing these over the next week or so.Thanks
+0February 27, 2016 at 6:41 pm
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Cheers Fog that must be it
+0Thanks for the sheet. I guess paddy is a good place to start to practice/get some experience.
5 fold and min odds of 1.2 and £50.
+0Going to give Jez’s spreadsheet a go with 20 quid on will hills. Is there any tips for maximising profit ie use higher odds etc or just fire up odds monkey and find as close matches as possible.
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@jamiea oddsmonkey can be useful, but not always the best fit the Acca’s – it can sometimes be misleading if you’re looking more than 24hrs in advance as there isn’t always a good exchange market established yet. I often use teams like rangers or hibs in my Acca’s, but 2days before it’s impossible to tell what the lay stakes will be as there isn’t much money traded on them – I just check that the odds are comparable to other bookies and take the risk – it’s worked out OK so far.
If you just use odds monkey you’ll miss some of these games+0Cheers mate, is it worth going for low odds such as 1.2s or a bit higher or a mixture for the most profit?
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Just read the previous threads. In theory, you want to maximise the probability that exactly one leg loses – this maximises your value and guaranteed profit. i.e. If you can back 1.00 / 1.00 on 5 legs and infinite / infinite on the final leg you will secure the full £50. In a nutshell, if the first 5 legs are all below 1.25, it is actually optimal to go for the final leg above 1.25.
+0Mark a couple of months ago you were not laying these accas but then you did some analysis that showed that the variance could be far higher than you originally thought. I came across the following excel formula which calculates the number of consecutive losses one can have in a set number of trials. Was it something like this you were using?
=1 – binomdist(0, x – y + 1, z^y, false)
where,
x = number of trials
y = number of consecutive losses
z = probability of losses in single trial.For example, x = 50, y = 10, z = 0.6, then
1 – binomdist(0, 41, 0.6^10, false) = 22%
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Not quite. Essentially I did some basic Monte Carlo simulations in R to estimate risk of ruin, making a few assumptions.
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thanks guys for the effort you put in to share your work sheets its much appreciated & ill be trialing these sometime soon thanks to you guys
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Was the spreadsheet taken down? 😮
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Mark,
I really need a touch if assistance here lol once i do one with the sheet ill be on my way. Ok i understand to put amount of stake, FB extraction % of what i believe i can extract from free bet if it occurs, bonus at will hill for 6 acca is 10% , commission of what exchange your using , i then do my filtered search on oddsmonkey put my back and lay odds as tight as i can possibly get then i do tests to see different combinations by imputting win or lose even if they all win im getting negative numbers for profit resulting in a loss what is it im doing wrong?
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Johnboy – are you typing a %sign in the box for fb extraction or bonus? If so, try it without (type 85 rather than 85%)
+0Make sure the actual lay boxes are empty. I had the same issue until I realised
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Thanks guys I’ll have another play later and get back. One thing i did see was the copy 6 leg page that someone was currently doing at the time and profit numbers were looking pretty decent and not much difference to my odds so knew something wasnt quite right
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